the latest jobs report

U.S. job market remains hot, adds 272,000 positions in May

The U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May, bringing good news for workers but potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's ongoing crusade against inflation.

The data, published Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, offers a counterpoint to some employment market indicators that had shown signs of slowing as recently as this week. Economists had expected the economy to add 190,000 jobs , according to a Dow Jones survey.

“A long feared substantial slowdown in hiring has yet to show up,” Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick said in a statement Friday.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% but remains historically low, extending a 30-month streak of unemployment at or below that level. And in another bright spot for workers, average hourly earnings jumped 4.1% in May from the year before, up from a 3.9% annual rate in April.

Friday's data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off cutting interest rates when it meets next week.

"Fed members and investors had clearly been hoping for a softer report, which would have raised confidence in the appropriateness of a July or September rate cut," ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollak said in a statement Friday. "Instead, economic data has been mixed."

The central bank's next decision on rates is due Wednesday afternoon, hours after a fresh Consumer Price Index offers another inflation snapshot.

Despite last month's hiring gains, job growth overall this year has cooled. In the run-up to Friday's report, many economists said the steady slowdown looked more like normalization toward pre-pandemic hiring trends than a sign of an imminent recession.

On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP found private employers added just 152,000 roles in May , far fewer than expected. And earlier this week, the BLS reported that the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings had climbed back to the level seen just before the outbreak of the Covid pandemic.

But the change in that figure is primarily a result of firms deciding they don't need to fill as many roles, and not because of a surge in unemployment, analysts say.

"Businesses are just not laying off [many] workers," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics financial services group, said Thursday, ahead of the report. "There's still underlying job growth," he said, even though many companies are cutting back on hiring, hours and temporary work.

The U.S. economy overall is still on firm footing. Fed officials continue to say uncertainty remains about how much longer the rapid price growth that has bedeviled consumers for the last couple years will continue. Since peaking above 9% in summer 2022, inflation is much slower but has largely hovered above 3% all year — higher than the Fed's 2% target.

A slower pace of job growth, economists say, should cool inflation further, as employers ease up on raising pay to attract workers, who in turn should rein in their spending, leading businesses to pull back their price hikes — a virtuous circle.

Already, fewer people who are currently employed are seeking opportunities elsewhere. The BLS also reported this week that the rate of workers quitting has held steady for six months, even as it's down significantly from its post-pandemic high.

It’s a sign that the “great resignation,” which saw workers taking up new roles in droves — usually for higher pay as businesses reopened during the pandemic — is mostly behind us, replaced instead by the " g reat s tay."

Robust hiring for lower-paid workers

Friday's report showed job gains in a range of sectors, led by health care, government, leisure and hospitality and a category of "professional" services that includes many tech roles.

Vanguard, a financial services group, has found hiring for middle- and high-income workers h as slowed , while lower-paid workers continue to be hired at a healthy clip. Lower-paid workers are now making more than they were before the pandemic, even though inflation has eaten into their spending power. Hiring forums show McDonald's now pays its hourly employees as much as $13 an hour, compared with as little as $10 pre-pandemic.

“We’re certainly seeing, within firms, that the hire rate among more costly or higher-paid workers has been going down,” said Fiona Grieg, global head of investor research and policy at Vanguard.

Some consolation for higher-paid workers may be found in LinkedIn data, which shows that although hiring rates are still down 10% year on year, they're better than the trends seen for much of 2023.

Applicant ranks swell

But stabilization does not mean strength. LinkedIn told NBC News the number of job applications per applicant rose 14% from November 2023 to March of this year. Over the same period, 25% more U.S. LinkedIn users marked themselves as "open to work" on the platform.

“If you’re a high-wage worker right now and you’re sitting on the sidelines, the job search may take some time,” Vanguard's Grieg said.

Tre Gripper, 32, posted to X this week to say that since being laid off in June 2023, he had unsuccessfully applied to approximately 463 roles. 

"It’s demoralizing," Gripper told NBC News. "I’ve worked really hard in my field and to keep not getting anything."

The Houston resident has supported himself in part thanks to a generous transition bonus and severance package he received from his previous employer. But those resources have since been depleted, Gripper said, and now he and his husband are planning to move to Seattle for both of their careers.

And since his X post, which now links to his LinkedIn profile, went viral — racking up more than 12 million views — he's seen a surge in opportunities.

