the aral sea case study

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The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia. This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate, there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters. Summer temperatures can reach 60 ο C (140 ο F)! The Aral Sea’s water supply is mainly from the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, which carry snowmelt from mountainous areas. In the early 1960s, the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or white gold to become a major export. They were successful, and today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately, this action eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

In 1960, the Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to rivers’ evaporation and lack of recharge. Before 1965, the Aral Sea received 2060 km 3  of fresh water per year from rivers, and by the early 1980s, it received none. By 2007, the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size, and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is three times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead, as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large fishing boats lie in the dried-up lakebed of dust and salt. A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns, causing various respiratory illnesses, including tuberculosis.

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003, some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea, and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake nearly disappearing for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. The Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human water diversions include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake in California.

Introduction to Environmental Sciences and Sustainability Copyright © 2023 by Emily P. Harris is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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Conflict over water in the aral sea.

Environmental degradation of the Aral Sea in Central Asia has caused a loss of livelihoods and led to resource competition over water amongst the states sharing the basin, especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conflict over water has been non-violent and mostly diplomatic, and while several agreements have been made to jointly address the environmental problems of the Aral Sea, challenges remain in adopting an integrated regional approach to its protection.

• Turkmenistan

Conceptual Model

Conflict history, interstate dependencies and tensions.

An intricate web of resource interdependency exists between the five riparian states of the Aral Sea and its rivers. The two main rivers feeding the Aral Sea (Amu Darya and Syr Darya) flow through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan downstream to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan ( Wolf & Newton, 2014 ). The latter three countries rely heavily on the Aral Sea and its tributaries for large-scale Soviet-era irrigation projects to grow cotton. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lack natural gas and oil deposits, making them reliant on hydropower for energy production ( Dinar et al., 2007 ; Roll et al., 2005 ). The upstream countries thus have an incentive to release water during the cold winter months, when energy demand is greatest. The downstream countries, by contrast, mostly need water during the hot summer months for irrigation. A Soviet-era deal, however, ensured that upstream states released water in the summer in exchange for gas deliveries by downstream states.

This arrangement broke down following the collapse of the USSR, as states sought to secure resources unilaterally. Water releases from upstream dams shifted towards prioritising upstream energy needs rather than downstream summer irrigation needs, particularly as energy prices for upstream states rose ( Pohl et al., 2017 ). Although there have been some transboundary agreements towards comprehensive Aral Sea resource management (see Conflict Resolution), these agreements have been successful to varying degrees, and tensions have erupted between the Central Asian states.

In 1998, a water-energy exchange was agreed upon between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan with the upper riparian state of Kyrgyzstan. However, conflict arose when these obligations were not met. For example, when Kazakhstan failed to meet the energy requirements of the agreement, Kyrgyzstan cut water flows from its reservoir as a result ( Dinar et al., 2007 ). In 1999, Uzbekistan deployed 130,000 troops on the Kyrgyz border to guard the reservoirs which were threatened by Taliban and Islamist militants in the area ( Dinar et al., 2007 ).

Water management and climate change impacts

Excessive water diversion from the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya has caused the Aral Sea to lose more than three quarters of its surface area between 1960 and 1990. At the same time, its surface area shrunk by more than half, while salinity tripled ( Calder & Lee, 1995 ; GRID-Arendal, 2009 ; Wolf & Newton, 2014 ). These have had significant impacts on livelihoods and human security. With the collapse of the fishing industry during the 1980s, tens of thousands lost their jobs. Along with a historically heavy use of pesticides, many have also suffered from poor health as a result of poisonous dust storms and contaminated water ( Roll et al., 2005 ; UNEP, 2014 ).

Furthermore, climate change has been flagged as a potential inflammatory contributor to water scarcity and tensions around the Aral Sea. Its impacts include glacial melting in the mountain ranges of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan which feed the Aral Sea, ultimately increasing the occurrence of flooding and contributing to overall soil degradation and long-term water scarcity ( UNEP, 2014 ) . Such events could increase in frequency and intensity as glacial retreat and precipitation extremes are projected to rise over many parts of Central Asia ( IPCC, 2021 ).

Conflict resolution

Regional cooperation.

To save the Aral Sea and prevent environmental degradation from further affecting livelihoods and human security, regional cooperation between all stakeholder countries is essential. Indeed, the region was regarded as an example for transboundary water cooperation during a UN Security Council open debate on water, peace and security in 2016 ( Mirimanova et al., 2018 ).

Shortly after the collapse of the USSR, the five states around the Aral Sea and its rivers agreed to establish a regional committee to manage water allocation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins. This regional committee eventually became the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) in 1992, responsible for water allocation and dispute resolution mechanisms among the five countries ( Barghouti, 2006 ).

