how to solve population growth problems

6 Possible Overpopulation Solutions: A Deep Dive

The world’s current population exceeds 8 billion individuals. The figure is rapidly increasing, with the UK-based charity Population Matters pointing out that we will continue to add a billion every 12-15 years .

Several factors are fueling population growth. More people are living at an age where they can have children. Additionally, humans are living longer lives than before .

Cities are also multiplying as more people move into urban areas . Alongside this shift,  there’s a noticeable acceleration in migration , with people relocating from one region or country to another for various reasons.

The Earth can no longer cope with the increasing number of people on the planet. Natural resources are already depleted to the point that  only a select few can maintain a decent standard of living . Many environmental challenges compound this situation, with climate change and pollution putting more stress on the planet’s systems . They disrupt weather patterns, harm ecosystems, and damage public health. 

These issues show that the planet is facing a critical point. Solutions are necessary to stabilize national populations and ensure everyone can live well without compromising the environment.

Source:  https://populationmatters.org/lp-the-facts

In this article, we will deeply dive into overpopulation and explore the most viable solutions for this issue. 

From increasing access to family planning services and education to promoting sustainable lifestyles and reducing waste, we’ll examine various strategies for addressing the problem. 

We’ll also explore some ethical, political, and economic challenges that must be overcome to implement practical solutions for the growing world population. 

Whether you’re an environmentalist concerned about the impact of the human population on the planet or simply curious about this complex issue, this article will provide valuable insights and food for thought.

Key Takeaways

• The global population is on the rise, and its unchecked growth can lead to resource depletion, environmental degradation, and societal challenges.
• Empowering women and girls through education and economic opportunities is one of the most effective ways to address overpopulation. When women have access to reproductive health services and can make informed decisions about family planning, it positively impacts family size.
• Ensuring universal access to modern contraception and family planning services is crucial. It allows individuals to exercise their reproductive rights and make choices that align with their preferences.
• Implementing and supporting family planning programs in developing countries can significantly impact population control. These programs provide the education and tools necessary for individuals to make informed decisions about their family size.
• Overpopulation poses challenges such as resource depletion, pollution, strain on healthcare and education systems, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and habitat destruction. Addressing these issues is essential for a sustainable future.
• Promoting gender equality is intrinsically linked to addressing overpopulation. When women and girls have equal access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, it contributes to smaller family sizes and sustainable development.
• Governments can play a pivotal role in addressing overpopulation by discouraging urban sprawl development, limiting financial support for larger families, and implementing incentives and regulations that promote sustainable urban planning.
• Overpopulation is a global issue that requires collective action. Together, we can create a better future by raising awareness, implementing effective solutions, and fostering a shared commitment to sustainable population growth.
• Addressing overpopulation goes hand in hand with environmental conservation. By reducing our individual carbon footprints and promoting responsible consumption, we can mitigate the negative impacts of a growing population on our planet.
• Immigration policies also play a role in population management. Governments can optimize immigration policies to help balance population growth, but such policies should be implemented with consideration to various factors and sensitivity to humanitarian concerns.
• Advancements in technology and innovation can enhance our ability to sustain a growing population. From AI-driven technologies and automation systems to vertical farming, technology can contribute to resource conservation and sustainable living .

Overpopulation: An Overview

Before diving into possible solutions for overpopulation, let’s define what overpopulation means and the factors affecting it. Understanding this concept will help set the stage for discussing balancing human needs with environmental sustainability.

Overpopulation is defined as a condition where the number of people living in a particular area exceeds the carrying capacity of that area. It’s not just about space, however. It’s also about the availability of resources like food, water, and energy and the impact on ecosystems. In other words, the demand for resources exceeds the supply.

The world’s population has proliferated over the past century. According to the United Nations , by the year 2050, the global population could reach 9.7 billion people and peak at around 10.4 billion by the mid-2080s .

Most of this growth is expected to occur in Africa, where the population has grown at an annual rate of 2.55% from 2010 to 2015 . To date, Africa has the highest pace of population growth among all continents. The UN predicts that Asia will also significantly impact future population growth . By 2050, the continent is expected to add roughly one billion people to its already sizable population.

In Europe, the situation contrasts sharply. Here, fertility rates in every country fall below the population replacement level of about two children per woman . These low fertility rates have been consistent across most European nations for many years.

Factors Influencing Overpopulation

A variety of interconnected factors drive overpopulation. Recognizing these causes is crucial for crafting practical solutions to this complex global issue. Some of these key contributors are:

• Increased Life Expectancy : Medical advancements, such as vaccines, antibiotics, and improved healthcare infrastructure, have significantly reduced mortality rates, allowing people to live longer and healthier lives. This demographic shift has contributed to population growth by increasing the number of individuals reaching reproductive age and overall population size . Improved access to healthcare services and better sanitation practices have also played a crucial role in extending life expectancy , particularly in developing countries where infectious diseases are prevalent.
• High Birth Rates : In many regions, birth rates remain high due to cultural values, religious beliefs, and socioeconomic factors . Cultural norms often prioritize large families as a symbol of status, lineage, or societal expectations. Additionally, limited access to comprehensive reproductive health education and gaps in family planning services can contribute to unintended pregnancies and higher birth rates . 
• Economic Factors : Economic considerations influence family size decisions and contribute to population growth. In some societies, particularly in agricultural economies,  larger families are seen as an asset , as children can contribute to household income through labor or support aging parents in their later years. Moreover, lacking social safety nets and retirement systems may incentivize having more children as insurance against economic uncertainty.
• Migration : Migration, whether driven by economic, political, or environmental factors, plays a significant role in shaping population dynamics. Rural-to-urban and international migration often increase population densities in urban centers and destination countries . These population movements can strain urban infrastructure, exacerbate resource competition, and contribute to social tensions.
• Education Level: Education shapes reproductive behaviors and family size decisions. Higher levels of education, particularly for women, are associated with lower fertility rates and delayed childbearing . Education empowers individuals to make informed decisions about their reproductive health and rights, including access to contraception and family planning services.

The Challenges of Overpopulation

The challenges of overpopulation are multifaceted and have far-reaching implications for human societies and the environment. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnected issues at play:

• Resource Depletion : With the global population expanding, the demand for essential resources such as water, food, and energy is escalating rapidly . Such heightened demand risks depletion and scarcity, threatening the availability of vital resources for current and future generations . Moreover, unsustainable resource extraction and consumption practices exacerbate environmental degradation and contribute to ecological imbalances, jeopardizing the long-term sustainability of ecosystems and human well-being.
• Environmental Degradation : Overpopulation exerts significant pressure on the environment , leading to widespread environmental degradation and habitat destruction. Overusing land for agriculture , urbanization, and infrastructure development contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss, undermining ecosystem resilience and ecological functions. Additionally, increased waste production and pollution further degrade natural habitats and compromise air, water, and soil quality, posing risks to human health and ecosystem integrity.
• Economic Strain : The rapid growth of populations can strain economies, particularly in regions with limited resources and infrastructure. Inadequate investment in essential services such as healthcare, education, and sanitation can hinder economic development and exacerbate poverty and inequality . Moreover, the mismatch between population growth and economic opportunities can lead to unemployment, underemployment, and income disparities, perpetuating economic instability and social unrest.
• Social Challenges : Overpopulation contributes to crowded living conditions, worsening social problems such as housing shortages, urban congestion, and social exclusion. Limited access to affordable housing, healthcare, and education can exacerbate social inequalities and undermine social cohesion . Moreover, overcrowded communities may experience higher levels of crime, violence, and social tension, posing challenges to governance and community resilience.
• Health Concerns : Overpopulated areas often face significant health challenges due to inadequate healthcare infrastructure, limited access to essential services, and the rapid spread of infectious diseases. Insufficient healthcare resources and personnel strain healthcare systems, leading to reduced quality of care and increased mortality rates . Moreover, densely populated areas are  more susceptible to disease outbreaks and public health emergencies , highlighting the importance of robust disease surveillance and response mechanisms to mitigate health risks.
• Climate Change : Overpopulation amplifies the drivers of climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and land-use change. The growing demand for energy, especially from fossil fuels, drives increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating global warming and its associated impacts, including melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and shifts in precipitation patterns. The consequences of climate change are widespread, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and human health, with disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations, including low-income communities and developing countries.

• Food Security : Feeding a growing global population presents significant challenges to food security and agricultural sustainability. As the UN Secretary-General António Guterres said , “ We are on the way to a raging food catastrophe. ” Expanding agricultural land to meet rising demand for food can lead to habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, and soil degradation, compromising the resilience of agroecosystems. Moreover, climate change exacerbates food insecurity by altering precipitation patterns, increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, and disrupting agricultural productivity. 
• Political Issues : High population growth rates can strain governance systems and exacerbate political tensions , leading to conflicts over resources, inadequate service provision, and migration pressures. Inadequate urban planning and infrastructure development may fuel social unrest and political instability, undermining peace, security, and sustainable development efforts. 

You can read more about how population affects the environment here and explore the pros and cons of high population density here .

Solutions to Overpopulation

Given the challenges of overpopulation, it’s clear that we need to take action to address this issue. The good news is that there are a range of strategies that can help us do just that. 

Some of the most effective solutions include:

1. Family Planning Services and Education

Access to family planning services and education is crucial in addressing the challenges of overpopulation and promoting sustainable population growth . We can mitigate the negative impacts of rapid population growth by empowering individuals with the knowledge and resources to make informed decisions about their reproductive health.

Family planning services encompass a range of interventions aimed at assisting individuals and couples in controlling their fertility and achieving their desired number of children . These services often include counseling, contraceptive methods provision, and reproductive health education.

Several types of family planning methods are available, each offering different levels of effectiveness and suitability for individuals’ needs:

• Hormonal Contraceptives : Hormonal contraceptives, such as birth control pills, patches, and injectables, contain synthetic hormones that prevent ovulation and inhibit fertilization. These methods are low cost and highly effective when used correctly and consistently, offering individuals reliable contraception options to prevent unintended pregnancies.
• Barrier Methods : Barrier methods, such as condoms, diaphragms, and cervical caps, create a physical barrier that prevents sperm from reaching the egg. These methods are accessible, affordable, and do not have long-term effects on fertility, making them suitable for individuals who prefer non-hormonal contraception or have contraindications to hormonal methods.
• Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) : LARCs, such as intrauterine devices (IUDs) and implants , are highly effective contraceptive methods that provide long-term protection against pregnancy. IUDs are small, T-shaped devices inserted into the uterus, where they release hormones or copper to prevent fertilization and implantation. Implants are small rods inserted under the skin of the arm, releasing hormones that prevent ovulation. LARCs offer convenience, efficacy, and reversible contraception, making them suitable options for individuals seeking reliable, low-maintenance birth control.

In addition to providing access to family planning services, education is also critical . 

Educating individuals about reproductive health, family planning, and the benefits of smaller family sizes can help reduce unintended pregnancies and promote more sustainable population growth. Education can take many forms, including school-based sex education programs, community outreach, and media campaigns.

However, there are still many challenges to ensuring universal access to these services. Some of the key challenges include:

• Lack of access to services : Many people worldwide still lack access to family planning services , particularly in low-income countries. Reasons for that may include lack of health infrastructure, limited funding, or cultural barriers.
• Stigma and misinformation : In some cultures and communities, a stigma may be attached to family planning methods . Hence, many women choose not to use contraception to avoid judgment. Additionally, there may be misinformation about the safety and efficacy of these methods, which can discourage their use.
• Political opposition : Family planning is often contentious in political debates, particularly in conservative or religious circles. Opposition to family planning can lead to limited funding for services, restricted access, and even legal barriers.

Despite these challenges, there is a growing recognition of the importance of family planning as a critical solution to overpopulation. 

Many governments, NGOs, and other organizations are working to increase access to services and education, reduce stigma and misinformation, promote policies that support reproductive health and rights, and change social norms.  

An excellent example of this is the Population Media Center , which, over the years, has spearheaded media programs that empower women’s rights and promote family planning through collaborations with governments, NGOs, and individuals.

Such efforts have led to significant achievements in improving reproductive health outcomes and promoting sustainable population growth. Several vital milestones show the transformative impact of family planning interventions as highlighted in the studies conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs and RAND Corporation :

• Reduction in Maternal Mortality: Family planning programs have contributed to a substantial decline in maternal mortality rates by enabling women to delay and space their pregnancies, reducing the risks associated with high-risk pregnancies and unsafe abortions . In a significant study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , researchers found that contraceptives play a crucial role in saving lives by preventing over 272,000 maternal deaths from childbirth annually. The team also explored the potential impact on maternal health if the current global demand for contraception was fully met. They estimated that addressing the gap could further reduce maternal deaths by an impressive 30 percent.
• Prevention of Unintended Pregnancies : By providing individuals and couples with access to a variety of contraceptive methods, family planning services have helped to prevent unintended pregnancies and reduce the incidence of unsafe abortions . According to RAND Corporation research, family planning interventions have averted millions of unintended pregnancies annually, contributing to improved maternal and child health outcomes.
• Empowerment of Women and Girls : Access to family planning services empowers women and girls to make informed decisions about their reproductive health and exercise control over their bodies and futures. By enabling women to delay motherhood, pursue education, and participate in the workforce, family planning promotes gender equality and economic empowerment. Studies cited by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs demonstrate that increasing access to family planning can lead to higher levels of education, employment, and economic opportunities for women and girls .
• Reduction in Infant and Child Mortality : Family planning interventions have been linked to reductions in infant and child mortality rates by allowing parents to plan and space their pregnancies, ensuring optimal birth spacing and maternal health. 
• Improvement in Maternal Health Services : Family planning programs often integrate maternal health services, including prenatal care, postnatal care, and skilled birth attendance, to ensure comprehensive care for women throughout the reproductive lifecycle. By promoting access to essential maternal health services alongside contraception, family planning contributes to improved maternal health outcomes and reduces the burden of maternal morbidity and mortality .
• Promotion of Sustainable Development : Family planning is a cornerstone of sustainable development efforts, facilitating progress across multiple sectors, including health, education, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability. Family planning supports efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and create more resilient and equitable societies by addressing population growth and demographic challenge s.

2. Sustainable Lifestyle

Promoting more sustainable lifestyles is recognized as another key solution to addressing overpopulation and mitigating its impact on the environment. Making environmentally friendly choices in our daily lives can significantly reduce our ecological footprint and contribute to a more sustainable future.

According to the UN Environment Programme , transitioning to sustainable lifestyles involves adopting behaviors and practices that prioritize environmental conservation and resource efficiency. Some sustainable lifestyle choices individuals can make include:

• Reducing meat consumption : Meat production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation . Research from organizations like the  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) highlights the environmental impact of livestock farming associated with growing populations and incomes and changing food preferences. The organization noted that the livestock sector is one of the biggest contributors to the most critical environmental problems on both local and global scales , in cluding greenhouse gas emissions, high water consumption, and reduction of biodiversity resulting from land use intensification. By reducing our meat consumption or switching to plant-based diets, we can help to reduce our environmental footprint.