His takeaway: "Unless someone is pushing you through, recruiters aren’t even seeing your application."

Rob Wile is a breaking business news reporter for NBC News Digital.

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Another burst of hiring shows off the resilience of the US job market

FILE - A construction worker looks up at the I-10 freeway, which was closed by fire on Nov. 19, 2023, in Los Angeles. On Friday, March 8, 2024, the U.S. government issues its February jobs report. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo, File)

FILE - An employee straightens displays at a Kohl’s store in Clifton, N.J., Jan. 26, 2024. On Friday, March 8, 2024, the U.S. government issues its February jobs report. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

Job seeker Johannes Oveida looks over a brochure at a job fair at Lehigh Carbon Community College in Allentown, Pa., on Thursday, March 7, 2024. On Friday, March 8, 2024, the U.S. government issues its February jobs report. (AP Photo/Michael Rubinkam)

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WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers delivered another healthy month of hiring in February, adding a surprising 275,000 jobs and again showcasing the U.S. economy’s resilience in the face of high interest rates.

Last month’s job growth marked an increase from a revised gain of 229,000 jobs in January. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up two-tenths of a point in February to 3.9%. Though that was the highest rate in two years, it is still low by historic standards. And it marked the 25th straight month in which joblessness has remained below 4% — the longest such streak since the 1960s.

Yet despite sharply lower inflation , a healthy job market and a record-high stock market , many Americans say they are unhappy with the state of the economy — a sentiment that is sure to weigh on President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election. Many voters blame Biden for the surge in consumer prices that began in 2021. Though inflationary pressures have significantly eased, average prices remain about 17% above where they stood three years ago.

Friday’s report gave the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve some encouraging news: Average hourly wages rose just 0.1% from January, the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, and 4.3% from a year earlier, less than expected. Average pay growth has been exceeding inflation for more than year, but when it rises too fast it can feed inflation.

The latest figures reflected the job market’s sustained ability to withstand the 11 rate hikes the Fed imposed in its drive against inflation, which made borrowing much costlier for households and businesses. Employers have continued to hire briskly to meet steady demand from consumers across the economy.

The February figures will likely make Fed officials more comfortable about cutting rates sometime in the coming months. With December and January job gains revised sharply down, wage growth easing and the unemployment rate up, the Fed’s policymakers aren’t likely to worry about an overheating economy. Most economists and Wall Street traders expect the first rate cut to come in June. The Fed stopped raising rates in July and has signaled that it envisions three rate cuts this year.

The unemployment rate rose last month in part because more people began looking for a job and didn’t immediately find one. The Fed could be reassured by the influx of job seekers, which typically makes it easier for businesses to fill jobs without having to significantly raise pay.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, said he was impressed by the breadth of hiring last month: Among industries, health care companies added 67,000 jobs, government at all levels 52,000, restaurants and bars 42,000, construction companies 23,000 and retailers 19,000.

When the Fed began aggressively raising rates in March 2022 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades, a painful recession was widely predicted, with waves of layoffs and high unemployment. The Fed boosted its benchmark rate to the highest level in more than two decades.

Inflation has eased, more or less steadily, in response: Consumer prices in January were up just 3.1% from a year earlier — way down from a year-over-year peak of 9.1% in 2022 and edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Unemployment is still low. And no recession is in sight.

The combination of easing inflation and sturdy hiring is raising hopes that the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing” by taming inflation without causing a recession — a scenario consistent with Friday’s numbers.

Faucher said he expects average monthly job growth to decelerate to around 150,000 and for the unemployment rate to rise to slightly above 4% by year’s end. A cooling labor market, he suggested, will allow the Fed to start cutting rates this spring.

Even though the Labor Department’s revisions shaved 167,000 jobs from its previous estimate of December and January hiring, acting Labor Secretary Julie Su noted Friday that even counting those downward revisions, job growth has averaged an impressive 265,000 over the past three months.

In the meantime, many employers are still contending with labor shortages. Among them is Nicola Davies, who owns the small Tranquil Home cleaning company in San Diego and is struggling to find reliable help. Six months ago, Davies resorted to offering bonuses to employees who basically do the minimum: Show up on time and don’t provoke complaints from customers.

“That’s how horrible the climate is, ” she said.

If she has to raise wages again, she said, she might have to increase the rates she charges her cleaning customers.