In 1993, all five countries signed the “ Agreement on Joint Actions for Addressing the Problems of the Aral Sea and its Coastal Area, Improving of the Environment and Ensuring the Social and Economic Development of the Aral Sea. ” This agreement saw the establishment of the Interstate Council for the Aral Sea (ICAS) in the same year, whose primary responsibility was to formulate policies regarding resource management in the Aral Sea. To manage funds contributed by member states to manage the Aral Sea, the International Fund for the Aral Sea (IFAS) was created in 1994. Owing to inter-institutional competition for dominance and a lack of trust, the ICAS was merged into the IFAS in 1998 in an attempt to centralise governance. However, the IFAS suffered a three-year hiatus because of disagreements amongst members about its credibility and management of multi-sectoral interests (Wolf & Newton, 2014).

Bilateral and trilateral agreements were also reached. For example, the Syr Darya Framework Agreement was signed between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 1998 (and later with Tajikistan in 1999). The treaty offers compensation to Kyrgyzstan through energy-water exchanges for the hydropower it forfeits to provide downstream riparians with water. Amu Darya River Basin Agreements were also signed with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with similar energy-water exchanges ( Dinar et al., 2007 ).

In addition to these regional agreements and their corresponding institutions, the riparian countries also sought international support to establish the Aral Sea Basin Program (ASBP) in 1994 ( Barghouti, 2006 ). The ASBP is a consortium that includes the EU, UNDP, UNEP, World Bank and other international agencies, and was responsible for the management of long-term solutions to the environmental emergency in the Aral Sea ( Dinar et al., 2007 ) . Now in its fourth phase, the ASBP has made some success in mobilising support, defining actions to stabilise the environment around the Aral Sea, and restoring parts of the basin, although gaps have been identified in terms of addressing local interests as well as the root causes of poor water management ( Barghouti, 2006 ; ECIFAS, n.d. ).

While progress has been made in promoting regional cooperation, states still pursue bilateral and unilateral decisions outside of the regional framework, prioritising their individual economic security over regional development. For example, states continue to announce plans to build their own dams and reservoirs without considering regional development and states have a poor track record of keeping their obligations under various bilateral and multilateral agreements. In other words, resource competition is still evident and environmental degradation continues to destabilise livelihoods and resource access.

Nevertheless, common interest in the survival of the Aral Sea is evident in the varying multilateral agreements and treaties signed amongst the Central Asian states. Resource dependency amongst stakeholders has also helped prevent all-out resource wars ( Dinar et al., 2007 ). Moreover, it should be noted that the costs of inaction in transboundary water management could go well beyond those directly linked to water management, affecting energy security, regional trade, and access to international finance ( Pohl et al., 2017 ). Challenges remain, however, in adopting an integrated regional approach to Aral Sea protection which overcomes overlapping jurisdictions and institutional responsibilities ( UNEP, 2014 ; Wolf & Newton, 2014).

Such challenges in developing a region-wide legal framework for the Aral Sea may thus call for alternative dispute resolution and prevention tools such as dialogue and mediation ( Mirimanova et al., 2018 ). In this regard, the UN, specifically through the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) could play an important role in promoting preventive diplomacy and cooperation in the Aral Sea ( UNRCCA, 2019 ), through, for example, capacity building among stakeholders from the region’s water and energy sectors ( UNRCCA, 2021 ).

Resilience and Peace Building

Treaty/agreement.

In 1993, following the creation of the Interstate Commission of Water Coordination, the “Agreement on Joint Actions for Addressing the Problems of the Aral Sea and its Coastal Area, Improving of the Environment and Ensuring the Social and Economic Development of the Aral Sea” was signed by all five states around the Aral Sea. Agreements have also been made at the bilateral and trilateral levels.

Cooperation

The UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) could play an important role in promoting preventive diplomacy and cooperation in the Aral Sea, for example, through capacity building among stakeholders from the region’s water and energy sectors.

Challenges in developing a region-wide legal framework for the Aral Sea may call for alternative dispute resolution and prevention tools such as dialogue.

Mediation & arbitration

Challenges in developing a region-wide legal framework for the Aral Sea may call for alternative dispute resolution and prevention tools such as mediation.