• Reducing energy consumption : Conserving energy is essential for reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change. Utilizing energy-efficient appliances, such as ENERGY STAR-rated products, and adopting energy-saving habits, such as turning off lights and electronics when not in use, can help individuals reduce their energy consumption. Reliable sources like the International Energy Agency (IEA) guide energy-efficient practices and technologies.
• Reducing waste : Waste reduction, recycling , and composting are critical for conserving natural resources and minimizing environmental pollution. By reducing single-use plastics, minimizing packaging waste, and practicing responsible consumption habits, individuals can contribute to a circular economy and reduce their ecological footprint.
• Promoting sustainable transportation: Transportation is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) emphasizes the importance of sustainable transportation solutions, such as public transit, biking, and walking. Investing in public transportation infrastructure, expanding bike lanes, and promoting carpooling and ridesharing initiatives can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels and promote cleaner, more sustainable transportation options.
• Conserving water : Water conservation is essential for preserving freshwater resources and ensuring access to clean water for future generations. Organizations like the World Water Council and the UN advocate for sustainable water management practices , such as reducing water waste, implementing water-efficient technologies, and protecting water ecosystems. By adopting water-saving habits, such as fixing leaks, installing water-efficient fixtures, and practicing responsible irrigation, individuals can contribute to water conservation efforts.

While these lifestyle changes may seem small, they significantly lead to reductions in our environmental impact over time.

In addition to reducing our individual carbon footprints, promoting sustainable lifestyles can help shift cultural attitudes and encourage broader societal transformations.

However, it can still be challenging to fully embrace a sustainable lifestyle due to various factors, including:

• Economic barriers : Sustainable lifestyle choices can sometimes be more expensive than less sustainable options, particularly in the short term. This can create economic barriers for those who cannot afford to make more environmentally friendly choices. However, it’s crucial to do as much as one can.
• Cultural barriers : Certain lifestyle choices may be deeply ingrained and difficult to change in some cultures and communities. For example, meat consumption may be culturally significant in some communities, making it difficult to promote plant-based diets. That’s why education is key when it comes to sustainability.
• Lack of infrastructure : In many areas, infrastructure for sustainable transportation options such as public transportation or bike lanes may be lacking or inadequate, making it difficult for people to make more sustainable choices. As such, lobbying for infrastructure improvements can be an important way to promote sustainable lifestyles.

3. Education and Empowerment

Education and empowerment also stand as critical pillars in addressing the multiple challenges of overpopulation. By tackling social, economic, and cultural factors, they offer pathways to sustainable population growth and improved well-being for communities worldwide. 

Here’s an expanded look at how education and empowerment can address the complexities of overpopulation:

Promoting Girls’ Education  

• Reducing Fertility Rates : Educating girls and women has been identified as one of the most effective strategies for reducing fertility rates and achieving sustainable population growth. Research from the Guttmacher Institute highlights the correlation between higher levels of education among women and lower fertility rates.
• Preventing Child Marriage : Access to education can help delay marriage for girls, reducing the likelihood of early and unintended pregnancies. Initiatives that support girls’ education contribute to breaking the cycle of poverty and promoting reproductive autonomy.
• Improving Reproductive Health : Education equips girls with knowledge about reproductive health and family planning, empowering them to make informed choices about their bodies and futures. This includes access to comprehensive sex education and reproductive health services, as advocated by organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF.
• Advancing Gender Equality : Promoting girls’ education fosters better equal gender norms and opportunities, challenging traditional roles and empowering girls to pursue their aspirations. Achieving gender parity in education is a matter of human rights and a key driver of social and economic development.

Promoting Economic Empowerment

• Poverty Reduction: Economic empowerment initiatives, such as microfinance programs and vocational training, offer pathways out of poverty and contribute to more sustainable population growth. The  World Bank emphasizes the importance of economic opportunities in addressing demographic challenges.
• Job Creation and Entrepreneurship : Providing individuals, particularly women and marginalized communities, access to job training and entrepreneurship support can lead to economic independence and resilience. In turn, this can positively impact family planning decisions and household well-being.
• Breaking the Poverty-Overpopulation Cycle : Addressing poverty through economic empowerment disrupts the cycle of high fertility rates associated with poverty. Empowered individuals are better equipped to make informed decisions about family size and reproductive health.

Promoting Gender Equality

• Empowering Women’s Reproductive Choice s : Gender equality is intricately linked to reproductive autonomy, as women empowered with education and resources are better positioned to make decisions about their reproductive health. Organizations like UN Women advocate for gender-responsive policies and programs that promote women’s rights and agency.
• Political Representation : Ensuring women’s representation in decision-making processes, including healthcare and family planning policies, is essential for addressing gender disparities and promoting reproductive rights. Political empowerment initiatives contribute to shaping inclusive and equitable societies.
• Healthcare Access : Gender equality ensures equitable access to healthcare services, including maternal and reproductive healthcare. Strengthening healthcare systems and eliminating barriers to access are crucial steps in promoting women’s health and well-being.Promoting Human Rights
• Access to Basic Services : Guaranteeing individuals’ fundamental human rights, such as access to healthcare, education, and reproductive health services, is essential for achieving sustainable population growth. Organizations like Amnesty International advocate for policies and interventions that uphold human rights standards and promote social justice.
• Addressing Socioeconomic Disparities : Human rights-based approaches to development focus on addressing socioeconomic disparities and ensuring equitable access to opportunities and resources. By tackling root causes of inequality, such as discrimination and marginalization, these approaches contribute to fostering more equitable and sustainable societies.

Source:  https://aho.org/programmes/girls-empowerment-programme/

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4. Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is a holistic approach to development that seeks to balance economic, social, and environmental goals. This approach recognizes that economic growth and development must be sustainable over the long term and that environmental and social factors must be considered. 

Sustainable development can help address overpopulation by promoting economic growth and development while protecting the environment and promoting social equity. As  former UN Secretary-General Ban-Kimoon   remarked  during the Working Dinner Session on “Sustainable Development for All” at the 2013 G20 Saint Petersburg Leaders’ Summit: 

“Sustainable development is the pathway to the future we want for all.  It offers a framework to generate economic growth, achieve social justice, exercise environmental stewardship and strengthen governance.”

Some strategies for promoting sustainable development include:

Although the sustainable development strategies above offer pathways to address overpopulation while fostering economic prosperity, environmental stewardship, and social equity, implementing them comes with its own set of challenges:

• Lack of political will : Sustainable development often requires policy changes and investments in infrastructure and education. However,  some governments may be reluctant to make these changes, particularly if they are perceived as being costly or unpopular . Overcoming political inertia requires strong leadership, public advocacy, and the prioritization of long-term environmental and social objectives.
• Lack of funding : Sustainable development also requires funding, both from governments and from private sources. Sadly,  there may be limited funding available for sustainable development initiatives, particularly in low-income countries . Overcoming these barriers necessitates innovative financing mechanisms, incentives for sustainable investments, and partnerships between the public and private sectors.
• Resistance to change and lack of awareness : Traditional practices and entrenched interests can hinder the adoption of sustainable development strategies.  Resistance to change may stem from a lack of awareness or understanding of sustainability issues among individuals, communities, and industries . Education, awareness-raising campaigns, and stakeholder engagement are essential for overcoming resistance and fostering a culture of sustainability.
• Lack of coordination : Sustainable development requires coordination across multiple sectors and stakeholders, including governments, businesses, NGOs, and communities. However, achieving effective coordination can be challenging due to differing priorities, competing interests, and complex multi-stakeholder dynamics. Overcoming coordination challenges requires robust governance structures, inclusive decision-making processes, and mechanisms for stakeholder engagement and dialogue.

International organizations such as the United Nations have made  sustainable development a priority . The are also multiple initiatives underway to promote sustainable economic growth, protect the environment, and invest in education and health.

You may refer to the video below for some of the projects organized based on the United Nations Sustainable Goals (SDGs) worldwide and their progress as of 2018. The Asia Society also has a  comprehensive list of projects  that are aligned with the aforementioned goals.     

5. Immigration Policies

Expanding immigration policies presents a potential avenue for addressing overpopulation challenges, particularly in regions grappling with aging populations and declining birth rates. 

Immigration offers two main benefits in the context of overpopulation solutions:

• It can counterbalance the demographic trends of aging populations and low birth rates observed in certain regions . Immigrants, typically of working age, contribute to the labor force and help sustain economic productivity, which is crucial for supporting aging populations and ensuring economic vitality.
• It has the potential to alleviate pressure on densely populated areas by redistributing population growth to regions with lower population densities . This can help alleviate strain on infrastructure, housing, and natural resources in overcrowded urban centers while fostering economic development and revitalization in underpopulated areas.

Despite these potential benefits,  immigration policies are often contentious, especially in countries where anti-immigrant sentiment prevails.  Political debates surrounding immigration frequently center on concerns about job competition, the strain on public services, cultural integration, and national identity, with some people viewing immigrants as a burden to their countries.

In a  comprehensive 2019 study by the Pew Research Center , public perceptions of immigrants were measured across 18 countries. The survey revealed that majorities in 10 of the countries, including some with the highest numbers of migrants like the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia—each hosting upwards of 7 million immigrants as of 2017—view immigrants positively, seeing them as a source of strength rather than a burden.

In contrast, attitudes toward immigrants were less favorable in five other countries. Hungary, Greece, South Africa, Russia, and Israel were found to have majority views that perceive immigrants as a burden. Notably, excluding Russia, each of these countries hosted fewer than 5 million immigrants at the time of the survey.

The Netherlands presented a split in public opinion regarding the impact of immigration. Italy and Poland showed more inclination towards viewing immigrants as a burden. However, there were also significant portions of their populations that did not express a definitive view either for or against.

Data Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/14/around-the-world-more-say-immigrants-are-a-strength-than-a-burden/

In scenarios where public opinion on immigration is divided or leaned towards regarding immigrants as a burden, policymakers are often caught in a complex dilemma. On one side, there’s the practical necessity to address demographic imbalances, such as aging populations or labor shortages, which immigration can help alleviate. On the other, there’s the imperative to respond to domestic political pressures that may be fueled by economic concerns, cultural fears, or security issues linked to immigration.

With strategic policy interventions, immigration can be managed effectively to address overpopulation challenges while mitigating socio-political tensions .  

Comprehensive immigration policies that prioritize integration, economic contribution, and social cohesion can fa cilitate the smooth integration of immigrants into host societies while maximizing the benefits of demographic diversity.

To optimize immigration policies as a solution to overpopulation,  policymakers must consider factors such as  labor market needs, social integration programs, education and skills development initiatives, and measures to combat discrimination and xenophobia . 

By adopting a holistic approach to immigration management,  countries can harness the potential of immigration to address demographic challenges and promote sustainable population growth.

Both the  OECD  and the  UN  offer a comprehensive look at international migration policies, including the top rationale for their implementation .  

6. Technology and Innovation

Finally, technology and innovation can also play a pivotal role in addressing the multifaceted challenges of overpopulation. Several cutting-edge solutions have recently as critical tools in enhancing efficiency, promoting sustainability, and mitigating overpopulation’s strain on natural resources.

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Automation :  AI-driven technologies  and automation systems offer unprecedented opportunities to optimize resource utilization and streamline processes across various sectors.  From predictive analytics in agriculture to smart energy management systems, AI and automation enhance efficiency, reduce waste, and minimize environmental impact.
• Robotics : Robotics revolutionize industries ranging from manufacturing to healthcare, offering solutions to labor shortages and increasing productivity.  In agriculture, robotic systems automate tasks such as planting, harvesting, and monitoring crops, improving agricultural efficiency while reducing the need for manual labor and land use .
• Vertical Farming :  Vertical farming  represents a paradigm shift in agriculture, enabling food production in vertically stacked layers within controlled indoor environments.  By utilizing hydroponic or aeroponic systems and LED lighting, vertical farms maximize space utilization, conserve water, and minimize environmental footprint compared to traditional farming methods.
• Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering : Innovations in biotechnology, gene editing, and genetic engineering hold promise for addressing food security challenges and resource scarcity.  Genetically modified crops engineered for drought resistance, pest resilience, or enhanced nutritional content offer sustainable alternatives to conventional agriculture, reducing the pressure on land and water resources .
• Renewable Energy Technologies : The transition to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power plays a crucial role in mitigating environmental degradation and reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with overpopulation.  Advancements in energy storage technologies and grid integration enhance the reliability and scalability of renewable energy systems, accelerating the shift toward a sustainable energy future.

While these technological solutions offer promising avenues for addressing overpopulation,  ethical and environmental considerations must be paramount. Concerns regarding data privacy, job displacement, genetic manipulation, and ecological impact necessitate robust ethical frameworks and regulatory oversight to ensure responsible deployment and minimize adverse consequences. 

By balancing technological innovation with ethical and environmental stewardship, society can harness the transformative potential of technology to navigate the challenges posed by overpopulation.

Conclusion 

Overpopulation is a complex issue with far-reaching implications for the environment, society, and economy . However, it is also an issue that can be addressed through a range of solutions.

From increasing access to family planning services and education to promoting sustainable lifestyles and reducing waste,  there are many strategies we can use to promote more sustainable population growth. 

Policies such as immigration reform and investments in technology and innovation may offer additional solutions for addressing overpopulation. 

Ultimately, the key to effective overpopulation solutions lies in recognizing the importance of taking a holistic approach that considers social, economic, environmental, and ethical factors. 

By utilizing these strategies together—and engaging multiple stakeholders—we can create a more balanced world where everyone has access to the resources they need to thrive.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does contraception contribute to addressing overpopulation?

Contraception plays a key role in addressing overpopulation by providing individuals with the means to plan and space out their pregnancies, leading to lower birth rates and a more balanced population growth.

What is the significance of empowering women in the context of overpopulation?

Empowering women and girls is crucial for addressing overpopulation, as it has been shown that educated and empowered women tend to have fewer children, which positively impacts future population growth.

How can birth rates be effectively controlled to address overpopulation?

Birth rates can be controlled through comprehensive reproductive health education, access to family planning services, and policies that promote responsible parenthood and smaller family sizes.

What role does educating people about the impact of overpopulation play in finding a solution?

Educating people about the impact of overpopulation is essential in creating awareness and fostering a collective effort toward finding sustainable solutions. It helps individuals understand the importance of addressing the issue and taking proactive measures to control population growth.

How does addressing overpopulation contribute to creating a sustainable world?

Addressing overpopulation is fundamental to creating a sustainable world as it directly impacts the planet’s resources, environmental stability, and the well-being of future generations. By managing population growth, we can strive to create a balanced and sustainable existence for all.

How does reducing immigration numbers contribute to managing overpopulation?