At a job fair this week in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Katie Sanders, a human resources specialist, said she was seeking some machinists — “a dying breed,’’ she said — to work at Lehigh Heavy Forge, which occupies part of a former Bethlehem Steel plant and forges steel pieces for the Navy and private industries.

Sanders said it was difficult to find workers with the experience to replace those who are retiring.

“But all it takes is one,” she said, hopefully.

Hana Haseman, the human resources manager for Active Learning Centers, a chain of childcare facilities in the Allentown region, needs to fill about 10 full-time openings. The company increased wages a few years ago to as high as $20 an hour. But Haseman said raising pay is only part of the challenge.

“We have to do things internally to invest in our staff members and make them feel appreciated and let them know the work they’re doing is meaningful,” she said. “With Burger King or a warehouse or wherever paying very highly, and with the cost of our program for students and parents, being competitive is difficult.”

The tight job market means more workers have managed to find jobs that they like and that are well-suited to their skills. Some economists say that trend, along with business investment in automation, is helping fuel a surge in productivity that allows companies to raise pay and reap bigger profits without necessarily raising prices.

Consider Elizabeth Toenyes, who medically retired as an Army captain in 2022 after undergoing hip and shoulder surgeries and receiving a diagnosis of PTSD. A former public affairs officer, Toenyes, 29, began seeking a job in public relations or a related field.

“It was a great time to be looking for jobs,’’ she said. “The culture of employers had begun shifting’’ as younger workers who replaced retiring baby boomers demanded more flexible working conditions, including the option to work from home.

Toenyes landed a job she loves as an editorial strategist with the staffing firm Aquent. She works from home with her service dog.

The comfortable setting makes her more productive, she said, as do artificial intelligence tools that help her write faster.

“Sometimes I can pound out a six-page blog on AI and get it done in one or two hours,’’ she said, thereby freeing up time to take a walk.

AP Writers Michael Rubinkam in Allentown, Pennsylvania; Anne D’Innocenzio in New York; and Christopher Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.

Today's jobs report shows economy added booming 303K jobs in March, unemployment at 3.8%

Can anything slow down the U.S. labor market?

Hiring accelerated in March as employers added a booming 303,000 jobs despite high interest rates , stubborn inflation and growing household financial stress.

The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, the Labor Department said Friday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated that 213,000 jobs were added last month.

Payroll gains for January and February were revised up by a total 22,000, portraying an even more robust picture of job growth early this year. January's were bumped up from 229,000 to 256,000 while February's were downgraded modestly, from 275,000 to 270,000.

The blockbuster report bolsters the view that the economy is on track for a "soft landing," a scenario in which the Federal Reserve wrestles down inflation without triggering a recession. But the resilient labor market could prompt the Fed to push interest rate cuts to later in the year to ensure inflation is subdued before acting, economists say.

Are wages going up faster than inflation?

Average hourly pay rose 12 cents to $34.69, pushing down the yearly increase from 4.3% to 4.1%.  

Since hitting a high of 5.9% in March 2022, average wage growth has slowed as labor shortages have eased, but it’s still above the 3.5% pace Federal Reserve officials say would align with their 2% inflation goal.

Many Americans, meanwhile, are benefitting because typical pay increases have  topped inflation the past year, giving them more purchasing power.

What will interest rates do in 2024?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said recently that officials are no longer worried that strong job growth will overheat the economy and reignite a sharp run-up in prices. It’s more significant that pay increases, which could fuel inflation, continued to moderate last month.

Still, the sizzling report may assure Fed officials that the economy is at little risk of weakening significantly or slipping into recession, delaying the first rate cut past the June timeframe that markets are anticipating.

“The blockbuster 303,000 nonfarm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until the second half of this year,” economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients.

Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked its key short-term interest rate from near zero to a 23 year-high of 5.25% to 5.5%, but it's held it steady since last July as inflation has eased. Officials have forecast three rate cuts this year, goosing the stock market, but that timetable could shift if inflation softens more gradually or the economy and job market stay hot.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure ticked up to 2.5% in February, leaving it above its 2% goal but well below the four-decade high of 7% it hit in mid-2022.

What is the stock market doing today?

Investors appeared to warm to the combination of big job gains and moderating wage growth that could keep the Fed's rough forecast of three rate cuts this year intact. In early trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 82 points to 38,679 and the S&P 500 index climbed 0.54% to 5,174.

Which sectors added the most jobs?