Resources and Materials

• Barghouti, S. (2006). Case Study of the Aral Sea Water and Environmental Management Project: An independent evaluation of the World Bank's support of regional programs. IEG Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Bank.
• Calder, J. & Lee, J. (1995). ARALSEA: Aral Sea and Defense Issues. ICE Case Studies. No. 69.
• Dinar, A. et al. (2007). Case Study 4. The Aral Sea Basin. In: Bridges Over Water. World Scientific Series on Environmental and Energy Economics and Policy: Volume 3, 285-305.
• ECIFAS (n.d.). Aral Sea Basin Program-4 (ASBP-4). Executive Committee of the International Fund for saving the Aral Sea.
• GRID-Arendal (2009). The disappearance of the Aral Sea. Vital Water Graphics 2.
• IPCC (2021). Regional fact sheet - Asia. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.
• Mirimanova, N. et al. (2018). Central Asia. Climate-related security risk assessment. Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks.
• Pohl, B. et al. (2017). Rethinking Water in Central Asia – The costs of inaction and benefits of water cooperation. Bern: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.
• Roll, G. et al. (2005). Aral Sea. Experiences and Lessons Learned Brief. Lake Basin Management Initiative.
• UNEP (2014). The future of the Aral Sea lies in transboundary co-operation. Weather and Climate: Engaging Youth, WMO Bulletin 63(1).
• UNRCCA (2019). SRSG Natalia Gherman participates in the International Conference on the Aral Sea in Nukus, Uzbekistan. UNRCCA Press Release.
• UNRCCA (2021). UNRCCA organizes an online capacity building seminar and meeting of national experts on water and energy cooperation. UNRCCA Press Release.
• Wolf, A.T. & Newton, J.T. (2014). Case Study of Transboundary Dispute Resolution: Aral Sea.

Physical Resources: Water, Pollution, and Minerals

Case study: the aral sea – going, going, gone.

The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia (see Figure Map of Aral Sea Area ). This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters in general. Summer temperatures can reach 60° C (140° F)! The water supply to the Aral Sea is mainly from two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which carry snowmelt from mountainous areas. In the early 1960s the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or “white gold” to become a major export. They were successful and today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately this action essentially eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

Map of Aral Sea Area Map shows lake size in 1960 and political boundaries of 2011. Countries in yellow are at least partially in Aral Sea drainage basin. Source: Wikimedia Commons

In 1960 Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to evaporation and lack of recharge by rivers (see Figure Shrinking Aral Sea Blue ). Before 1965 the Aral Sea received 20–60 km 3 of fresh water per year from rivers and by the early 1980s it received none. By 2007 the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is 3 times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large fishing boats lie in the dried up lakebed of dust and salt (see Figure An Abandoned Ship ). A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many of the irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns causing a variety of respiratory illnesses including tuberculosis.

Shrinking Aral Sea Blue area gives size of Aral Sea in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2009 Source: NordNordWest at Wikimedia Commons

An Abandoned Ship This abandoned ship lies in a dried up lake bed that was the Aral Sea near Aral, Kazakhstan Source: Staecker at Wikimedia Commons

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003 some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters and it is caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake that has nearly disappeared for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human diversions of water include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake, both in California.

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Chapter 7: Water Availability and Use

7.5 Case Study: The Aral Sea – Going, Going, Gone

The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia. This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters in general. Summer temperatures can reach 60 ο C (140 ο F)! The water supply to the Aral Sea is mainly from two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which carry snow melt from mountainous areas. In the early 1960s, the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or white gold to become a major export. They were successful, and, today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately, this action essentially eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

In 1960, Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to evaporation and lack of recharge by rivers. Before 1965, the Aral Sea received 2060 km 3  of fresh water per year from rivers and by the early 1980s it received none. By 2007, the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is 3 times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large fishing boats lie in the dried up lakebed of dust and salt. A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many of the irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns causing a variety of respiratory illnesses including tuberculosis.

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003, some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters and it is caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake that has nearly disappeared for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human diversions of water include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake, both in California.

Attribution

Essentials of Environmental Science  by Kamala Doršner is licensed under CC BY 4.0 . Modified from the original.

Environmental Issues Copyright © 2019 by Andrew Frank is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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Vanishing Waters: The Stark Transformation From Aral Sea to Aralkum Desert

By NASA Earth Observatory June 8, 2024

Astronaut photo of the Aral Sea captured on October 17, 2023, from the International Space Station.

A former island and a desert are among the newcomers to the dry landscape following the Aral Sea’s rapid decline.

The Aral Sea, a lake located along the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan border, has significantly diminished in size due to river diversions, creating the new Aralkum Desert. This environmental crisis has led to frequent dust storms and ecological degradation, prompting restoration initiatives like the planting of vegetation to stabilize the environment.

Overview of the Aral Sea’s Condition

This photograph of the Aral Sea was taken by an astronaut aboard the International Space Station (ISS) while in orbit over Kazakhstan. This “sea” is actually an endorheic lake, located along the Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan border and fed by the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. For the past 60 years, the lake has experienced a rapid decline in surface area due to the diversion of its two inflowing rivers to irrigate crops. At its greatest extent, the Aral Sea would have spanned almost the entirety of this photo.

Impact of River Diversion on the Aral Sea

The Aral Sea was previously the world’s fourth-largest lake by surface area. But since the 1960s, it has decreased to approximately 10 percent of its original area . Desertification is visible toward the southeast, where the dried lakebed has transformed into the Aralkum Desert . This region is one of the newest deserts in the world and spans 62,000 square kilometers (24,000 square miles). Sand dunes, built by winds blowing across the drylandscape, are visible in the bottom-center of the image. In addition to dunes, the rapid aridification of the Aral Sea has triggered sand and dust storms that impact local air quality.