Reducing immigration numbers can have an impact on overpopulation by helping regulate population size within specific regions, which in turn can alleviate strain on resources and infrastructure in densely populated areas.

How can individuals contribute to addressing overpopulation and make a positive difference?

Individuals can contribute to addressing overpopulation by advocating for comprehensive reproductive health education, supporting initiatives that empower women and girls, and making informed choices about family planning. By understanding the impact of overpopulation and taking proactive measures, individuals can play a vital role in fostering sustainable population growth. 

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A Brief on Overpopulation – Why it Matters and What You Can Do About It

Erin Brown | April 4, 2023 | Leave a Comment

Photo by Candace McDaniel on StockSnap

As humanity has surpassed the 8 billion people milestone, it is more important now than ever to talk about population. What will we do if we continue to grow at exponential rates? What are ethical, viable strategies to decrease population?

“First off, let me get this straight, discussing addressing overpopulation does not mean discussing killing people. The goal is actually to prevent it.” – Dr. Jane O’Sullivan

Current world population in January 2023: 8 billion

The current rate of population growth is around 80 million people per year. There are over 8 billion people on the planet, the last billion added in less than the last 12 years. 

The Earth’s first billion people milestone took from the beginning of human history until the 1800s to be achieved. Then, due to the industrial revolution, humanity reached the second billion mark by 1930 (taking only 130 years), reached the third billion in 1960 (only took 30 years), then reached the fourth billion by 1974 (only took 14 years), and the fifth billion by 1987 (only took 13 years). We hit 6 billion in 1999 (which took 12 years) and hit 7 billion in 2011 (which took about 12 years). At the current growth rate, the world population will reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2057.

The growth rate is declining, but not at a fast enough rate to combat the exponential compound growth. The growth rate was 2% in the 1970s. Now it is 1.05%. Any growth rate above 1% means we are still adding more people to the planet every year. 

What is overpopulation? 

Overpopulation is a human population in numbers high enough to cause environmental deterioration, impaired quality of life, or population crash. 

Why is overpopulation an issue? 

Overrun natural resources can only lead to death by starvation, conflict, and disease, and the only viable alternative is voluntary restraint on human births.

What is carrying capacity?

Carrying capacity is defined as the maximum population of a species that an area will support without undergoing deterioration. 

Paul R. Ehrlich and other scientists estimate the world’s optimum population for carrying capacity (at a comfortable standard of living – editor’s note) to be less than two billion people – 6 billion fewer than on the planet today. “But the longer humanity pursues business as usual, the smaller the sustainable society is likely to prove to be. We’re continuously harvesting the low-hanging fruit, for example by driving fisheries stocks to extinction” – Paul Ehrlich says.

How do we revert population overshoot to a sustainable population level? 

Geologist Art Berman explains population overshoot this way: “Overshoot means that humans are using natural resources and polluting at rates beyond the planet’s capacity to recover. The main cause of overshoot is the extraordinary growth of the human population made possible by fossil energy. Concerns about overshoot and population raised more than 40 years ago were dismissed. Climate change has captured public awareness more recently although many doubt that it is an emergency. Overshoot is more difficult to dispute; it destroys rainforests, leads to the extinction of other species, the pollution of land, rivers, and seas, the acidification of the oceans, and the loss of fisheries and coral reefs. People understandably want to know the solutions. Overshoot is the problem we must address. Any plan that includes continued growth is doomed to fail.”

What can we do?  Jane O’Sullivan outlines the two options for addressing population overshoot – i ncrease the Earth’s carrying capacity or decrease population.

Increasing Earth’s carrying capacity

We are already doing this by (a) using fewer natural resources per person, or (b) increasing productivity by finding more ways to use resources. This only defers the problem and creates collateral damage. 

Decreasing population numbers

If we talk about this now, the hope is to increase our options for solutions. One of the biggest challenges to facing overpopulation head-on and discussing a decreasing population are the stigmas and myths associated with reducing human population numbers. An elaborate set of myths has emerged in opposition to reducing population levels. These myths may prevent even environmentalists from viewing overpopulation as an issue.  Jane O’Sullivan elucidates on the following six myths that make inaction a virtue.

Myth 1 – The human population is stabilizing, and birth rates are decreasing

Truth – Birth rates started declining in the 1970s-90s due to family planning, but not low enough. The number of mothers is still increasing faster than family planning is decreasing the birth rate .  We are still having more births per year than ever before. The total fertility rate has decreased, but as fertility decline has slowed to a trickle, the number of total births has continued to increase. 

Myth 2  – China is the only one with the problem and they used cruel methods (one-child policy)

Truth – Family planning programs have helped many countries successfully reduce births through voluntary means, including China, before the one-child policy.

Myth 3 – Poverty causes population growth, therefore development is the best contraceptive

I.e., family planning is unnecessary and inefficient as long as there is development.

Truth – If this was true, we would see the population decline as development increases. However, it is the decrease in fertility rates that drove economic development, not the other way around. This myth is therefore “correlation implying causation” in the wrong direction. The poorest countries could lower their population by family planning just as quickly as rich countries if they choose to prioritize it.

Countries of families with four or more children, on average, have the lowest level of development; in families with 3 children or fewer the level goes up by some degree, and with two or fewer children development soars. The current focus should be on expanding provisions for teachers, doctors, equality, etc. instead of just giving people what they need. 

Myth 4 – Educating girls is the key to ending population growth

Truth – Another indirect approach that excludes a discussion on the benefit of small families and ending population growth. Educating girls helps but not much unless it is also flanked by family planning efforts. Family planning has a stronger effect on women regulating their fertility, decreasing the fertility gap between the educated and uneducated, and with family planning, girls are more likely to stay in school.

Myth 5 – Population growth is good for the economy

Truth – This makes people poorer as shown under Myth #3. 

Myth 6 – Population growth in poor nations does not matter because of their “tiny carbon footprint”

Truth –  Population growth is a greater threat than climate change. The best way for anyone to decrease their carbon footprint is to have one less kid.

Therefore, family planning is the most economical way to a sustainable future.

What action can each of us take?

1. Discuss smaller family sizes with your partner, family, and friends – how do we aim for birth rates lower than two children per couple?

2. Share information about the environmental impacts of population growth with friends and family. Advocate for action to reduce and reverse population growth.

3. Reassess concerns about aging   – how can we shift away from worshipping eternal youth, to accepting and valuing the entire life cycle? 

4. Celebrate population decline – what are possible depopulation dividends? 

5. Support organizations and efforts that support family planning and women’s education.

Damien Carrington, an environmental editor at The Guardian, interviewed Prof. Paul Ehrlich about the solutions:

“The solutions are tough,” Ehrlich says. “To start, make modern contraception and backup abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay, and opportunities with men. Focus on overconsumption and equity issues. Specifically women’s rights and the explicit countering of racism.”

Ehrlich also says that an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen…Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources… It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as the perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems. As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”

If cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources, how can the rich and the poor come together across the world to solve this issue?

Anne and Paul Ehrlich expand on their “vision for a cure” :

“Rich white people love to hold meetings to discuss the ‘population problem’ which always ends up focusing on the very real demographic difficulties of those with darker skin tones, especially people who live in Africa and Latin America. But isn’t it really time for the poor people of the world, especially those not in need of tanning beds, to extend a helping hand to the major villains of the destruction of humanity’s life-support systems? Could they not hold an educational conference in Washington, D.C. to explain why civilization is going down the drain, to the per-capita most environmentally destructive giant nation on the planet? Leaders from the “South” could both organize the event and supply experts to educate the wealthy and middle class on their ethical responsibilities and ways to meet them. We envision learning sessions on topics such as:

• Avoiding the second child.
• The population problem beyond numbers: inequality and waste of talent. 
• Are borders ethical?
• Population shrinkage for politicians.
• GDP shrinkage for economists.
• Do Trump and his colleagues prove that the lighter your skin, the lighter your brain?
• Citizens United: It’s time for euthanasia for corporations.
• Redistribution and survival.
• Disbanding “Murder Incorporated”: gun manufacturers and big pharma.
• How to end plastic production.
• The historical contributions of the global South to the food enjoyed by the North.
• How biodiversity loss is accompanied by the loss of human cultural diversity.
• We know our populations are growing too fast; how to help us help ourselves?
• Why anti-abortion laws kill poor women.

You can doubtless think of others. The possibilities are endless”.

References: 

Berman, Art. The Climate-Change Trip to Abilene. July 13, 2022.  https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/the-climate-change-trip-to-abilene/

Carrington, Damien. Interview with Paul Ehrlich: Collapse of civilization is a near certainty within decades. July 9, 2020.  https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich

Ehrlich, Anne H.; Ehrlich, Paul R. Overpopulation In America -And Its Cures. November 14, 2019.  https://mahb.stanford.edu/blog/overpopulation-america-cures/

O’Sullivan, Jane. The tenth presentation at the Delivering the Human Future Conference. Titled: The Future of the Human Population. March 21, 2021.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shUNJPLpXpQ

Population Statistics.  https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

The MAHB Blog is a venture of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere. Questions should be directed to [email protected]

The Overpopulation Project

TOP – Research and Outreach

Too many people consuming too much

Solutions to overpopulation and what you can do

By The Overpopulation Project

Here at The Overpopulation Project, we try to keep a positive outlook. Although many environmental trends are grim, there exist clear paths forward toward a more sustainable world: one where people steward resources for the future and share habitat and resources generously with other species.

Recently, a correspondent wrote challenging us to identify solutions to the demographic and environmental problems we write about. We appreciate the reminder to remain forward looking and in response share the ideas below. Obviously, no one person or organization can cover all these efforts. But each of us can do something and together we can create a sustainable world.

These are personal and policy suggestions that we and others study. Some points are obvious, others fairly well established, but all need more research. If you are a scientist or scholar, one of the most important actions to take is to address population matters in your research, or join other researchers who are doing so.

What suggestions would you add or take off this list? Which ideas need further research? We would love to hear from you!

Actions on the individual level

• Have fewer children! One is good, two is enough – read more here>>
• Consider adoption!
• Read, educate yourself about population issues – read more here>>
• Reduce your personal consumption: go vegan, limit flying, share your household with others, and more>>
• Educate your teenage child(ren) about sex and contraception early, without taboos
• Spread your knowledge and concern among your friends and family, raise awareness about overpopulation on social media – read more here>>
• Donate to family planning programs in your own or other countries – for example to International Planned Parenthood , FP2020 or another equally deserving organization
• Vote for politicians who acknowledge the detrimental impacts of population growth and propose political solutions

Actions on the community level

• Join local environmental groups, encouraging them to “connect the dots” between population and the environment and address population issues
• Write opinion pieces for local newspapers, contact local media sources requesting more reporting on population issues – create demand!
• Municipalities should set growth management boundaries, discouraging sprawl development on their fringes
• Towns and cities should purchase surrounding lands, or the development rights to such lands, in order to set them aside as nature preserves and open space
• City councils should pass resolutions accepting limits to growth, and directing their national governments to develop policies to stabilize or reduce national populations

Actions on the national level

In high fertility developing countries, governments should …  

• Generously fund family planning programs
• Make modern contraception legal, free and available everywhere, even in remote areas
• Improve health care to reduce infant and child mortality
• Restrict child marriage and raise the legal age of marriage (minimum 18 years)
• Introduce obligatory education as long as possible (minimum until the age of 16), and generously fund the necessary infrastructure

In low fertility developed countries, governments should …  

• Embrace rather than fight aging and shrinking societies – read more here>>
• Reorganize pensions and other socio-economic systems to accommodate aging societies
• Eliminate baby bonuses, government funding for fertility treatments, and other incentives to raise fertility rates
• Reduce immigration numbers (at least to a level that will stabilize national populations, preferably to one that will lower them) – read our blog  here>>
• Reduce resource consumption and pollution through an effective mix of taxes, incentives and regulations

In every country, governments should …  

• Empower women, assuring equal rights, treatment and opportunities for both genders
• Provide information and access to reproductive health care, including all types of low cost, safe, effective contraception – read more here>>
• Make sterilization free, for men and women, or at least covered under all healthcare plans
• Legalize abortion without restrictions or social stigma – read our blog here>>
• Integrate family planning and safe motherhood programs into primary health care systems
• Make population and environmental issues and sex education part of the basic educational curriculum
• Disincentivize third and further children non-coercively, by limiting government support to the first two children
• Create a national population policy built around an optimal population size , and work to achieve it
• Set aside half the national landscape free from intensive development and dedicated to biodiversity protection – read more  here>>

Actions on the global level

• Make “ending population growth” one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals – read our blog  here>>
• Greatly increase the amount of foreign aid going to family planning – learn more here>>
• Change the current foreign aid distribution, giving more support for health and education, while ending international military aid – read more here>>
• Global religious leaders should approve modern contraception methods and forcefully reject a fatalistic view of procreation – read more here>>
• Financially support media programs designed to change social norms to bolster family planning, best example is  Population Media Center
• Hold a new global population conference , the first in twenty-five years, to reaffirm the ecological need to limit human numbers and the basic human right to family planning
• Connect family planning to international environmental and development funding; e.g., include family planning in the Green Climate Fund
• Create a new global treaty to end population growth, with all countries choosing population targets every half decade with a plan on how to achieve them (similar to the NDC format) – read our blog here>>
• Create an online platform similar to the ClimateWatch platform, where visitors can see countries’ goals, plans and achievements to date

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24 responses to “Solutions to overpopulation and what you can do”

While not everyone will agree with every recommendation, the idea of such a comprehensive list seems sound to me and worth maintaining, modifying, and publicizing.

The idea you suggested is seems it brings better outcome in our country.. But the main important thing here is we should understand the drastic problem of raising population.. And government should implement some law for adopting one child that’s enough. It should be follow strictly to each and every people in our country. We cannot imagine better life by harming nature and as population increase it depletes the nature🌿🍃 we should try to make influence to as much people as we can.. And make them aware of our environment

I like your suggestions EXCEPT “go vegan”. Widespread veganism would destroy topsoil, decimate biodiversity, malnourish most of humanity, and accelerate consolidation of the control of our food supply systems by the 0.01%. If you’re really interested in sustainable solutions for people and the planet, then take “go vegan” off your list. Let me know if you want references for facts about the dangers of veganism.

Thank you for your comment, references for facts about the dangers of veganism are very much welcome!

Sorry, I didn’t see your request for references until yesterday. Here is some information…

The UN report was published over 12 years ago and has been proven by numerous scientists and economists to be deeply flawed. In truth, greenhouse gas production by livestock is much lower and pales in comparison to the amounts generated from fossil fuels. Irrigated grain or bean production requires much larger amounts of water than livestock production. And although emissions from factory farms are indeed environmentally heinous, raising livestock in a sustainable manner on organic pastures builds soil fertility and sequesters carbon from the atmosphere. In contrast, the industrial production of grains – the caloric basis of a vegetarian diet – erodes the topsoil which sustains humanity and removes most all animal life from huge tracts of land. Two excellent books detailing the facts are Defending Beef by Nicolette Hahn Niman and The Vegetarian Myth by Lierre Keith. A recent analysis by USDA scientists also concludes that beef production is not a significant contributor to global warming ( https://www.ars.usda.gov/news-events/news/research-news/2019/study-clarifies-us-beefs-resource-use-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ ).