Last month, health care and social assistance led the job gains with 81,000. The public sector, mostly local governments, added 71,000; construction, 39,000; and leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants and bars, 49,000.

Ashworth said the payroll gains “still look a little lopsided,” with government, health care and leisure and hospitality doing the heavy lifting. Those sectors also drove job growth late last year, sparking forecasts of a labor market that would downshift dramatically in coming months.

In March, job creation in leisure and hospitality and construction could have been spurred by relatively mild weather, That could mean less hiring in those industries in the months ahead. And professional and business services added just 7,000 job last month and manufacturing payrolls were flat.

What is the labor force participation rate?

In March, the labor force − which includes people working and job hunting – swelled by 469,000, boosting the share of all adults in that group from 62.5% to 62.7%, just under the post-pandemic high but well below the pre-COVID’s 63.3%.

A bigger labor supply helps contain wage growth, assuring the Fed that job growth can stay strong without triggering inflation.

Is the job market still strong?

Job growth has slowed gradually after a post-pandemic hiring burst in 2021 and 2022 but not nearly as much as anticipated, with employers adding well over 200,000 positions a month over the winter. Economists pointed to unseasonably warm weather in December and low layoff totals in January after fewer holiday workers were brought on in the fall.

Also, net job gains have been bolstered by employers’ reluctance to let workers go after grappling with two years of COVID-related worker shortages. Hires, though, have dropped below pre-pandemic levels amid high borrowing costs and uncertainty about the economy's course in a presidential election year.

As a result, some forecasters expect the forces that have propped up payroll growth will fade, resulting in fewer than 100,000 job gains a month by mid-year.

The delayed effects of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to fight inflation are likely to dampen business spending and hiring. Americans’ COVID-related savings largely have been depleted. And low- and middle-income households are feeling the strains of record credit card debt.

But Goldman Sachs believes a huge influx of immigrants will continue to boost the labor supply and juice hiring this year, noting the number of job openings is still well above the pre-crisis mark. Last month, immigration could have lifted job growth by as much as 50,000 to 290,000, Goldman said.

When Is the Next Jobs Report?

Bad news on the jobs front is good news for stocks.

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"When is the next jobs report" isn't usually a burning question when the economy is expanding and the unemployment rate is down to levels last seen more than 50 years ago.

But in the upside-down world of the post-pandemic recovery, bad news on the jobs front is good news for stocks.

Come again?

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Remember that market participants are desperate for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates . (That's because lower rates equal higher future returns for stocks.) The fact that the short-term federal funds rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is currently at a 23-year high is hardly ideal for equities over the longer haul.

And yet the remarkably robust labor market – and the rising wages that come with it – is making the Fed wary about rushing into rate cuts. Cut too soon, with a healthy economy and labor market as the backdrop, and inflation could accelerate again, the thinking goes. 

Rather, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the FOMC are trying to engineer what's known as a soft landing . That's where the central bank gets inflation back down to its long-term target of 2% without sparking a recession that throws millions of folks out of work.

And so if inflation is a case of too many dollars chasing too few goods, a tight labor market and rising wages are the last thing the Fed wants to see. That's why any time we get a better-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, it hasn't been the best news for equities. Plentiful jobs and rising wages typically help fuel inflation, at least when it's demand driven. (That the current period of global inflation appears to have been a supply-side issue is a discussion for another time.)

Bottom line: The Fed probably wants evidence of cooling wage pressures, among other items, before it begins easing. That's why the market has become so hinky about the jobs report even though we're not in recession. 

When is the next jobs report?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics , part of the Department of Labor , releases the Employment Situation Summary – also known as the employment report, jobs report or nonfarm payrolls report – at 8:30 am Eastern on the first Friday of every month. 

The jobs report consists of separate surveys of households and employers estimating the number of people on payrolls, average number of weekly hours worked, average hourly earnings, labor force participation, unemployment rates and other data. 

To get a sense of what the BLS is up to, here's an example of some of its methodology : "Each month the program surveys about 119,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 629,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The active sample includes approximately one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs."

The jobs report gives us a comprehensive look at the labor market, which is ultimately what fuels consumer spending . Recall that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity, and you can see why the jobs report has always been front and center. 

For those wondering "when is the next jobs report?," have a look at the schedule, courtesy of the BLS, below.

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These bellwether stocks are like weathervanes for their industries or the economy and are worth watching as indicators.

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April jobs report shows hiring, wage growth slow as unemployment unexpectedly jumps.