Ecological Efforts and Local Significance

In the local Turkic language, “aral” translates to “ island, ” an allusion to the Aral Sea’s past as an expansive lake with over 1,100 islands. The Barsa-Kelmes Nature Reserve is situated on one of these former islands, between the remains of the North Aral Sea and South Aral Sea. The reserve provides habitat for hundreds of plant and animal species . As part of a U.S. Agency for International Development project to restore the local ecosystem and slow aridification, black saxaul shrubs ( Haloxylon aphyllum ) are being planted to help reestablish populations of native plant and animal species . They also mitigate the effects of dust storms by helping hold the soil in place.

Astronaut photograph ISS070-E-4509 was acquired on October 17, 2023, with a Nikon D5 digital camera using a focal length of 58 millimeters. It is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 70 crew. The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA /JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Caption by Cadan Cummings, Jacobs, JETS II Contract at NASA-JSC.

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Result of one of the great misanalyses of a rapid industrial rush. The cotton industry has been in great need. There had been no alternative. The diversion for cultivation removed the supply to the sea. The sea went dry together with many villages and professions. Yet one need not be depressed about the appearing loss. It has not gone away. There are easier home / village technological solutions. Easy to do and gradually fill the sea. But one must wait till the change of the Zeitgeist. Once Zeitgeist changes and Home 7 Village methods are accepted, it will not take a decade foor the re-incarnation of the Aral Sea. It is important for far away countries with sea drowning.

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• Introduction
• Geography/Facts about Sea
• Regional Economy
• Diversion Projects Undertaken by Soviets
• Agricultural Diversion
• Environmental/Economic
• Degeneration of the delta ecosystems
• Total collapse of the fishing industry (originally 44,000 t/a)
• Decrease of productivity of agricultural fields
• Increase of serious diseases( e.g. cholera, typhus, gastritis, blood cancer)
• Increase of respiratory system diseases (asthma, bronchitis)
• Birth defects and high infant mortality
• Mesoclimatic changes (increase of continentality)
• Increase of salt and dust storms
• Shortening of the vegetation period
• Recovery Efforts
• Brief Overview of Projects

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12.3: Case Study - The Aral Sea - Going, Going, Gone

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• Tara Jo Holmberg
• Northwestern Connecticut Community College

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The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia. This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters in general. Summer temperatures can reach 60 ο C (140 ο F)! The water supply to the Aral Sea is mainly from two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which carry snow melt from mountainous areas.

In the early 1960s, the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or white gold to become a major export. They were successful, and, today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately, this action essentially eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

In 1960, Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to evaporation and lack of recharge by rivers. Before 1965, the Aral Sea received 2060 km 3 of fresh water per year from rivers and by the early 1980s it received none. By 2007, the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is 3 times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large shing boats lie in the dried up lakebed of dust and salt. A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many of the irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns causing a variety of respiratory illnesses including tuberculosis.

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003, some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters and it is caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake that has nearly disappeared for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human diversions of water include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake, both in California.

Contributors and Attributions

• Essentials of Environmental Science by Kamala Doršner is licensed under CC BY 4.0. Modified from the original by Matthew R. Fisher.

Dunes and Desert Replace the Aral Sea

Astronaut photograph ISS070-E-4509 was acquired on October 17, 2023, with a Nikon D5 digital camera using a focal length of 58 millimeters. It is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 70 crew . The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth . Caption by Cadan Cummings, Jacobs, JETS II Contract at NASA-JSC.

Geography Case Study - The Aral Sea

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9.5: Case Study - The Aral Sea - Going, Going, Gone

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The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia. This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters in general. Summer temperatures can reach 60 ο C (140 ο F)! The water supply to the Aral Sea is mainly from two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which carry snow melt from mountainous areas.

In the early 1960s, the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or white gold to become a major export. They were successful, and, today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately, this action essentially eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

In 1960, Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to evaporation and lack of recharge by rivers. Before 1965, the Aral Sea received 2060 km 3 of fresh water per year from rivers and by the early 1980s it received none. By 2007, the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is 3 times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large shing boats lie in the dried up lakebed of dust and salt. A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many of the irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns causing a variety of respiratory illnesses including tuberculosis.

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003, some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters and it is caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake that has nearly disappeared for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human diversions of water include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake, both in California.

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• Essentials of Environmental Science by Kamala Doršner is licensed under CC BY 4.0. Modified from the original by Matthew R. Fisher.

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The Aral Sea has made Central Asia significantly dustier, according to study

by Tilo Arnhold, Leibniz-Institut für Troposphärenforschung e. V.