I agree with you, but please share all of your information about why veganism do not change anything. Have too many people around me who thinks this is the solution. Naive I say.

please send links right here!

Hi, your idea about harm of veganism is interesting for me, can you send a references about its danger?

They did, on March 24th 2019 at 4:47 PM.

please stop using the term “family planning” so much. High percentages of people are unmarried, and more people are living quite nicely as singles. They want to control their production, not plan their family. You alienate many people by forcing everyone into a “family” mode. Talk about being nonreproductive, not reducing the number of children. It is better if more become childfree.

The future looks promising. I think you have a point about having fewer children in the future. It’s actually happening already. In China they have a one child policy to reduce overpopulation, which is great. I think most of the things you’ve just wrote about are going to happen one day in the future. However, i don’t agree that the majority of people will go vegan.

China ended its 1 child policy in 2015

The population of a country , i.e., Human Resources is the most important and only active component of production . Besides , it is the ultimate beneficiary of all economic developments, progress and prosperity When the population is excessive , the per capita income is low and so the standard of living is also very poor. The poor living standard makes a person less efficient . The lower efficiency of labour hinders the very progress of the nation.

I agree with this statement – Eliminate baby bonuses, government funding for fertility treatments, and other incentives to raise fertility rates.

Possibly have tax incentives/bonuses starting for people of the age of 25 that haven’t had any kids. Every year they don’t have kids this bonus increases a small amount.

Why is the whole thing copied from https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/solutions-overpopulation-can/ this website

Dear Bionicpenguin54,

MAHB republished our “Solutions to Overpopualtion” page, and that is OK since we are members of MAHB. They note on the page you linked, that the author is The Overpopulation Project.

For a foundation against the terrestrial overpopulation

there was alot of awareness in the sixties. groups like zpg and books like the population bomb. why did it go away?

Why not just be upfront that this list of suggestions is a political ideology and has little to do with the specific issue of population growth? We will get to the 10s of billions and it will stabilise regardless of whether this list of solutions is acted upon or not. I mean what does limiting flights and going vegan have to do with the specific issue or population growth? It’s wishy washy.

As a research and outreach group, we work with the causes and effects of overpopulation. Some of the things listed on this page (as you mention, limiting flights and going vegan) may not specifically have to do with population growth per se, but the effects of that growth is inexorably linked to consumption. This can be illustrated using the IPAT equation, I=PxAxT, where I stands for impact (on the environment), P for population, A for affluence (representing consumption), and T for technology. An increase in either population or affluence greatly inflates a group’s impact on the environment. So a country of a certain population size with a high consumption rate will have a larger impact on the environment than that of a similarly sized country with a lower consumption rate. Overpopulation, indicating too many people consuming more than the earth can provide, is therefore linked both to the number of people there are on the planet or in a country, and how much they consume.

Additionally, the notion that the human population may stabilise somewhere around the 10s of billions should be cause for concern. Humanity is already causing mass extinctions of other species and has severely altered 75% of the Earth’s land surface. The number of people globally who are malnourished is increasing. As these already are large problems with our current population of 7.8 billion, increasing the population to well over 10 billion would likely be disastrous, both for nature and the wellbeing of humankind. Several attempts to quantify an optimal population size, which would allow for a good standard of living for everyone while also leaving plenty of room for other species to thrive, finds it to be around 3 billion (see for example https://overpopulation-project.com/new-book-argues-for-a-sustainable-world-with-3-billion-people/ ).

Most of the things listed on this page can act directly towards humanely lowering the national or global population size. For example, over 220 million women in developing countries want to avoid pregnancy but lack access to contraceptives. Ensuring access to contraceptives is one of the important things that organisations that work with family planning programmes strive towards, and therefore supporting them can be a direct help to such women. Humanely developed family planning programmes can be highly successful at lowering fertility rates, as can be seen by the examples highlighted in our family planning success series, so these actions can certainly have an effect ( https://overpopulation-project.com/family-planning-success-stories/ ).

The earth does have enough resources to support an even larger population than 10 bil, its just we are not using it to the best of our abilities, instead we mass produce the most unhealthiest of foods, and are buying up all the small farms that don’t use gmo’s trying to turn the world into on big monarchy, with a few people at the top controlling everything.(like everything, the news, food water, our minds) True solutions should be looking into way to reduce carbon footprint and increase the use of free energy, encouraging people to be more aware of nature and aware of the ingredients going into the body, (i’m just using the food example continuously because its the easiest to explain, and often more palatable, pun intended) encouraging people to live outside in their surroundings, instead of mindlessly following the “leader” and listening to people like you, like complete imbeciles. Promoting abortion, or forced limitations on a woman’s reproductive choice, implicated by dictators who couldn’t even explain the true science behind it, (because there is none) and is we look at China the country who did implicate anti-natalist laws, limiting their citizens to 1 child, and the in the end the goal was not quite achieved, and in the process there was an alarmingly high number of “nitty gritty” activities taking place because of it, “murders” of newborns, due to gender, is just on of them, but you’ll never talk about that…

True solutions: , Yes we should be helping underdeveloped countries become more self sustainable, and “healthier”, but the perspective of what “healthy” is needs to change, supporting underdeveloped countries to become even better then the highly developed countries, by taking free energy and using it to power farms and greenhouse to produce a multitude of fruits and veggies, instead of mass producing and completely intoxicating our meat, (which is what’s actually harmful), going back more into the medieval days, by having heards and of cattle, and having these smaller farms everywhere in available reach to the general public, so they have the ability to support themselves, instead of relying on one mass farm (with no clue as to whats being used in the “food”), relying on one truck to bring it to that one main grocery store, never in your 75 years of living knowing that potatoes grow in the ground, i’m not saying get rid of the city and buildings, i believe if we incorporated sustaining ourselves more into life, people would feel more fulfilled, and the false pretence or narrative that somehow we are at an unhealthy number for are population would go away, if people just realized the earth is fine and the eco system was beautifully made to support itself, it was us who started exploiting its natural resources, creating imbalance, and we are told it is necessary but really its not, but they dont want you to believe that, because it defeats “their” narrative, but that’s a completely different conversation. Educating women in LIC’s that have a high amount of kids is not necessary for them to be “successful” is a good idea though.

We at The Overpopulation Project agree with you that one major part of the solution is to reduce our carbon footprint and increase the use of free energy. As I’m sure you have seen, it is one of the solutions listed on our site. However, there are not enough resources to support such a large population as we currently are, not in the long run. A study by Tamburino and Bravo showed that even if everyone on Earth only consumed the resources necessary to live a decent life and no more, we would still be exceeding Earth’s biocapacity ( https://overpopulation-project.com/reconciling-human-demands-with-planetary-boundaries/ ). Additionally, it has been estimated that without using synthetic fertilizers, only 4 billion people can be supported by our agriculture ( https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-does-synthetic-fertilizer-feed ), and that the world will need 50% more food production by 2050 in large part due to population growth ( https://research.wri.org/wrr-food ). The World Resource Institute report also acknowledges the extensive challenges of providing enough food and the major changes that are needed. This is all happening at a time when we are facing a sixth global extinction of species, where half of all habitable land is used for agriculture ( https://ourworldindata.org/global-land-for-agriculture ) and we have severely altered 75% of the planet’s land surface according to the 2019 IPBES report.

What we promote is the access to abortion to those who want it, in tandem with access to contraceptives and education. Forced limitation on women’s reproductive choices is the opposite of what we stand for. You bring up China’s one child policy, which was a gross disregard to human rights and was condemned by international family planning experts world wide, as well it should. Such horrific methods must always be condemned and should never be used. Voluntary methods on the other hand, through educating and removing stigmas about the use of contraceptives while making them freely available, together with empowering women, are effective while strengthening human rights. See our examples on successful family planning programs here: https://overpopulation-project.com/family-planning-success-stories/ .

It is a stated human right to make an informed decision about how many children to have and the spacing of those children, yet this right is denied many. Almost half of women in low to middle income countries have no decision-making power over their contraceptive use and sex-life according to a UN report, and over 220 million women in developing nations desire to delay or prevent pregnancies but lack access to contraceptives. Through education and access to family planning methods many women choose to have fewer children; this is what we promote.

I saw a film in 1970 ish called Zero Population Growth loosely based on the non fiction book by Paul Ehrlich called The Population bomb. It had a real impact on me but I never ever see in shown on any channels, it would perhaps seem outdated now but nevertheless it still addressed the issues. It scared me enough, I only had one child..

[…] is an issue which we still might be able to fix. Only if we truly wish for things to develop in a sustainable manner.  Firstly, education is […]

People probably won’t share their household because they might think they are intruders.

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Solving the ‘population problem’ through policy

Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University

Disclosure statement

Liz Allen is a council member of the Australian Population Association.

Australian National University provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.

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This is part of a major series called Advancing Australia, in which leading academics examine key issues facing Australia in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election and beyond. Read the other pieces in the series here .

Australia has a problem with population. It’s a problem with the potential to result in enormous chaos, risking the nation’s economic well-being. And this problem is moving like an overcrowded Sydney train, careering out of control towards inevitable carnage.

Much of this population problem is of our own making: past demographic successes and policy and funding complacency have created a ticking time bomb. Politicians have struggled to manage the population problem, but no longer have the luxury of looking away.

Read more: Australia doesn't have a population policy – why?

With the dial on public sentiment set to outrage , fuelling a population problem far removed from reality, it’s time for a reasoned consideration of the population policy needs of Australia.

An effective population policy would focus on quality of life, from the cradle to the grave. Numerous policy domains feature: education and training, health care, housing, employment, the environment, and many more.

The problem with population

Australians’ average life expectancy is among the longest in the world. Much of our longevity is thanks to medical technology and investments in childhood immunisations .

Access to birth control allows greater freedom to choose the number of children we have. Women have benefited from social change that has enabled a world outside the home and transformed traditional caring roles – although gender equality remains a work in progress .

We’ve invested in ourselves, and the investment has paid off.

But our successes have created a different demography . We’re living longer and not replacing ourselves through births. The result is a bigger bulge in the relative proportion of older people, an ageing population.

Population ageing in its own right isn’t a concern. The challenges it poses can be turned into opportunities.

Difficulties come from the balance of the population contributing income tax versus people no longer in the workforce. As government coffers get tighter, determining what should and can be funded is a challenge . For example, the education needs of young people will compete with the growing healthcare costs of older people.

Immigration has featured as an important complement to natural increase (births minus deaths) as a way to offset the shortfall in the workforce resulting from population ageing, as well as enriching our multicultural nation .

Australia’s policy response to the challenge of an ageing population have been inadequate . In the absence of any coherent policy, the nation’s economy has come to rely on a quasi-population policy. Governments use an immigration ceiling as the lever over time to respond to workforce needs stemming from demographic pressures.

Immigration is the easiest of the demographic levers to pull. But focusing solely on immigration as an approach to population policy undermines the suite of issues that comprise the full population puzzle.

How Australia grows

Australia has grown at a higher rate than most OECD countries . Overall population size, age structure and density, and a country’s stage of economic development are factors that help explain this.

An obsession with the rate of growth has plagued public discourse and pressured decision-makers to bow to populist fears. An example is cutting immigration intake contrary to the evidence .

Latest data show Australia’s population grew by 1.6% in the 12 months to June 2018. This growth was comprised of 153,800 people from natural increase and 236,700 people from net overseas migration.

Population growth, and demography generally, is seen as an inevitable thing: destiny. Demography as destiny appears to have been the motivator for successive Australian governments to simply shut their eyes to the issues of population growth.

Where people live across Australia has become a major focus, particularly in the main destinations for immigrants: Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Concerns have been raised about inadequate infrastructure in our main cities.

Population policy solutions

A coherent whole-of-government population policy is a priority for Australia’s government.

Population policy is too often overlooked because, let’s face it, it’s hard. But solving the population problem is crucial to Australia moving forward without the presently inevitable train crash.

Population policy isn’t just about population growth, distribution and change. Education and employment, healthcare, transport, housing and the environment must feature in a joined-up approach to population policy.

Effective population policy would be to set a blueprint for the future of what we want and should be, then mapping milestones to ensure we’re tracking against the aims. This requires significant commitment and transformation in government and in public sentiment – no easy feat.

There is no need for an overall population target, or growth target. The current immigration intake ceiling is about right. If anything, immigration could be increased .

Read more: Migration helps balance our ageing population – we don't need a moratorium

Policy must engage the people

The first steps toward a solution for Australia involves taking back the narrative of population, from problematising to problem-solving. We all have a role. The focus needs to be on advancing a fair Australia by creating opportunities out of the challenges of population ageing. That means investing in Australians (locals and migrants) to live quality lives.

Quality of life is one thing that unites all Australians, regardless of whether they’re pro-immigration or not. This is how all Australians can be appealed to in order to gain buy-in from the electorate. Commitment from politicians to avoid divisive practices could be harnessed through innovation narratives .

Public engagement with the process of making opportunities of population ageing challenges could be achieved through a program similar to the Challenge of Change campaign . Ideally, such an undertaking would not be partisan.

In the medium term Australia needs to plan for growth, even if immigration were to be cut. Accommodating population growth is about planning, including adequate funding. Healthy, prosperous communities and cities across Australia require adequate investment in essential infrastructure.

Sending migrants to regional areas and imposing punitive measures if they try to leave is not the answer. Cities are the main receivers of migration because this is where most of the population lives, and thus where the opportunities exist.

Read more: Migrants are stopping regional areas from shrinking

Australia must have strong global cities. To this end transportation, housing, employment and education in the major cities should continue to be built upon. At the same time, promoting regional living for overseas migrants and locals is a worthwhile endeavour if essential infrastructure is adequate.

Population is ultimately a bunch of people with aspirations and dreams trying to find their way. We just need the leadership.

• Immigration policy
• Population ageing
• Cities & Policy
• population policy
• Federal election 2019
• Immigration rates
• Advancing Australia

Head of School, School of Arts & Social Sciences, Monash University Malaysia

Chief Operating Officer (COO)

Clinical Teaching Fellow

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Director, Social Policy

Human population has grown beyond Earth’s sustainable means. We are consuming more resources than our planet can regenerate, with devastating consequences.

Why population matters

All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder — and ultimately impossible — to solve with ever more people. Sir David Attenborough, Population Matters patron

It took humanity 200,000 years to reach one billion and only 200 years to reach seven billion. We are still adding an extra 80 million each year and are headed towards 10 billion by mid-century. 