The US labor market cooled notably last month as both hiring and wage growth slowed more than economists had expected in April.

The US economy added 175,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday . Wall Street economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 240,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%, according to Bloomberg data.

Wages also rose less than forecast, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% over last month and 3.9% over the last year. Economists had expected to see a monthly jump of 0.3% in April and a 4% rise over last year.

Friday's report also showed February's job growth was revised down — to a gain of 236,000 nonfarm payroll jobs from the 270,000 previously reported — while March's report was revised up to job gains of 315,000 from the 303,000 initially reported .

Ahead of Friday's report, economists flagged revisions as important to watch, as the last year has seen the average month's payroll gains revised down by 13,000 jobs.

The length of the average workweek fell last month, to 34.3 from 34.4. The underemployment rate, which includes the unemployed and those marginally attached to the workforce, rose to 7.4%.

Stocks rallied on Friday following this report , with investors taking this labor market slowdown as evidence in favor of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at some point this year.

Data from the CME Group on Friday showed putting the odds of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting at roughly 2-to-1; by December, investors now see a less than 10% chance the Fed has interest rates in its current range of 5.25%-5.50%, down from a 20% chance a week ago.

By industry, the narrow gains in the labor market seen this year continued, with healthcare and social assistance employment increasing by a combined 87,000 in April, accounting for almost exactly half of the overall growth in nonfarm employment.

Retail, along with transportation and warehousing were the only two industries outside of healthcare and social assistance that saw payroll growth north of 20,000 last month.

"We suspect the near-record warm winter explains some of the strength over the preceding four months," Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in an email on Friday, "and April’s renewed slowdown bears that out a little — with construction employment up by only 8,000 and leisure & hospitality rising by a trivial 5,000."

The slowdown in wage growth seen last month also helps the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at some point this year, even as inflation data has remained higher than the central bank's 2% target and shown " bumpy " progress toward that level in recent months.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, called this piece of Friday's jobs report the "most important" part of the interest rate outlook.

"The more normal job market is dampening price pressures," Adams added, "and will reassure the Fed that the economy is still moving two steps forward, one step back toward lower inflation."

Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

Earlier this week, data from the BLS suggested wage pressures building after the Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated in the first quarter of 2024 to reach its highest level in a year.

In a press conference on Wednesday , Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the idea that wage pressures today are creating a meaningful inflationary impulse, noting "essentially all wage measures have come down substantially" from peaks reached after the pandemic.

Average hourly earnings, for instance, grew more than 5% annually during each month between September 2021 and December 2022.

April's figure marked the slowest pace of wage growth since June 2021.

Click here for the latest economic news and indicators to help inform your investing decisions .

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US jobs report for June is likely to point to slower but still-solid hiring

Paul Wiseman

Associated Press

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

FILE - Assembly line worker Lashunta Harris applies the Ford logo on a 2024 Ford F-150 truck being assembled at the Dearborn Truck Plant, April 11, 2024, in Dearborn, Mich. On Friday, June 5, 2024, the U.S. government issues its June jobs report. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)

WASHINGTON – The American job market likely cooled last month while still remaining fundamentally healthy, which would be welcome news for the Federal Reserve in its drive to fully tame inflation.

When the Labor Department issues the latest jobs report Friday, it’s expected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June — a solid gain, though down from a surprisingly robust 272,000 increase in May. The unemployment rate likely remained at a low 4%, according to forecasters surveyed by the data firm FactSet.

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From the Fed’s perspective, a deceleration in hiring to a still-decent pace would be just about ideal. It would suggest that the job market is slowing enough to ease pressure on employers to sharply raise pay, which could feed inflation, yet not so much as to cause waves of layoffs.

That said, economists been repeatedly predicting that the job market would lose momentum in the face of high interest rates engineered by the Fed, only to see the hiring gains show unexpected strength. The economy has added a healthy average of 248,000 jobs a month so far in 2024 . That’s close to the 2023 average of 251,000, though down from the sizzling gains of 2022 (an average of 377,000 added jobs each month) and 2021 (a record 604,000) as the economy roared back from COVID-19 recession.

“The labor market has really proven the doubters wrong,’’ said Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast, which uses technology to help companies recruit workers.

Still, Flowers suggested, the much higher borrowing costs caused by the Fed's rate hikes will eventually weaken the job market.

“Eventually," he said, "it’s going to bend, but not break. The slow bite of high interest rates is going to moderate job growth.’’