The drying up of the Aral Sea has made Central Asia 7% dustier in the last 30 years. Between 1984 and 2015, dust emissions from the growing desert almost doubled from 14 to 27 million tons. This is the result of a study by the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) and the Free University of Berlin.

The amounts of dust have probably been underestimated so far because two-thirds of it is swirled up under cloudy skies and therefore may go unnoticed by traditional satellite observations, report the researchers at the Second Central Asian DUst Conference ( CADUC-2 ), which is taking place from 15–22 April 2024 in Nukus, Uzbekistan, near the former Aral Sea.

The dust not only endangers the inhabitants in the region, but also affects the air quality in the capitals of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In addition, it may accelerate the melting of glaciers and thus exacerbate the water crisis in the region.

Until the early 1960s, the Aral Sea in Central Asia was the fourth largest lake in the world with an area of 68,000 square kilometers—fed by the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers from the Pamir and Tian Shan mountain ranges. Due to the excessive use of the rivers for agricultural irrigation, less and less water reached the lake. As a result, huge areas dried up, the lake shrank to a fraction of its size and most of it became a desert.

The Aralkum Desert is now considered one of the most significant man-made sources of dust on earth. At 60,000 square kilometers, this new desert is much smaller than the neighboring natural deserts of Karakum (350,000 square kilometers) to the south in Turkmenistan and Kyzylkum (300,000 square kilometers) to the southeast in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. But the dust from the Aralkum Desert is considered much more dangerous because it contains residues of fertilizers and pesticides from former agriculture.

The Aral Sea is not the only lake in Central Asia and the Middle East that has shrunk dramatically in recent decades. Lake Urmia in north-western Iran and Lake Hamoun in the Iran-Afghanistan border region have also become local heavy sources of dust. This desertification therefore has a major impact on the climate and living conditions of the people in the region. The interest of international science in better understanding these processes is correspondingly great, in order to be able to better assess future trends up to the global climate.

To estimate the effects of dust from the Aralkum Desert, the TROPOS and FU Berlin team used the COSMO-MUSCAT atmospheric dust model, which simulates emissions, atmospheric concentrations and radiation effects of dust particles. One challenge was the limited data on the soil and surface properties in the Aralkum Desert. The other challenge was the different wind directions in different years.

Winds from westerly directions can dominate the dust storm activity, but north, east and south also play a role depending on the season. With the warming of the Arctic, westerly wind currents could become even more frequent in winter, with consequences for the people east of the desert: on an annual average, up to half of the dust currently may already go eastwards.

Especially the agricultural areas along the Syr Darya are negatively affected by the dust, but even in the big cities of Central Asia like Ashgabat (capital of Turkmenistan) and Dushanbe (capital of Tajikistan) the dust is still felt, even if they are more than 800 kilometers away.

Based on the modeling study for Central Asian dust presented in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres in 2022, the team led by Jamie Banks from FU Berlin and TROPOS then investigated the impact of Aralkum dust on radiative effects over Central Asia in order to better understand the influence of increasing dust storms on the climate.

COSMO-MUSCAT model simulations were used to quantify the direct radiative effects (DREs) of Aralkum dust and the associated impacts on the atmosphere. The second study is currently in the discussion and review process as a preprint in the open access journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics .

On the ground, dust has a cooling effect during the day because it dims the sunlight, and a warming effect at night because it reflects the long-wave heat radiation. The net radiative effect of dust can therefore be cooling or warming, depending on the height of the dust in the atmosphere, the time of day, the season, the surface albedo and the exact mineralogical and optical properties of the dust.

"Looking at the changes between the past and the present, the near doubling of dust emissions over the Aral Sea/Aralkum region has led to an increase in both radiative cooling and radiative heating at the surface and in the atmosphere," reports Dr. Jamie Banks.

"However, these 'new' dust events do not occur throughout the year, but in episodes in June, September, November, December and March. On an annual average, the Aralkum dust probably cools both at the surface and in the atmosphere, but only minimally at -0.05 ±0.51 watts per square meter."

In addition to the radiation effects, the researchers have also found indications that the dust could change the large-scale weather patterns: Aralkum dust increases the air pressure at ground level in the Aral region by up to +0.76 Pascal on the monthly time scale, which means a strengthening of the Siberian high in winter and a weakening of the Central Asian heat low in summer.

As many questions about the climate effects of the dust are still unanswered, the researchers recommend investigating the optical properties of this dust in more detail. Their knowledge improves the satellite-based and thus large-scale remote sensing of mineral dust. The Leibniz junior research group OLALA (Optical Lab for Lidar Applications), which was founded at TROPOS in Leipzig in 2023, will be addressing this challenge in the coming years.