We have to address overpopulation

More people inevitably put more demands on the planet. More people require more food, water, sanitation, homes, public services, and amenities – but our Earth is struggling to cope. Populations of wild species have plummeted, global temperatures are rising, our seas are full of plastic and forests are disappearing.

Humans are directly responsible for the sixth mass extinction and the  climate crisis , the most serious environmental threats our planet has ever faced. 

In the rich world, we consume at astronomical and unsustainable levels . That cannot continue, and we must change our behaviour. Today, a child born in the US will produce 24 times more consumption carbon emissions per year than one born in Nigeria.

Addressing how people consume is not enough, however. We are already using the resources of more than one-and-a-half planets. Everyone has the right to a good quality of life and with increasing global affluence, the collective impact of billions more of us will increase even further. This is why we cannot ignore population.

Together, we can do something about it

The UN’s projections show that very small changes in the size of families across the globe make an enormous difference – between a population of 7 billion and an unthinkable 16 billion by the end of the century.

We can achieve a sustainable global population when communities, governments and organisations take action to enable people to choose smaller families through women’s empowerment and easy access to high quality education and family planning. By doing so, we can ensure that, in the future, everyone can have a decent standard of living on a healthy planet.

Population Matters is putting population on the global agenda, bringing the issue to an international audience through our campaigning , education and research.

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Ending population growth can be achieved through positive, empowering, choice-based actions which improve people’s lives and bring multiple other benefits.

Mythbusting

There are many misconceptions about population – what the numbers say, what the impact is, and what population campaigners want to do about it. We look at some of the common myths – and provide the answers.

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To achieve a sustainable global population, people need to be empowered, informed and persuaded. Our campaigns are intended to bring about vital changes that make a real difference. Find out more about what we’re doing, and how you can help.

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Tackling Population Pressure

Every day we add 227,000 more people to the planet — and the UN predicts human population will surpass 11 billion by the end of the century. As the world's population grows, so do its demands for water, land, trees and fossil fuels — all of which come at a steep price for already endangered plants and animals.

Reproductive health, rights and justice are threatened by the same systems of oppression that overexploit the environment and drive the extinction crisis. But through solutions like gender equity and a just transition to sustainable consumption and production, we can promote human rights; decrease poverty and overcrowding; raise standards of living; and allow people and nature to thrive.

The Center has been working to address the connection between human population pressure and the extinction crisis since 2009. Our innovative campaigns focus on commonsense solutions such as gender empowerment, the education of all people, universal access to all forms of sexual and reproductive healthcare, sustainable and equitable lifestyle choices, an economy that doesn’t rely on endless growth, and a societal commitment to improve living conditions for all species.  

Endangered Species Condoms

Endangered Species Condoms offer a fun, unique way to break through the taboo and get people talking about the link between human population growth and the wildlife extinction crisis.

The Extinction Crisis

Most biologists agree we're in the midst of the Earth's sixth mass extinction event; species are disappearing at the greatest rate since dinosaurs roamed the planet. This time, though, it isn't because of geologic or cosmic forces — it's because of our unsustainable growth and consumption.

Human Population Growth and Urban Sprawl

As our human footprint reaches farther and farther into remote areas in search of room to build cities, housing developments, golf courses and new farms, we're squeezing wildlife into ever smaller habitat refuges, often leaving endangered species with nowhere to go.

Climate Change

A  2009 study  of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the “carbon legacy” of just one child in the United States can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person is able to conserve by taking other energy-saving actions.

Bringing Population Back Into the Conversation

Human population growth and consumption are at the root of our most pressing environmental crises, but they’re often left out of the conversation. We can fight to curb climate change, stop habitat loss, and clean up pollution, but if we don't also fight for reproductive justice for those most severely harmed by these environmental crises — including young people, immigrants, Black, Indigenous and people of color, minoritized ethnic and religious groups, LGBTQIA+ communities and rural communities — it'll remain an uphill battle we can't win. The first step to solving a problem is getting people to talk about it.

The Center is working to put the spotlight back on human population growth and the need to fight for reproductive and environmental justice. We're using creative media like our award-winning  Endangered Species Condoms  to start conversations on a person-to-person basis nationwide; we’re circulating videos  to explain the connections between population growth and other environmental problems and highlight the importance of healthcare for all. We're also bringing the message to museums, science centers and classrooms through fun and interactive Pillow Talk events, via virtual and in-person film series, and through social media campaigns.

Supporting Reproductive Justice

Everyone plays a role in human population growth, but when it comes to reproductive decisions, women and gender-diverse people are disproportionately affected by a lack of empowerment and access to healthcare, which not only affects their reproductive futures but also income and wealth equity, education, and leadership opportunities. Many people worldwide and in the United States are unable to get the sexual and reproductive healthcare they want or need. Unfortunately U.S. lawmakers and courts are currently doing everything they can to restrict reproductive freedom, including bans on comprehensive sex education and abortion.

Reproductive justice is environmental justice. In order to make sure we leave room for wildlife, it's critical that every pregnancy is planned and that people have the ability to decide when — or if — they want their family to grow. When people have access to voluntary contraception and equal education, they tend to choose to delay childbearing and have smaller families, leading to lower fertility rates. The Center supports unfettered access to education, reproductive healthcare and gender equity for all. Every person should have the tools, information and autonomy to make the best reproductive choice for themselves and the planet.

Help support our cutting-edge work in the Population and Sustainability Program.

JUSTICE & POLICY POSITIONS

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Contact: Kelley Dennings

The Center for Biological Diversity is a 501(c)(3) registered charitable organization. Tax ID: 27-3943866.

With a global community of 8 billion people , we need a more equitable, flourishing world for all people and all ecosystems. As we look to write the script for our future, we focus on solutions that touch us all. Our goal is to help create the conditions for population growth to stop naturally and of its own accord, as soon as possible, while simultaneously improving the health and wellbeing of people today.

Two Crises, One Solution

8 Billion Opportunities

The world’s population reached 8 billion people in 2022. PMC used this opportunity to draw global attention to the social and environmental power of prioritizing health, education, and equity for all.

Population FAQs

Why work on population.

Population Media Center (PMC) understands that the population issue is nested within a much larger, much more profound problem: the overexploitation of the Earth by humanity, also known as ecological overshoot. We can see the symptoms of this overshoot everywhere we look, from climate change, to species extinctions, to ocean acidification, to any number of poorly performing environmental health indicators. It all relates back to collective overexploitation of Earth by humans.

The truth is that if humans were ethereal beings, who had no impact on the natural systems they are a part of, then there would be no problem with any number of people on the planet. Our concerns about population size and growth are rooted in our commitment to the long-term wellbeing of humanity, the health and integrity of Earth’s ecosystems, and the rights of other species to live freely and prosperously. We love people and planet and want the best possible life for everyone.

How We Work on Population

Using our theory-driven, progressively oriented entertainment programs, we focus our work to improve the rights and status of women and girls across several important human development domains. We specialize in improving reproductive health, reproductive autonomy, and women’s and girl’s social status and self-determination. This is the heart of our commitment to helping population growth stop. By realizing women’s and girl’s human rights.

Within that framework, we work to destigmatize voluntary family planning, correct misinformation about the safety and efficacy of modern contraception, dismantle patriarchal opposition to contraception, and educate parents about the many health and economic benefits of smaller families.

How many people are currently on the planet?

There are approximately 8 billion people on the planet. Globally, we add more than 66 million people every year. That is more than 183,000 people every day, more than 7,636 people per hour, and 127 people every minute. Each person needs — and deserves — sufficient land, water, shelter, food, and energy for a decent life.

What is the ideal world population?

At Population Media Center, we do not prescribe an ideal number for world population, but we do believe that it is a mathematical certainty that the planet and its resources cannot support continual population growth. As human populations grow, human demands for resources like water, land, trees, and energy also grow. Globally, over 183,000 people are added every day — each needs and deserves sufficient land, water, shelter, food, and energy for a decent life. We believe that if the full rights of women and girls are realized – population dynamics will change, thereby improving the health and prosperity of individuals, families, and the sustainability of the planet.

Does PMC align with the Sustainable Development Goals and other international development agreements?

Absolutely. The Sustainable Development Goals and other international development initiatives are critical to our thinking and our work. In particular, we advance:

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being
• SDG 4: Quality Education
• SDG 5: Gender Equality
• The Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, specifically its call to meet the unmet needs in good quality family planning services and in contraception, and to increase knowledge and use of family planning and contraceptive methods — as well as increasing awareness among men of their responsibility in family planning and contraceptive methods and their use.
• Family Planning 2030’s vision for change, including “Voluntary modern contraceptive use by everyone who wants it, achieved through individuals’ informed choice and agency.”
• The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) motion titled “Importance for the conservation of nature of removing barriers to rights-based voluntary family planning.”

Working on Population ethically

Horrific human rights abuses have been done in the name of “population.” At Population Media Center, we do not try to “limit” or “control” population. We work against oppressive practices like gender inequity, low rates of girls’ education, gender-based violence, and child marriage. After all, any practices that rob women of social power and self-determination raise global fertility. We also destigmatize voluntary family planning, correcting misinformation about modern contraception, dismantling patriarchal dominance, and educating parents about the health and economic benefits of smaller families.

Download the Overpopulation: Cause and Effect Infographic

Every action counts.

To write the script for the future of Earth, we are addressing harmful social norms and empowering choices for women and girls, resulting in healthier populations. Our transformative storytelling approach gives women the ability to make their own choices, including deciding if and when to have children. Storylines written by local creative teams focus on destigmatizing family planning, correcting misconceptions about the safety and efficiency of modern contraception, and educating parents about the many health and economic benefits of smaller families.

Your Support Means The World

From the blog, overpopulation: cause and effect.

Global Population in Relation to Global Sustainability

Equal Claims: Earth Cannot Fairly of Sustainably Support 8 Billion

Unsustainable Human Population Size: A Problem Nested Within Ecological Overshoot

PMC President Published: GLOBAL POPULATION ABOUT TO HIT 8 BILLION

Download our free whitepaper

Explore more pmc goals, global sustainability, women’s rights, high impact issues.

Public Health and Overpopulation: The United Nations Takes Action

With the world’s population rising faster than ever before, will our population growth outpace our resource reserves? How can the dangerous effects of overpopulation be managed without diminishing the major improvements in our quality of life that come about thanks to population growth?

The UN projects that over half of the Earth’s population growth in the next three decades will occur in the continent of Africa. This is due to the fact that, from 2010 to 2015, Africa’s population grew at a rate of 2.55 percent annually, with the continent still maintaining the highest pace of population growth among other continents. The UN predicts that, behind Africa, Asia will be the second greatest donor to future international population growth, with an expected addition of approximately one billion people by 2050. In contrast, within every European nation, fertility rates are currently below the population replacement level, which is approximately two children per woman. In most of Europe, fertility rates have remained beneath replacement level for decades. The global population grew fourfold in the past 100 years, so what impact could increased population growth have in the future? Will there be mass-migration? Overcrowding in already densely populated or resource-rich areas? Poor living conditions and sanitation similar to Industrial Revolution era slums?

The global population is currently rising at a steady rate. The number of humans existing on Earth has never been as high as it is now. In 1800, Earth had approximately 1 billion inhabitants, which rose to 2.3 billion in 1940, then 3.7 billion in 1970, and approximately 7.5 billion today. In the last five decades, Earth has experienced an extreme population boom. This phenomenon is known as overpopulation, where the condition in which the amount of humans currently existing on Earth outstrips future resource availability and earth’s carrying capacity. Throughout human history, birth and death rates have always counterbalanced each other, which ensured that Earth had a maintainable population growth level. However, in the 1960s, the global population increased at an unparalleled rate. This brought about a variety of apocalyptic predictions, most prominently, a revival of the Malthusian trap panic.

Paul R. Ehrlich’s 1968 novel, The Population Bomb , eerily echoes Thomas R. Malthus’s landmark 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population . Ehrlich’s novel proposes theories regarding potential outcomes for when agricultural growth does not keep pace with population growth. Ultimately his theories say that the world’s food supply will inevitably become inadequate for feeding the general population, whose numbers would continue to swell until famine, disease epidemics, war, or other calamities took root. These Malthusian predictions about out-of-control population growth have resulted in a variety of detrimental global impacts, particularly the emergence of extreme reproductive control measures, which have taken center stage on an international scale. Today, despite the fact that population scientists mostly agree that Malthus’s forecasts were overblown, the lingering prevalence of these fears have contributed to millions of forced sterilizations in Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Indonesia, Bangladesh and India, as well as China’s two-child policy . Overall, this has left many wondering whether extreme population growth projections are legitimate or merely groundless panic perpetuated by alarmists.

The Demographic Transition

In reality, rising birth rates and population booms are components of a four-step process called the demographic transition, which the Earth is currently undergoing. Most developed nations have already made this transition, but other countries are currently experiencing this change. In the 1700s, the entire world was undergoing the first stage of the demographic transition. During this time, the continent of Europe was in even poorer condition than the modern-day definition of a developing region, and was afflicted with inferior public health, sustenance, and medical facilities. Birth rates were higher; however, death rates were also higher. For this reason, population growth remained largely stagnant.

Statistically, in the 1700s, women birthed four to six children. However, on average, only two survived to adulthood. When the Industrial Revolution began in Great Britain in the mid-18th century, the Earth experienced the most significant shift in human lifestyles since the Agricultural Revolution. The Industrial Revolution altered every aspect of society, and fostered a greater sense of global interconnectedness. For example, many peasants became factory workers, manufactured products became widely available due to mass production, and countless scientific advancements improved existing methods of transportation, communication, and medicine.

Gradually, this economic development created a middle class and, after the work of union activists, ultimately raised the standard of living and health care for the impoverished labor demographic. Thus began the second transition stage. The increased availability of better foodstuffs, sanitation, and medicine directly contributed to lower death rates, causing a population explosion that doubled Great Britain’s population from 1750 to 1850. In the past, families tended to have more children because not all were expected to survive, but when child mortality rates decreased, the third transition stage was launched. This stage involves reduced conception rates and slowing population growth. Ultimately, a balance was established, with fewer deaths and births, creating a stable population growth rate and signifying the attainment of the fourth and final stage of the demographic transition.

Even as birth rates have decreased dramatically, Earth’s population is still rising at an alarming rate because the humans conceived during the population boom of the 1970s and 1980s are currently having more children; however, the current average number of children per family remains two and a half, while it was five during the late 1970s. As this generation ages and its fertility diminishes, the rate of population growth will likely continue to decrease in every nation. Most of the world’s countries have reached the fourth stage of the demographic transition. In approximately 80 years, developed countries will experience a reduction in fertility from over six children to fewer than three children. Malaysia and South Africa reached this point in 34 years, Bangladesh in 20 years,  and Iran in 10 years. If developing countries are afforded more support, they will reach this point much faster.