Already, there are signs of an economic slowdown. The U.S. gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at a lethargic annual pace of 1.4% from January through March, the slowest quarterly pace in nearly two years.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity and which has powered the expansion the past three years, rose at just a 1.5% pace last quarter after growing more than 3% in each of the previous two quarters. In addition, the number of advertised job openings has declined steadily since peaking at a record 12.2 million in March 2022.

Still, while employers might not be hiring so aggressively after having struggled to fill jobs the past two years, they aren’t cutting many, either. Most workers are enjoying an unusual level of job security.

“Businesses are hiring less amid cooler demand conditions," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "But they are also laying off fewer workers than before the pandemic. The job market is tight, so businesses don’t want to cut headcount today only to realize they need more workers tomorrow and then struggle to find them.’’

During 2022 and 2023, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times to try to conquer the worst streak of inflation in four decades, lifting its key rate to its highest point in 23 years. The punishingly higher borrowing rates that resulted, for consumers and businesses, were widely expected to trigger a recession. They didn't. The economy and the job market instead have shown surprising resilience.

Meanwhile, inflation has steadily declined from a 9.1% peak in 2022 to 3.3%. In remarks this week at a conference in Portugal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that price increases in the United States were slowing again after higher readings earlier this year. But, he cautioned, further evidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target level would be needed before the policymakers would cut rates.

Fed officials are sure to be watching Friday’s jobs report for signs that wage pressures are easing. According to FactSet, forecasters believe that average hourly earnings rose 3.9% last month from a year earlier. That would be the smallest such gain since June 2021. But it would still exceed the 3.5% average annual wage growth that many economists consider consistent with 2% inflation.

The jobs report comes as Americans are weighing the health of the economy in advance of the November presidential election. Many blame President Joe Biden for high prices that continue to squeeze their household budgets.

Some Americans are also feeling the effects of a weakening labor market. One of them, Caleb Hennington, of Little Rock, Arkansas, was laid off from his marketing job in March.

“Since then, it’s been a real struggle to find a new opportunity," said Hennington, 32, who said he has applied for more than 250 positions.

“Most places completely ghost me after saying they’ll get back to me quickly with a follow-up,’’ he said. “It’s been exhausting mentally, and even though I have 10 years in the marketing field, I’m struggling to find a new role. I’ve had to resort to picking up freelance gigs and part-time jobs just to have some income coming in.’’

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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• Economic News

What To Expect From the Monthly Jobs Report Friday

The Fed Will Be Watching the Numbers Closely as It Considers When to Cut Interest Rates

Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

UPDATE—July 3, 2024: This article has been updated to include the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

Key Takeaways

• Friday's monthly jobs report is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in June, down from the surprising growth reported in May, while the unemployment rate likely held stead at 4.0%.
• Economists are watching to see if government, health care, leisure and hospitality jobs continue to drive growth.
• Federal Reserve officials are watching for any softening of the labor market, which could motivate them to cut interest rates more quickly than anticipated.

Job growth in the U.S. likely slowed down in June, after a surprising jump the previous month.

The monthly employment report to be released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show that employers added 200,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate held steady at 4%, according to economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. That's less than the 272,000 jobs added in May .  

“Big Data measures continue to indicate a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season, and our layoff tracker is also edging higher from low levels,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a recent research note.

The jobs numbers will be watched closely by officials at the Federal Reserve, who have kept interest rates at a 23-year high for almost a year as part of an effort to contain inflation . Weakness in the labor market could prompt the central bank to consider cutting its benchmark rate, which would be welcome news for consumers and investors alike.

Job Growth Concentrated in a Few Sectors

Economists at Wells Fargo said they will be looking to see if job growth remains concentrated in a few sectors—particularly health care, government, and leisure and hospitality. While those industries account for 36% of all jobs, they make up 66% of the job growth since last June, the economists found. These sectors have rebounded after COVID-19-related job losses and haven’t been as strongly affected by high interest rates.

“We expect these three categories to continue to provide a sizable lift to the monthly rate of payroll gains that surpasses their pre-pandemic contribution and helps keep payroll gains afloat despite the current weight of monetary policy,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey George.

However, those categories are expected to provide less lift to the economy than in previous months. Wells Fargo economists expect job growth to slow over the next 12 months, dropping down to a pace of about 150,000 jobs a month. 