The studies underline that increasing desertification due to the desiccation of lakes is not only a local problem, but affects large regions. Deserts are spreading particularly rapidly in the Middle East and Central Asia. The retreat of glaciers in the high mountains also contributes to this. The new data on the Aral Sea dust source help to better assess the influence of desert dust on the climate.

Journal information: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres , Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Provided by Leibniz-Institut für Troposphärenforschung e. V.

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The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value

If 2023 was the year the world discovered generative AI (gen AI) , 2024 is the year organizations truly began using—and deriving business value from—this new technology. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey  on AI, 65 percent of respondents report that their organizations are regularly using gen AI, nearly double the percentage from our previous survey just ten months ago. Respondents’ expectations for gen AI’s impact remain as high as they were last year , with three-quarters predicting that gen AI will lead to significant or disruptive change in their industries in the years ahead.

About the authors

This article is a collaborative effort by Alex Singla , Alexander Sukharevsky , Lareina Yee , and Michael Chui , with Bryce Hall , representing views from QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and McKinsey Digital.

Organizations are already seeing material benefits from gen AI use, reporting both cost decreases and revenue jumps in the business units deploying the technology. The survey also provides insights into the kinds of risks presented by gen AI—most notably, inaccuracy—as well as the emerging practices of top performers to mitigate those challenges and capture value.

AI adoption surges

Interest in generative AI has also brightened the spotlight on a broader set of AI capabilities. For the past six years, AI adoption by respondents’ organizations has hovered at about 50 percent. This year, the survey finds that adoption has jumped to 72 percent (Exhibit 1). And the interest is truly global in scope. Our 2023 survey found that AI adoption did not reach 66 percent in any region; however, this year more than two-thirds of respondents in nearly every region say their organizations are using AI. 1 Organizations based in Central and South America are the exception, with 58 percent of respondents working for organizations based in Central and South America reporting AI adoption. Looking by industry, the biggest increase in adoption can be found in professional services. 2 Includes respondents working for organizations focused on human resources, legal services, management consulting, market research, R&D, tax preparation, and training.

Also, responses suggest that companies are now using AI in more parts of the business. Half of respondents say their organizations have adopted AI in two or more business functions, up from less than a third of respondents in 2023 (Exhibit 2).

Gen AI adoption is most common in the functions where it can create the most value

Most respondents now report that their organizations—and they as individuals—are using gen AI. Sixty-five percent of respondents say their organizations are regularly using gen AI in at least one business function, up from one-third last year. The average organization using gen AI is doing so in two functions, most often in marketing and sales and in product and service development—two functions in which previous research  determined that gen AI adoption could generate the most value 3 “ The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier ,” McKinsey, June 14, 2023. —as well as in IT (Exhibit 3). The biggest increase from 2023 is found in marketing and sales, where reported adoption has more than doubled. Yet across functions, only two use cases, both within marketing and sales, are reported by 15 percent or more of respondents.

Gen AI also is weaving its way into respondents’ personal lives. Compared with 2023, respondents are much more likely to be using gen AI at work and even more likely to be using gen AI both at work and in their personal lives (Exhibit 4). The survey finds upticks in gen AI use across all regions, with the largest increases in Asia–Pacific and Greater China. Respondents at the highest seniority levels, meanwhile, show larger jumps in the use of gen Al tools for work and outside of work compared with their midlevel-management peers. Looking at specific industries, respondents working in energy and materials and in professional services report the largest increase in gen AI use.

Investments in gen AI and analytical AI are beginning to create value

The latest survey also shows how different industries are budgeting for gen AI. Responses suggest that, in many industries, organizations are about equally as likely to be investing more than 5 percent of their digital budgets in gen AI as they are in nongenerative, analytical-AI solutions (Exhibit 5). Yet in most industries, larger shares of respondents report that their organizations spend more than 20 percent on analytical AI than on gen AI. Looking ahead, most respondents—67 percent—expect their organizations to invest more in AI over the next three years.

Where are those investments paying off? For the first time, our latest survey explored the value created by gen AI use by business function. The function in which the largest share of respondents report seeing cost decreases is human resources. Respondents most commonly report meaningful revenue increases (of more than 5 percent) in supply chain and inventory management (Exhibit 6). For analytical AI, respondents most often report seeing cost benefits in service operations—in line with what we found last year —as well as meaningful revenue increases from AI use in marketing and sales.

Inaccuracy: The most recognized and experienced risk of gen AI use

As businesses begin to see the benefits of gen AI, they’re also recognizing the diverse risks associated with the technology. These can range from data management risks such as data privacy, bias, or intellectual property (IP) infringement to model management risks, which tend to focus on inaccurate output or lack of explainability. A third big risk category is security and incorrect use.

Respondents to the latest survey are more likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider inaccuracy and IP infringement to be relevant to their use of gen AI, and about half continue to view cybersecurity as a risk (Exhibit 7).