Overall, most scientists postulate that human population growth will eventually come to an end, and the UN predicts that Earth’s population will not exceed twelve billion. Some of the major causes of population growth are reduced infant mortality rates, increased lifespans, higher fertility rates, advances in science and technology, and improved access to proper medical care. With the UN’s continued assistance, concurrent with overpopulation, the development level of the global community will increase, and the number of people living in poverty will decrease. Nonetheless, an ever-expanding human population is an immense social and economic challenge that necessitates the alignment of different national interests, especially with regards to reproductive rights, resource availability, and environmental concerns.

The United Nations Takes Action

In 1969, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) was established in order to lead the UN in implementing population programs fundamentally based on the notion of family planning, or the “human right of individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families” without governmental interference or legislation. In 1994, at the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, Egypt, the designated objectives of the UNFPA were determined in greater depth. It was decided that the UNFPA would specifically focus on the gender and human rights elements of population issues; consequently, the UN Population Fund was granted the lead role in aiding nations in fulfilling the Conference’s Programme of Action.

The three most significant sections of the UN Population Fund mandate are “Reproductive Health,” “Gender Equality,” and “Population and Development.” The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) works to confront the interconnected global issues posed by population growth, which is primarily fueled by rising fertility rates, increased longevity, and greater international migration. The UN produces the official demographic approximations and predictions for every country and all regions of the world. The UNFPA specifically addresses global population by compiling data and statistics regarding migration, fertility, marriage, regional development, urbanization, world population projections, and national population policies.

In November 2012, the UNFPA declared family planning a global human right; however, approximately 12 percent of 15 to 49-year-old women internationally are not afforded access to family planning. This is considered an egregious modern-day human rights infringement. The UNFPA aids various UN bodies like the Commission on Population and Development, and endorses the implementation of the Programme of Action undertaken by the International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD) in 1994. The UNFPA has been successful in urging international cooperation on the issue of securing family planning as a human right, pushing the UN to hold three conferences concerning the issue of population, along with two special sessions of the General Assembly and a summit in 2019 .

The Way Forward

Ultimately, apocalyptic population growth fears are overblown, and as such, draconian population control regulations are unnecessary. We have witnessed progress on an international scale in this area, perhaps most notably with China revoking its infamous, longstanding one-child policy just seven years ago. However, a broader global focus on guaranteeing family planning as a human right remains essential. In the words of economist Julian Simon, “Whatever the rate of population growth is, historically it has been that the food supply increases at least as fast, if not faster.” Since Ehrlich’s initial fear-mongering regarding an overpopulation-​induced Armageddon, the planet’s population has more than doubled . However, annually, famine deaths have dropped by millions. Today’s famines are war-induced, not caused by natural resource consumption. As production rose, prices fell and calorie consumption increased, which decreased malnutrition worldwide. In Simon’s words, human ingenuity is the “ ultimate resource .” Therefore, the enactment of heavy-handed population-​control regulations is not only abhorrent, but is also irrational and unsupported by scientific evidence.

Sophia Scott

Sophia Scott is a staff writer for the Harvard International Review. She is interested in global health & health equity, along with the intersections between science and policy.

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The census shows the US needs to increase immigration — by a lot

The 2020 census shows that America isn’t full — and that it needs immigrants.

by Nicole Narea

The results of the 2020 census are a warning sign that America is on a course for slow population growth.

Economists broadly agree that population growth fuels economic growth in wealthy countries. But the recently released census figures show the US population was 331.5 million people , an increase of just 7.4 percent between 2010 and 2020 — the lowest rate since the 1930s. Projections suggest that, unless current trends change, those numbers could continue to diminish dramatically over the next two to three decades, with the population growing by just 78 million by 2060.

Some parts of the US are already beginning to experience some of the downsides of population slowdown or decline: Shrinking tax bases in rural areas have made it harder for government budgets to support essential services, such as infrastructure and public schools. As population growth slows, the pressure for cuts will likely grow. Meanwhile, the existing population will continue to age; by 2030, the Census Bureau estimates that one in five US residents will be of retirement age.

“Slow population growth, at least in the United States and a lot of other developed countries, will become a dire age dependency problem,” William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brooking Institution’s metropolitan policy program, said. “It puts a big strain on the rest of the population.”

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There are ways that policymakers can turn the situation around — the Biden administration has advocated for family-friendly policies that could make it easier for Americans to have more children. But that will not be enough to overcome a widening gap in the number of working-age adults that are able to support an aging population of baby boomers.

That leaves immigration, which has historically insulated the US from population decline and represents a kind of tap that the US can turn on and off. Over the next decade, it is set to become the primary driver of population growth for the first time in US history. The question now is exactly how much more immigration might be needed to accelerate population growth — and whether US policymakers can actually overcome their political differences on the issue to make it an effective tool.

“Immigration is one of the most feasible and rational ways to help respond to this challenge and we know that it will have a really significant impact,” Danilo Zak, a senior policy and advocacy associate for the National Immigration Forum, said.

Immigration is the easiest way to increase population growth

There are two main ways that the US could increase overall population growth: by encouraging people to have more children or by increasing immigration levels.

On their own, pro-natalist policies have historically failed to increase birthrates in the kinds of numbers that would be required to stave off stagnant population growth. Internationally, research has shown that child allowances have led to slight, short-lived bumps in birthrates. From 2007 to 2010, Spain had a child allowance that led to a temporary 3 percent increase in birthrates, but that was mostly because more people decided to have children earlier, rather than have more of them. After the allowance was revoked, the birthrate decreased 6 percent.

President Biden has proposed his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan , which would cap child care payments for parents earning up to 1.5 times the median income in their state, guarantee 12 weeks of paid parental leave, and maintain a new enhanced child tax credit for another four years — the kind of policies that might make it easier for families to have children. But even so, the US isn’t likely to see the kind of baby boom of the 1950s and ’60s, when the population was overall very young and a high percentage of women were in their childbearing years.

“Pro-family policies are important, but it’s proven pretty hard to get people to have more children when they don’t want to,” Zak said.

Immigration is a much more reliable driver of population growth. The average age of newly arriving immigrants is 31, which is more than seven years younger than the median American, meaning that they could help replace an aging workforce. They are also more entrepreneurial , which encourages economic dynamism, and more likely to work in essential industries , such as health care, transportation, construction, agriculture, and food processing.

Immigrants may also help stave off regional population declines. Immigrants are more likely to settle in areas where foreign-born populations already live, which are typically large metro areas that have lost population in recent years . Frey found in a 2019 report that, of the 91 large metro areas that gained population since the beginning of the decade, 15 would have actually lost population were it not for immigration, including New York, Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia. In another 11 large metro areas, immigration accounted for more than half of their population growth.

Refugees are also more likely to settle in less dense population centers where housing costs are lower, possibly reinvigorating the nearly 35 percent of rural counties in the US that have experienced significant population loss in recent decades.

Raising immigration levels wouldn’t necessarily require a major reimagining of the US immigration system, though that might offer more flexibility to reevaluate immigration levels periodically — it could be accomplished by just increasing the caps on existing forms of visas and green cards.

“Legal immigration is not something that’s been discussed very much,” Frey said. “I hope ... these census numbers will force people to think about being more serious about that.”

To really reap the benefits of increased immigration, though, the US would have to ensure that immigrants have the ability to integrate, which it has done successfully in the past. Immigrants in the US already have a higher employment rate and labor participation rate than native-born citizens, and immigrant children tend to perform at or above the educational level of comparable US-born children.

In recent years, states and cities have adopted a patchwork of policies to promote immigrant integration, including programs designed to provide English classes, schooling, and professional training; resources to start businesses; and access to citizenship. But Biden has reestablished an Obama-era Task Force on New Americans to expand the role of the federal government in such initiatives.

“We need to figure out how to give those young people the opportunities for success,” Frey said.

Some researchers say America needs to raise immigration levels by more than a third

It’s hard to estimate just how many more immigrants the US would need to accept annually in order to reverse its low population growth trend. In recent history, before President Donald Trump pursued policies curbing immigration and global travel largely came to a halt during the pandemic, the US typically admitted more than 1 million immigrants per year . But under that scenario, census projections indicate that the US would see less than half the population growth between 2020 and 2060 than it saw over the previous 40 years.

Some have argued that the US should try to set its immigration levels equal to its historical per capita rate of immigration, or to the per capita immigration rates of comparable countries, such as Australia or Canada. Others have argued that the US shouldn’t set immigration levels at all and instead let the market decide how many people are needed to fulfill the needs of employers.

But Zak said that all those methods seem somewhat arbitrary and unlikely to spur members of Congress to action. In his research with the National Immigration Forum’s president and CEO, Ali Noorani, he argues that the US should increase net immigration levels by at least 37 percent, or about 370,000 additional immigrants a year, to prevent a “demographic deficit” stemming from low population growth.

That number of immigrants, they estimate, would maintain the current “Old Age Dependency Ratio” (OADR), which is the number of people ages 16 and 64 per person over age 65 — basically, the number of workers available to support one retired person. It’s generally considered to be a good indicator of the demographic health of a country.

Today, the US’s ratio is 3.5, down from 5.4 in 2005 and 6.4 in 1965. By comparison, Japan has an OADR of 2.1 , the lowest worldwide, and is scrambling to shore up the viability of basic services for its aging population , such as public pensions, health care, and long-term care systems.

Even just maintaining the US’s current ratio may not be enough to avert the problems associated with an aging population. But it provides a preliminary benchmark for members of Congress, who, in an ideal world, would reevaluate immigration levels every few years. (The last time the US significantly increased legal immigration levels was with the Reagan-era Immigration Reform Act of 1986.)

“When we talk about maintaining the current OADR, it’s a conservative judgment, hoping to at least stop the bleeding,” Zak said. “We look at it as an initial target, rather than a cap. We don’t want things to get significantly worse.”

America needs all kinds of immigrants — not just workers

America doesn’t necessarily need to be picky with regard to the kinds of immigrants it seeks to welcome.

The US might need more workers to help fill growing labor shortages associated with demographic decline, as well as more immigrants who are sponsored by their family members to ensure that immigrant populations feel comfortable putting down roots in the US and having children. The children of immigrants will be a major driver of population growth in the long term.

But immigrants in general, including refugees and asylum seekers, carry the benefit of boosting population in rural areas that are feeling the brunt of the effects of demographic decline.

“When it comes to responding to demographic needs, that really needs to emphasize all different kinds of immigrants and the value they all bring to the country and to help us respond to the demographic challenges we face,” Zak said.

But the US could also take a more targeted approach by addressing existing labor shortages in industries such as home health care, hospitality, transportation, and construction.

The Labor Department has a list of occupations with shortages, making it easier for employers to bring immigrants to the US to fill those jobs, but it hasn’t been updated in many years. Currently, just physical therapists, nurses, and artists and scientists with “exceptional ability” qualify as shortage occupations.

“We need to do an even better job of figuring out where our labor shortages are going to be in the coming years,” Zak said.

The US can fill those shortages with a range of flexible visa programs. Lawmakers have already weighed creating a state-based visa that would allow states to select what kinds of immigrants they will accept based on their specific labor needs. Rep. John Curtis (R‐​UT), with the blessing of Utah’s Republican then-Gov. Gary Herbert, introduced a related bill in 2019 under which each state would get an average of 10,000 visas a year and would be able to determine how long they last and how often they could be renewed.

But the US could also look for policy solutions abroad: Wealthy countries such as Australia have adopted visas for immigrants who can fill national labor shortages, and Canada created its Provincial Nominee Program to encourage immigration to provinces that are experiencing labor shortages.

These kinds of increases in new, legal immigration can be used in tandem with programs to legalize the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already living in the US. Researchers from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania found that the provisions in Biden’s comprehensive immigration reform proposal granting legal status to undocumented immigrants would increase the size of the US population by more than 4 percent by 2050. That’s because it would decrease their likelihood of emigrating and increase their birthrates.

“There’s no doubt that we should be pursuing all of these ideas to help us respond to what’s really one of the most pressing challenges the country will face over the next several decades,” Zak said.

Clarification, May 6: Updated to clarify that the most recent census found the US population was 331.5 million people, representing a growth rate of 7.4 percent between 2010 and 2020.

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How to stop overpopulation? 5 possible solutions

Author | Eduardo Bravo

There is one death every second and two births, according to commonly accepted calculations to estimate global population growth. This progression confirms the UN’s estimates, establishing that, by 2050, the world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion persons. The current world population of 7.7 billion will become 9.7 billion , a trend that is expected to continue in subsequent years, meaning the World’s population will reach around 11 billion by 2100.

What is overpopulation?

Although these figures are the undeniable result of the drop in infant mortality, increased life expectancy and advances in fertility treatments , the fact that this population growth is so rapid could lead to serious problems. For example, the sustainability of the biotope may be surpassed which, in ecology, is a territory or living space whose environmental conditions are adequate for a certain community of living beings to develop there.

Therefore, rapid population growth may lead to resources being insufficient to meet the requirements of the world’s inhabitants.

Can overpopulation be stopped?

In April 2019, the Commission on Population and Development held its session in New York, and one of the assignments was to analyze how the Program of Action agreed in the International Conference on Population and Development held in El Cairo in 1994, had been applied.

According to this commission, population growth could still be controlled and the situation could be reversed and a balance could be achieved between population and available resources. To do so, Member States would need to be involved in the Sustainable Development Goals and the development of specific actions.

5 solutions to overpopulation

Some measures that could be taken to control population growth according to the United Nations and other public and private entities are:

Empowering women

Gender equality should be a central theme of social, economic or environmental interventions carried out by governments, companies and civil society. This is the only way to allow women to manage their lives in an autonomous manner and to decide for themselves whether they want to continue studying, enter the labor market, form a family or have children.

Universal access to quality education

Although the topics may not appear to be related, controlling the population involves enjoying a good education. It is a fact that keeping girls in school makes them less likely to have children at a young age and, therefore, reduces the number of maternal deaths.

Family planning programs

Good sex education programs and the implementation of family planning programs that enable access to contraception, reduces the number of unwanted children and, therefore, improves the lives of members of the family unit, allowing them to optimize their resources and avoid situations of poverty, hunger or disease.

Implementing more efficient production methods

Investing in RD&I to develop production methods that improve the efficiency of human activities , will enable the number of natural resources required to meet the needs of the population to be reduced.

Controlling migration flows

Establishing programs that prevent indigenous peoples from having to leave their homes for work reasons or as a means of survival or due to armed conflicts, enables a more sustainable use of resources, prevents resource depletion and improves the lives of communities, from the moment it prevents families from being separated, alienation and depopulation.

Images | 3005398 , Jozuadouglas , Bones64 , Nikolayhg , Driesel , Dimitrisvetsikas1969

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Two solutions to the challenges of population aging

Subscribe to global connection, milena nikolova milena nikolova nonresident fellow - economic studies @milenkanik.