Conversely, respondents are less likely than they were last year to say their organizations consider workforce and labor displacement to be relevant risks and are not increasing efforts to mitigate them.

In fact, inaccuracy— which can affect use cases across the gen AI value chain , ranging from customer journeys and summarization to coding and creative content—is the only risk that respondents are significantly more likely than last year to say their organizations are actively working to mitigate.

Some organizations have already experienced negative consequences from the use of gen AI, with 44 percent of respondents saying their organizations have experienced at least one consequence (Exhibit 8). Respondents most often report inaccuracy as a risk that has affected their organizations, followed by cybersecurity and explainability.

Our previous research has found that there are several elements of governance that can help in scaling gen AI use responsibly, yet few respondents report having these risk-related practices in place. 4 “ Implementing generative AI with speed and safety ,” McKinsey Quarterly , March 13, 2024. For example, just 18 percent say their organizations have an enterprise-wide council or board with the authority to make decisions involving responsible AI governance, and only one-third say gen AI risk awareness and risk mitigation controls are required skill sets for technical talent.

Bringing gen AI capabilities to bear

The latest survey also sought to understand how, and how quickly, organizations are deploying these new gen AI tools. We have found three archetypes for implementing gen AI solutions : takers use off-the-shelf, publicly available solutions; shapers customize those tools with proprietary data and systems; and makers develop their own foundation models from scratch. 5 “ Technology’s generational moment with generative AI: A CIO and CTO guide ,” McKinsey, July 11, 2023. Across most industries, the survey results suggest that organizations are finding off-the-shelf offerings applicable to their business needs—though many are pursuing opportunities to customize models or even develop their own (Exhibit 9). About half of reported gen AI uses within respondents’ business functions are utilizing off-the-shelf, publicly available models or tools, with little or no customization. Respondents in energy and materials, technology, and media and telecommunications are more likely to report significant customization or tuning of publicly available models or developing their own proprietary models to address specific business needs.

Respondents most often report that their organizations required one to four months from the start of a project to put gen AI into production, though the time it takes varies by business function (Exhibit 10). It also depends upon the approach for acquiring those capabilities. Not surprisingly, reported uses of highly customized or proprietary models are 1.5 times more likely than off-the-shelf, publicly available models to take five months or more to implement.

Gen AI high performers are excelling despite facing challenges

Gen AI is a new technology, and organizations are still early in the journey of pursuing its opportunities and scaling it across functions. So it’s little surprise that only a small subset of respondents (46 out of 876) report that a meaningful share of their organizations’ EBIT can be attributed to their deployment of gen AI. Still, these gen AI leaders are worth examining closely. These, after all, are the early movers, who already attribute more than 10 percent of their organizations’ EBIT to their use of gen AI. Forty-two percent of these high performers say more than 20 percent of their EBIT is attributable to their use of nongenerative, analytical AI, and they span industries and regions—though most are at organizations with less than $1 billion in annual revenue. The AI-related practices at these organizations can offer guidance to those looking to create value from gen AI adoption at their own organizations.

To start, gen AI high performers are using gen AI in more business functions—an average of three functions, while others average two. They, like other organizations, are most likely to use gen AI in marketing and sales and product or service development, but they’re much more likely than others to use gen AI solutions in risk, legal, and compliance; in strategy and corporate finance; and in supply chain and inventory management. They’re more than three times as likely as others to be using gen AI in activities ranging from processing of accounting documents and risk assessment to R&D testing and pricing and promotions. While, overall, about half of reported gen AI applications within business functions are utilizing publicly available models or tools, gen AI high performers are less likely to use those off-the-shelf options than to either implement significantly customized versions of those tools or to develop their own proprietary foundation models.

What else are these high performers doing differently? For one thing, they are paying more attention to gen-AI-related risks. Perhaps because they are further along on their journeys, they are more likely than others to say their organizations have experienced every negative consequence from gen AI we asked about, from cybersecurity and personal privacy to explainability and IP infringement. Given that, they are more likely than others to report that their organizations consider those risks, as well as regulatory compliance, environmental impacts, and political stability, to be relevant to their gen AI use, and they say they take steps to mitigate more risks than others do.

Gen AI high performers are also much more likely to say their organizations follow a set of risk-related best practices (Exhibit 11). For example, they are nearly twice as likely as others to involve the legal function and embed risk reviews early on in the development of gen AI solutions—that is, to “ shift left .” They’re also much more likely than others to employ a wide range of other best practices, from strategy-related practices to those related to scaling.

In addition to experiencing the risks of gen AI adoption, high performers have encountered other challenges that can serve as warnings to others (Exhibit 12). Seventy percent say they have experienced difficulties with data, including defining processes for data governance, developing the ability to quickly integrate data into AI models, and an insufficient amount of training data, highlighting the essential role that data play in capturing value. High performers are also more likely than others to report experiencing challenges with their operating models, such as implementing agile ways of working and effective sprint performance management.

About the research

The online survey was in the field from February 22 to March 5, 2024, and garnered responses from 1,363 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. Of those respondents, 981 said their organizations had adopted AI in at least one business function, and 878 said their organizations were regularly using gen AI in at least one function. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.

Alex Singla and Alexander Sukharevsky  are global coleaders of QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and senior partners in McKinsey’s Chicago and London offices, respectively; Lareina Yee  is a senior partner in the Bay Area office, where Michael Chui , a McKinsey Global Institute partner, is a partner; and Bryce Hall  is an associate partner in the Washington, DC, office.

They wish to thank Kaitlin Noe, Larry Kanter, Mallika Jhamb, and Shinjini Srivastava for their contributions to this work.

This article was edited by Heather Hanselman, a senior editor in McKinsey’s Atlanta office.

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7.5 Case Study: The Aral Sea – Going, Going, Gone

The Aral Sea is a lake located east of the Caspian Sea between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in central Asia. This area is part of the Turkestan desert, which is the fourth largest desert in the world; it is produced from a rain shadow effect by Afghanistan’s high mountains to the south. Due to the arid and seasonally hot climate there is extensive evaporation and limited surface waters in general. Summer temperatures can reach 60 ο C (140 ο F)! The water supply to the Aral Sea is mainly from two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which carry snow melt from mountainous areas. In the early 1960s, the then-Soviet Union diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers for irrigation of one of the driest parts of Asia to produce rice, melons, cereals, and especially cotton. The Soviets wanted cotton or white gold to become a major export. They were successful, and, today Uzbekistan is one of the world’s largest exporters of cotton. Unfortunately, this action essentially eliminated any river inflow to the Aral Sea and caused it to disappear almost completely.

In 1960, Aral Sea was the fourth largest inland water body; only the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, and Lake Victoria were larger. Since then, it has progressively shrunk due to evaporation and lack of recharge by rivers. Before 1965, the Aral Sea received 2060 km 3  of fresh water per year from rivers and by the early 1980s it received none. By 2007, the Aral Sea shrank to about 10% of its original size and its salinity increased from about 1% dissolved salt to about 10% dissolved salt, which is 3 times more saline than seawater. These changes caused an enormous environmental impact. A once thriving fishing industry is dead as are the 24 species of fish that used to live there; the fish could not adapt to the more saline waters. The current shoreline is tens of kilometers from former fishing towns and commercial ports. Large shing boats lie in the dried up lakebed of dust and salt. A frustrating part of the river diversion project is that many of the irrigation canals were poorly built, allowing abundant water to leak or evaporate. An increasing number of dust storms blow salt, pesticides, and herbicides into nearby towns causing a variety of respiratory illnesses including tuberculosis.

The wetlands of the two river deltas and their associated ecosystems have disappeared. The regional climate is drier and has greater temperature extremes due to the absence of moisture and moderating influence from the lake. In 2003, some lake restoration work began on the northern part of the Aral Sea and it provided some relief by raising water levels and reducing salinity somewhat. The southern part of the Aral Sea has seen no relief and remains nearly completely dry. The destruction of the Aral Sea is one of the planet’s biggest environmental disasters and it is caused entirely by humans. Lake Chad in Africa is another example of a massive lake that has nearly disappeared for the same reasons as the Aral Sea. Aral Sea and Lake Chad are the most extreme examples of large lakes destroyed by unsustainable diversions of river water. Other lakes that have shrunk significantly due to human diversions of water include the Dead Sea in the Middle East, Lake Manchar in Pakistan, and Owens Lake and Mono Lake, both in California.

Attribution

Essentials of Environmental Science  by Kamala Doršner is licensed under CC BY 4.0 . Modified from the original by Matthew R. Fisher.

Terrestrial Environment Copyright © 2021 by Alexandra Geddes is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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A novel stacking ensemble learning approach for predicting pm2.5 levels in dense urban environments using meteorological variables: a case study in macau, share and cite.

Tian, H.; Kong, H.; Wong, C. A Novel Stacking Ensemble Learning Approach for Predicting PM2.5 Levels in Dense Urban Environments Using Meteorological Variables: A Case Study in Macau. Appl. Sci. 2024 , 14 , 5062. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14125062

Tian H, Kong H, Wong C. A Novel Stacking Ensemble Learning Approach for Predicting PM2.5 Levels in Dense Urban Environments Using Meteorological Variables: A Case Study in Macau. Applied Sciences . 2024; 14(12):5062. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14125062

Tian, Haoting, Hoiio Kong, and Chanseng Wong. 2024. "A Novel Stacking Ensemble Learning Approach for Predicting PM2.5 Levels in Dense Urban Environments Using Meteorological Variables: A Case Study in Macau" Applied Sciences 14, no. 12: 5062. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14125062

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