May 2, 2016

Population aging—the increase of the share of older individuals in a society due to fertility declines and rising life expectancy—is an irreversible global trend with far-reaching economic and socio-political consequences. By 2050, the number of people aged 60 and older will more than double from its current levels, reaching around 2 billion. While Europe was the first global region to embark on a demographic transition, most of the expected growth in the number of older people by 2050 will come from developing countries . Population aging will likely lead to declining labor forces, lower fertility, and an increase in the age dependency ratio, the ratio of working-age to old-age individuals. To illustrate, while there were 10 workers for every person older than 64 in the world in 1970, the expected number in 2050 is only four ; it will even be less than two in some European countries.

Aging populations pose a challenge to the fiscal and macroeconomic stability of many societies through increased government spending on pension, healthcare, and social benefits programs for the elderly. This may hurt economic growth and overall quality of life if governments need to divert public spending from education and infrastructure investment to finance programs for the elderly. In addition, the recent economic crisis not only increased the demand for social protection but it also drew attention to population aging issues as many countries faced unsustainable public debts. In many nations, the already-high public spending limits the fiscal possibilities for increased aging-related spending in the long run. Therefore, pertinent and prompt policy solutions are necessary to ensure fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability as well as the health and well-being of citizens of all ages.

A Two-Part Solution Focused on Work

For monetary and non-monetary reasons, work is a pivotal element of one’s well-being. Recognizing this could be an essential part of the solution. Paid work contributes not only to material well-being but also to psychological well-being through social interactions and opportunities for personal and professional growth. And unpaid work, like volunteering, care work, and artistic work, can provide these same psychological benefits. Given these positive effects, encouraging and rewarding paid and unpaid work among the elderly could be a pivotal part of the solution to the aging-related fiscal and social challenges.

To enact such a strategy, policy-makers could consider: (i) a gradual retirement scheme allowing older individuals to lower their working hours yet remain in the workforce and pay taxes until a later age ; and (ii) furnishing options for and rewarding volunteering, care, and artistic activities among older society members.

Phased-in retirement, fiscal sustainability, and well-being

Encouraging older workers to remain longer in the labor force is often cited as the most viable solution to fiscal pressures and macroeconomic challenges related to population aging. Phased-in retirement entails a scheme whereby older workers could choose to work fewer hours yet remain longer in the labor force, including after they retire. And gradual retirement can be beneficial to societies, employers, and workers:

• First, phased-in retirement allows continuity in tax revenues and reduced expenditure on pensions, which holds particular importance for fiscal and macroeconomic stability;
• Second, older workers can be valuable to organizations and younger colleagues due to their knowledge and experience;
• And third, late-life work has positive health and perceived well-being consequences for older employees .

Promoting and rewarding volunteering, care, and artistic work among the elderly

In cases where individuals are unable to take advantage of phased-in retirement—due to health issues, family obligations, or skills mismatch—governments could promote and reward volunteering, care work, and artistic work among the elderly. Such unpaid activities improve the quality of the social fabric, help the well-being of those engaging in them, contribute to the economy, and reduce healthcare and welfare costs.

Volunteering is among the most important pro-social behaviors with many social and individual benefits. For example, about 25 percent of U.S. residents volunteer , providing 7.9 billion hours of service and contributing $184 billion of service . Additionally, late-life volunteers have lower rates of deteriorating mental and physical health and delayed mortality. Because of these benefits, national policies should seek to facilitate, reward, and adapt such opportunities for older individuals. And care work undertaken by older people—such as childcare, preparing meals, cleaning, and helping the elderly or disabled—should be recognized for its value and rewarded financially.

Further, providing incentives and encouraging the elderly to engage in creative work related to painting, music, or creative writing can also be beneficial to society and prevent social isolation. Governments can promote such activities by financing arts and crafts courses in social clubs or community centers for older participants.

In Conclusion

Providing opportunities for the elderly to remain in the workforce longer as well as engage in volunteering, care, and artistic activities can provide both social and economic benefits and relieve some of the fiscal pressures related to aging societies. However, work activities for the elderly do not automatically translate into social welfare gains. Policies should be arranged in a way that recognizes the dignity and autonomy of older individuals as opposed to providing them with meaningless or degrading tasks merely to keep them occupied. In addition to furnishing meaningful and rewarding opportunities, activities should be adapted to the physical and mental aptness of older individuals. And while paid and unpaid work activities are beneficial to society and the elderly, allowing for choice and autonomy is key.

It’s also important to recognize that implementing these programs and schemes may have short-term costs. Employers and older workers may face bargaining costs related to negotiating phased-in retirement options. Employers could also incur expenses related to restructuring or adapting tasks, while local governments may need to open community centers to accommodate volunteering and other activities for the elderly. Nonetheless, the long-run welfare benefits to society will likely exceed these short-run costs and improve fiscal and macroeconomic health.  

Global Economy and Development

Stuart M. Butler

May 23, 2024

Jack A. Smalligan

May 14, 2024

April 15, 2024

Can we solve the world’s ageing population crisis by 2035?

Key approaches and technologies can help an increasingly ageing population live independently. Image:  Danie Franco/Unsplash

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• An increasingly ageing population – especially in China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam – will have a major impact on the global economy by 2035.
• The effects will be especially acute in China, as 30% of its population will be aged 60 and over.
• Countries across the Sinosphere face dwindling pension funds, an unstable healthcare infrastructure and an ageing population seeking care at home.
• Technology can help bridge the gap between generations without compromising the benefits of ageing independently.

Few, if any, Chinese members of Generation Alpha (those born in or after 2010), will have those experiences of living near or with ageing family members. The next generation is being born at a time of falling fertility rates and a steadily rising ageing population that will not have enough caretakers and healthcare infrastructure to support it properly.

As these demographic shifts have a global impact, the effects will be acutely felt in China. Despite the end of the one-child policy in 2016, the ageing population will outnumber younger generations. Here we take a closer look at these unstoppable forces, the ripple effect on China’s economy as well as the global economy, and actions we can take now.

Unstoppable forces

To understand the impact of the growing, ageing population, consider the following factors that will be irreversible by the year 2035.

• Based on the United Nations 2022 World Population Prospects , 30% of the population in China, an estimated 400 million people, will be aged 60 and over.
• Declining birth rates will lead to a declining working age population, resulting in China’s growth being reduced by 1% every year from 2035-2050, according to the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, as reported by Nikkei .
• China’s pension funds, the primary source of income for retirees, will be depleted, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences .

When simple solutions are actually complex

These issues will not be easily resolved. Simple solutions such as incentivizing families to have more children is not working. Social influences, economic uncertainty and greater access to education has delayed marriage and children. In China, the childbearing age has been rising steadily over the past two decades. In 2000, it was 26 and as of 2022, it was 29, according to Pew Research . When those children grow up, they opt to live in cities and take knowledge worker roles, leaving crucial farm and factory jobs open or filled by an ageing workforce that can’t afford to retire due to small pensions.

Second, the talent shortage of medical professionals will be acute. In China, there are two doctors per thousand people. Comparatively, there are four doctors per thousand people in Western European countries and 2.7 in the US, according to the World Bank .

While predicting the effects of these challenges can be tricky, there are similar lessons for China and other countries to learn from what happened in Japan during the 1990s. A rising ageing population combined with a housing market bubble resulted in a decade of flat economic growth followed by deflation.

Have you read?

Here's how china is dealing with its rapidly ageing population, charted: how life expectancy is changing around the world, the world's oldest populations, what actions we can take now for the aging population.

To mitigate the impacts of aging populations on economies, we can be strategic in the use of technology by investing in solutions that allow us to look after the ageing population in the followings ways:

• Proactively monitor health and detect potential changes : This approach helps address issues before they become medical emergencies. According to research conducted by Bern University and published in Nature , using connected sensing devices to remotely monitor motion, activities, and moving speed is a promising way to help transition healthcare from a reactive to a proactive, precision medicine-oriented approach. Consider the fact that the amount spent on medical costs as a result of patient falls is $50 billion a year in the US alone, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). These costs can easily be offset through proactive monitoring. For example, medical sensors can provide the necessary insight for caregivers to take action quickly while ensuring the privacy of individuals. The use of wall-mounted sensors at a senior care facility in the US led to preventing an estimated 400 potential falls and faster response times, under 30 seconds, when a fall did occur.
• Ensure reliable access to telehealth: As of December 2022, only 62% of rural areas in China had internet access, according to Statista . Yet 37.5% of China’s older population live in rural areas, according to the World Bank. To support the elderly in these communities, there should be stable, low-cost internet access to provide telehealth services. The costs can be defrayed through the government and/or by providing basic internet service.
• Incentivize home improvements and technology investments: To support loved ones ageing with privacy and dignity, either independently or with loved ones.

Success will also require classic, practical methods as well. For instance, we must also establish the infrastructure that allows younger generations to properly care for the elderly. This includes:

• Encourage and support younger generations to look after the elderly: For example, support caregivers and motivate volunteers in the workplace by providing flexible work arrangements without fear of job loss or career setbacks.
• Introduce students to career opportunities in senior care earlier: Recruit new workers with elevated pay and additional incentives to fill these much-needed roles. Additionally, establish relevant disciplines and training in universities and vocational educational institutions.

The ageing population should not be solely viewed as a potential economic crisis. Rather, it’s a call to reinforce or create new infrastructures – economically, socially, and technologically – that respect and care for the generations that came before us. After all, they are the ones that have brought forth innovation and prosperity to the next generations. By taking the right steps today, China’s younger populations will be fortunate enough to share meaningful experiences with grandparents and older generations living nearby, independently, while carrying on the Chinese tradition.

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7.6: Population Growth and the Logistic Equation

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• Matthew Boelkins, David Austin & Steven Schlicker
• Grand Valley State University via ScholarWorks @Grand Valley State University

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Learning Objectives

In this section, we strive to understand the ideas generated by the following important questions:

• How can we use differential equations to realistically model the growth of a population?
• How can we assess the accuracy of our models?

The growth of the earth’s population is one of the pressing issues of our time. Will the population continue to grow? Or will it perhaps level off at some point, and if so, when? In this section, we will look at two ways in which we may use differential equations to help us address questions such as these. Before we begin, let’s consider again two important differential equations that we have seen in earlier work this chapter.

Preview Activity \(\PageIndex{1}\)

Recall that one model for population growth states that a population grows at a rate proportional to its size.

• We begin with the differential equation \[\dfrac{dP}{dt} = \dfrac{1}{2} P. \label{1}\] Sketch a slope field below as well as a few typical solutions on the axes provided.
• Find all equilibrium solutions of Equation \( \ref{1}\) and classify them as stable or unstable.
• If \(P(0)\) is positive, describe the long-term behavior of the solution to Equation \( \ref{1}\).
• Let’s now consider a modified differential equation given by \[\dfrac{dP}{dt} = \dfrac{1}{2} P(3 − P). \nonumber\] As before, sketch a slope field as well as a few typical solutions on the following axes provided.
• Find any equilibrium solutions and classify them as stable or unstable.
• If \(P(0)\) is positive, describe the long-term behavior of the solution.

The Earth’s Population

We will now begin studying the earth’s population. To get started, here are some data for the earth’s population in recent years that we will use in our investigations.

Activity \(\PageIndex{1}\): Growth Dynamics

Our first model will be based on the following assumption:

The rate of change of the population is proportional to the population.

On the face of it, this seems pretty reasonable. When there is a relatively small number of people, there will be fewer births and deaths so the rate of change will be small. When there is a larger number of people, there will be more births and deaths so we expect a larger rate of change. If \(P(t)\) is the population \(t\) years after the year 2000, we may express this assumption as \[\dfrac{dP}{ dt} = kP \label{eq2}\]

where \(k\) is a constant of proportionality.

• Use the data in the table to estimate the derivative \(P'(0)\) using a central difference. Assume that \(t = 0\) corresponds to the year 2000.
• What is the population \(P(0)\)?
• Use these two facts to estimate the constant of proportionality \(k \)in the differential equation.
• Now that we know the value of \(k\), we have the initial value problem of Equation \( \ref{eq2}\) with \(P(0) = 6.084\). Find the solution to this initial value problem.
• What does your solution predict for the population in the year 2010? Is this close to the actual population given in the table?
• When does your solution predict that the population will reach 12 billion?
• What does your solution predict for the population in the year 2500?
• Do you think this is a reasonable model for the earth’s population? Why or why not? Explain your thinking using a couple of complete sentences.

Our work in Activity \(\PageIndex{1}\) shows that that the exponential model is fairly accurate for years relatively close to 2000. However, if we go too far into the future, the model predicts increasingly large rates of change, which causes the population to grow arbitrarily large. This does not make much sense since it is unrealistic to expect that the earth would be able to support such a large population.

The constant \(k\) in the differential equation has an important interpretation. Let’s rewrite the differential equation

\(\dfrac{dP}{dt} = kP\)

by solving for \(k\), so that we have

\(k = \dfrac{\dfrac{dP}{dt}}{ P}.\)

Viewed in this light, \(k\) is the ratio of the rate of change to the population; in other words, it is the contribution to the rate of change from a single person. We call this the per capita growth rate .

In the exponential model we introduced in Activity \(\PageIndex{1}\), the per capita growth rate is constant. In particular, we are assuming that when the population is large, the per capita growth rate is the same as when the population is small. It is natural to think that the per capita growth rate should decrease when the population becomes large, since there will not be enough resources to support so many people. In other words, we expect that a more realistic model would hold if we assume that the per capita growth rate depends on the population P. In the previous activity, we computed the per capita growth rate in a single year by computing \(k\), the quotient of \(\frac{dP}{dt}\) and \(P\) (which we did for \(t = 0\)). If we return data and compute the per capita growth rate over a range of years, we generate the data shown in Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\), which shows how the per capita growth rate is a function of the population, \(P\).

Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\): A plot of per capita growth rate vs. population P.

From the data, we see that the per capita growth rate appears to decrease as the population increases. In fact, the points seem to lie very close to a line, which is shown at two different scales in Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\).

Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\): The line that approximates per capita growth as a function of population, P.

Looking at this line carefully, we can find its equation to be

\(\dfrac{\dfrac{dP}{dt}}{ P} = 0.025 − 0.002P.\)

If we multiply both sides by \(P\), we arrive at the differential equation

\[\dfrac{dP}{ dt} = P(0.025 − 0.002P). \label{log}\]

Graphing the dependence of \(\frac{dP}{dt}\) on the population \(P\), we see that this differential equation demonstrates a quadratic relationship between \(\frac{dP}{dt}\) and \(P\), as shown in Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\).

Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\): A plot of \(\frac{dP}{dt}\) vs. \(P\) for Equation \(\ref{log}\).

Equation \( \ref{log}\) is an example of the logistic equation , and is the second model for population growth that we will consider. We have reason to believe that it will be more realistic since the per capita growth rate is a decreasing function of the population.

Indeed, the graph in Figure \(\PageIndex{3}\) shows that there are two equilibrium solutions, \(P = 0\), which is unstable, and \(P = 12.5\), which is a stable equilibrium. The graph shows that any solution with \(P(0) > 0\) will eventually stabilize around 12.5. In other words, our model predicts the world’s population will eventually stabilize around 12.5 billion.

A prediction for the long-term behavior of the population is a valuable conclusion to draw from our differential equation. We would, however, like to answer some quantitative questions. For instance, how long will it take to reach a population of 10 billion? To determine this, we need to find an explicit solution of the equation. Solving the logistic differential equation Since we would like to apply the logistic model in more general situations, we state the logistic equation in its more general form,

\[\dfrac{dP}{ dt} = kP(N − P). \label{7.2} \]

The equilibrium solutions here are when \(P = 0\) and \(1 − \frac{P}{N} = 0\), which shows that \(P = N\). The equilibrium at \(P = N\) is called the carrying capacity of the population for it represents the stable population that can be sustained by the environment.

We now solve the logistic Equation \( \ref{7.2}\), which is separable, so we separate the variables

\(\dfrac{1}{P(N − P)} \dfrac{ dP}{ dt} = k, \)

and integrate to find that

\( \int \dfrac{1}{P(N − P)} dP = \int k dt, \)

To find the antiderivative on the left, we use the partial fraction decomposition

\(\dfrac{1}{P(N − P)} = \dfrac{1}{ N} \left[ \dfrac{ 1}{ P} + \dfrac{1}{ N − P} \right] .\)

Now we are ready to integrate, with

\( \int \dfrac{1}{ N} \left[ \dfrac{1}{ P} + \dfrac{1}{ N − P} \right] dP = \int k dt.\)

On the left, observe that \(N\) is constant, so we can remove the factor of \(\frac{1}{N}\) and antidifferentiate to find that

\(\dfrac{1}{ N} (\ln |P| − \ln |N − P|) = kt + C. \)

Multiplying both sides of this last equation by \(N\) and using an important rule of logarithms, we next find that

\( \ln \left| \dfrac{P}{ N − P} \right | = kNt + C. \)

From the definition of the logarithm, replacing \(e^C\) with \(C\), and letting \(C\) absorb the absolute value signs, we now know that

\( \dfrac{P}{N − P} = Ce^{k N t}.\)

At this point, all that remains is to determine \(C\) and solve algebraically for \(P\).

If the initial population is \(P(0) = P_0\), then it follows that

\(C = \dfrac{P_0}{ N−P_0}\)

\(\dfrac{P}{N − P} = \dfrac{P_0}{ N − P_0} e^{ k N t} .\)

We will solve this most recent equation for \(P\) by multiplying both sides by \((N − P)(N − P_0)\) to obtain

\( \begin{align} P(N − P_0) & = P_0(N − P)e^{k N t} \\ & = P_0Ne^{k N t} − P_0Pe^{k N t}. \end{align}\)

Swapping the left and right sides, expanding, and factoring, it follows that

\(\begin{align} P_0Ne^{k N t} & = P(N − P_0) + P_0Pe^{k N t} \\ & = P(N − P_0 + P_0e^{ k N t}). \end{align}\)

Dividing to solve for \(P\), we see that

\(P = \dfrac{P_0Ne^{k N t}}{ N − P_0 + P_0e^{k N t}}.\)

Finally, we choose to multiply the numerator and denominator by \(\frac{1}{P_0} e^{−k N t}\) to obtain

\[P(t) = \dfrac{N}{ \left( \dfrac{N−P_0}{P_0} \right) e^{−k N t} + 1} . \label{7.3}\]

While that was a lot of algebra, notice the result: we have found an explicit solution to the initial value problem

\(\dfrac{dP}{dt} = kP(N − P),\ P(0)=P_{0},\)

with \(P(0) = P_0\) and that solution is Equation \( \ref{7.3}\).

For the logistic equation describing the earth’s population that we worked with earlier in this section, we have

\(k = 0.002\), \(N = 12.5\), and \(P_0 = 6.084\).

This gives the solution

\[P(t) = \dfrac{12.5}{ 1.0546e^{−0.025t} + 1}, \label{earth}\]

whose graph is shown in Figure \(\PageIndex{4}\) Notice that the graph shows the population leveling off at 12.5 billion, as we expected, and that the population will be around 10 billion in the year 2050. These results, which we have found using a relatively simple mathematical model, agree fairly well with predictions made using a much more sophisticated model developed by the United Nations.

Figure \(\PageIndex{4}\): The solution to the logistic equation modeling the earth’s population (Equation \ref{earth}).

The logistic equation is useful in other situations, too, as it is good for modeling any situation in which limited growth is possible. For instance, it could model the spread of a flu virus through a population contained on a cruise ship, the rate at which a rumor spreads within a small town, or the behavior of an animal population on an island. Again, it is important to realize that through our work in this section, we have completely solved the logistic equation, regardless of the values of the constants \(N\), \(k\), and \(P_0\).

Anytime we encounter a logistic equation, we can apply the formula we found in Equation \ref{7.3}.

Activity \(\PageIndex{2}\): Predicting Earth's Population

Consider the logistic equation

\(\dfrac{dP}{dt} = kP(N − P) \nonumber\)

with the graph of \(\frac{dP}{dt}\) vs. \(P\) shown below.

• At what value of \(P\) is the rate of change greatest?
• Consider the model for the earth’s population that we created. At what value of \(P\) is the rate of change greatest? How does that compare to the population in recent years?
• According to the model we developed, what will the population be in the year 2100?
• According to the model we developed, when will the population reach 9 billion?
• Now consider the general solution to the general logistic initial value problem that we found, given by Equation \( \ref{7.3}\). Verify algebraically that \(P(0) = P_0\) and that \(\lim_{t→\infty} P(t) = N.\)

In this section, we encountered the following important ideas:

• If we assume that the rate of growth of a population is proportional to the population, we are led to a model in which the population grows without bound and at a rate that grows without bound.
• By assuming that the per capita growth rate decreases as the population grows, we are led to the logistic model of population growth, which predicts that the population will eventually stabilize at the carrying capacity.

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Global Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, Solutions & Perspectives

The rapid aging of populations around the world presents an unprecedented set of challenges: shifting disease burden, increased expenditure on health and long-term care, labor-force shortages, dissaving, and potential problems with old-age income security. We view longer life spans, particularly longer healthy life spans, as an enormous gain for human welfare. The challenges come from the fact that our current institutional and social arrangements are unsuited for aging populations and shifting demographics; our proposed solution is therefore to change our institutions and social arrangements. The first section of this essay provides a statistical overview of global population aging and its contributing factors. The second section outlines some of the major challenges associated with widespread population aging. Finally, the third section of the essay describes various responses to these challenges, both current and prospective, facing individuals, businesses, institutions, and governments.

DAVID E. BLOOM, a Fellow of the American Academy since 2005, is the Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. His many publications include recent articles in such journals as  JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association, Finance & Development , and  Science .

DAVID CANNING is the Richard Saltonstall Professor of Population Sciences and Professor of Economics and International Health in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. His many publications include recent articles in such journals as  Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Applied Statistics , and  Journal of International Development .

ALYSSA LUBET is a Research Assistant in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Her research interests include economics, women's health and reproductive health, and population studies.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented transition in global demography. The world’s population is aging rapidly, and older adults compose a larger proportion of the world’s population than ever before–a share that will only increase over the next century. By 2050, the percentage of the United States’ population that is aged sixty years and older will grow from the current figure of about 20 percent to 27 percent. The global number of centenarians worldwide–those aged one hundred years and older–is expected to more than double by 2030, with projections of nearly 3.4 million by 2050. 1  Three major factors are driving this transition: decreasing fertility, increasing longevity, and the aging of large population cohorts.

Falling fertility rates are the main determinant of population aging. Low fertility rates lead to smaller youth cohorts, which create an imbalance in the age structure: older age groups become larger than their younger counterparts. Thanks to accessible and effective birth control, increased child survival, and cultural changes, birth rates have dropped dramatically in the past century. In 1950, the global total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children per woman, was about 5; by 2010, that number had dropped by 50 percent. By 2050, the TFR will have dropped even further to about 2.25 children per woman. In many countries, fertility rates are now well below the long-term replacement rate of just over two children per woman.

Changes in fertility rate are accompanied by increased longevity, another driver of population aging. Averaging for sex and location, a child born in 1950 had a life expectancy of only forty-seven years, while an adult who had survived to the age of sixty could expect to live another fourteen years. In contrast, by 2010, life expectancy at birth had increased to seventy years, and continued life expectancy for those aged sixty increased to twenty years. In a number of populations, recent increases in longevity have been attributed to falling rates of tobacco consumption, as well as improvements in medical technologies. 2 By 2050, life expectancy at birth is expected to have risen to nearly seventy-seven years, while life expectancy at age sixty will increase to twenty-two-and-a-half years.

Meanwhile, large population cohorts, such as the United States’ postwar baby boom generation, are moving through middle age and older adulthood. This movement can be seen in Figure 1, which depicts the population of more-developed countries (MDCs) broken down by sex and age group. Males are on the left side of the pyramid and females are on the right. The shifting shape of the population pyramid between the years 2010 and 2050 illustrates the baby boom cohort’s movement from middle into older ages.

These global phenomena–decreasing fertility, increasing longevity, and the aging of large birth cohorts–combine to drive up the percentage of older adults as a share of the global population. In 1950, only 8 percent of the world’s population was sixty years or older; this number increased to 11 percent by 2010. Over the next several decades, this proportion is expected to rise dramatically, reaching a projected 21.2 percent by 2050. The change is even more dramatic for the share of the world’s population aged eighty years or older. This proportion climbed from just 0.6 percent in 1950 to 1.6 percent in 2010, and is projected to make up 4.1 percent of the global population by 2050.

While the population of virtually every country is aging rapidly, there remains considerable variation at both regional and country levels, with strong correlations to differing income levels. MDCs trend toward low fertility and high longevity, and less-developed countries (LDCs) trend toward the opposite. At the low end of the fertility range are the MDCs found in Eu - rope and East Asia, with Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Singapore tied for the lowest TFR of 1.28 children per woman. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa has a regional TFR of just over 5, while also hosting the highest country-level fertility rates: Somalia (6.61), Mali (6.86), and Niger (7.58). As for longevity, Japan is in the lead with a current life expectancy at birth of eighty-three-and-a-half years, in stark contrast to Sierra Leone, where life expectancy at birth is slightly over forty-five years.

Tables 1 and 2 depict the percent of the elderly population in the world’s most and least population-aged countries, now (2010) and projected in the future (2050). The 2050 figures are based on a medium fertility projection, which assumes that fertility in all major areas will stabilize at replacement level (at slightly over two children per woman). This comparison reveals stark differences in age profiles between countries. For example, currently 23 percent of Germany’s population is aged sixty-five years and older, while the corresponding figure for Qatar (with its large expatriate worker population) is only 1 percent. These rankings are projected to shift considerably in the next half century, with only Japan holding over in the top five most population-aged nations. . . .

Access the full volume here . 

• 1 Unless otherwise stated, population figures are drawn from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014), http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm.
• 2 Colin D. Mathers, Gretchen A. Stevens, Ties Boerma, Richard A. White, and Martin I. Tobias, “Causes of International Increases in Older Age Life Expectancy,” The Lancet 6736 (14) (2014).

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How do you calculate population growth?

Learn about Euler's number here or here .

For example, if we have a population of zebras in 1990 that had 100 individuals, we know the population is growing at a rate of 5%, and we want to know what the population is in the year 2020, we would do the following to solve:

#=100*e^(.05*30yrs) # **note that this is .05 multiplied by 30

We multiply .05 by 30 years. Then we raise e by that result (1.5). Our last step is to then multiply 4.48 by our original population, which is 100 individuals.

Our answer is 448 individuals. So, from a population of 100 individuals in 1990, if that population is growing at a rate of 5%, we will have 448 individuals in the year 2020.

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India Population (LIVE)

• The current population of India is 1,440,767,737 as of Wednesday, June 5, 2024, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data 1 .
• India 2023 population is estimated at 1,428,627,663 people at mid year.
• India population is equivalent to 17.76% of the total world population .
• India ranks number 1 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population .
• The population density in India is 481 per Km 2 (1,244 people per mi 2 ).
• The total land area is 2,973,190 Km2 (1,147,955 sq. miles)
• 36.3 % of the population is urban (518,239,122 people in 2023)
• The median age in India is 28.2 years .

Population of India (2024 and historical)

India population forecast, india demographics, main cities by population in india.

(includes boroughs, districts, urban agglomerations, etc.)

• Demographics of India
• Median Age (Historical Chart)
• Total Fertility Rate (Historical Chart)
• Urban vs. Rural Population (Historical Chart)
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India
• Asia Population
• World Population
• World Population by Country

The India Population (Live) counter shows a continuously updated estimate of the current population of India delivered by Worldometer's RTS algorithm , which processes data collected from the United Nations Population Division.

The Population of India (1950 - 2023) chart plots the total population count as of July 1 of each year, from 1950 to 2023.

Definitions

Year : as of July 1 of the year indicated.

Population : Overall total population (both sexes and all ages) in the country as of July 1 of the year indicated, as estimated by the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision . For forecasted years, the U.N. medium-fertility variant is used.

Yearly % Change : For 2023: percentage change in total population over the last year (from July 1, 2022 to June 30 2023). For all other years: latest year annual percentage change equivalent assuming homogeneous change in the preceding five year period, calculated through reverse compounding.

Yearly Change : For 2023: absolute change in total population (increase or decrease in number of people) over the last year (from July 1, 2022 to June 30 2023). For all other years: average annual numerical change over the preceding five year period.

Migrants (net) : The average annual number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants over the preceding five year period (running from July 1 to June 30 of the initial and final years), or subsequent five year period (for 2016 data). A negative number means that there are more emigrants than immigrants.

Median Age : age that divides the population into two numerically equal groups: half of the people are older than the median age indicated and half are younger. This parameter provides an indication of age distribution.

Fertility Rate : (Total Fertility Rate, or TFR), it is expressed as children per woman. It is calculated as the average number of children an average woman will have during her reproductive period (15 to 49 years old) based on the current fertility rates of every age group in the country, and assuming she is not subject to mortality.

Density (P/Km²) : (Population Density) Population per square Kilometer (Km²).

Urban Pop % : Urban population as a percentage of total population.

Urban Population : Population living in areas classified as urban according to the criteria used by each country.

Country's Share of World Pop : Total population in the country as a percentage of total World Population as of July 1 of the year indicated.

World Population : Total World Population as of July 1 of the year indicated.

Global Rank : Position held by India in the list of all countries worldwide ranked by population (from the highest population to the lowest population) as of July 1 of the year indicated.