Fed Keeping Eye on Labor Markets

In another report on the job market Wednesday, there were some indicators of slowing ahead.

The ADP employment report came in under economists' expectations and slowed for the third month. In June, the private sector added 150,000 jobs as leisure and hospitality jobs accounted for more than two out of every five new jobs.

The report from the payroll services provider is often seen as a precursor to the  Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. ADP's employment numbers only cover private companies and do not include government jobs.

While the labor market has remained solid thus far, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly said in remarks last week that the longer interest rates stay elevated at decades-high levels , the bigger impact they could have on unemployment , potentially forcing the Fed to move more quickly on rate cuts. 

“So far, the labor market has adjusted slowly, and the unemployment rate has only edged up. But we are getting nearer to a point where that benign outcome could be less likely,” Daly said.

MarketWatch. “ U.S. Economic Calendar .”

Wells Fargo. “ Break in Concentration? ”

San Francisco Federal Reserve. “ Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality .”

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Canceling Congestion Pricing Could Kill 100,000 New York Jobs

Thousands of high-paying jobs in the state could be at risk if the funding that had been expected from congestion pricing is not restored, a new report says.

By Stefanos Chen

Gov. Kathy Hochul said she paused New York City’s congestion pricing program for economic reasons: The tolls could hurt the region’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic more than they helped.

But a new analysis of the transit budget gap left in the wake of the program’s suspension this month points to possibly deeper pain: the potential loss of thousands of high-paying jobs throughout the state over the next few years.

At least 101,500 jobs could be lost in New York if the state does not find another way to fill the multibillion-dollar hole left in the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s budget, according to a report released Wednesday by Reinvent Albany, a watchdog group.

A majority of those jobs would have been created by private companies that work with the authority to build new trains and buses and install new propulsion systems, among other things. On average, workers in these fields earn over $100,000 a year, said Rachael Fauss, a senior policy adviser with Reinvent Albany.

“The M.T.A. is an economic development engine for the entire region — not just to get people where they need to go, but to create jobs through all the infrastructure they have to maintain and repair and build,” she said.

The report, based on an analysis of M.T.A. spending and data from the Partnership for New York City, a business group, paints a picture of what might have happened if congestion pricing had been enacted, though how it would play out in reality is difficult to know. Reinvent Albany is a longtime supporter of the tolling program and has been critical of Ms. Hochul’s decision.

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The 10 highest-paying blue-collar construction jobs in the US

• Some Gen Zers are forgoing college and potential student debt to explore careers in trade jobs.
• A new report by Pro Tools Reviews identified the 10 highest-paying and most in-demand US trade jobs.
• The construction industry faced a labor shortage after COVID-19 and Gen Z is filling the gap.

Some Gen Zers are forgoing liberal arts degrees for jobs in construction.

According to the National Student Clearinghouse — a nonprofit that provides educational data and research — enrollments in vocational-focused community colleges were up 16% in 2023 compared to the year before, the highest level since its records began in 2018.

As the cost of college continues to rise and student debt lingers, Gen Zers are rethinking their career paths. College enrollments are declining nationwide, and some graduates find it tough to land a job. For many, trade jobs provide a financially secure alternative to a college degree.

For example, the construction industry faced a labor shortage following the COVID-19 pandemic, and some workers hope younger generations will fill the gap.

A new report by Pro Tools Reviews, an industry news and review site, highlights the highest-paying trade jobs in the US, giving insight into career opportunities that don't require a college degree.

Experts at Pro Tools analyzed May 2023 wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the latest available — to determine the most lucrative trade jobs.

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Elevator and escalator installers can make up to $100,060 annually, according to the report, making them the highest-paid trade job in the country.

Meanwhile, aircraft mechanics technicians and boilermakers can make upwards of $70,000 annually, according to the report.

"For the past several decades, society has more or less dictated that college and a corporate job are the only paths to success," Clint DeBoer, editor in chief at Pro Tools Reviews, wrote in a statement. "In today's economy, trade jobs—often referred to as blue-collar jobs—frequently offer a direct route to six-figure incomes."

Pro Tool Reviews also examined the most in-demand trade jobs in the US. According to listed opportunities from job board sites like LinkedIn, Glassdoor, and Indeed, Pro Tools Reviews found that maintenance and repair workers have the highest number of vacancies at 55,579.

For those looking for a sought-after job that pays well, electricians and pipefitters, plumbers, and steamfitters are among the top 10 highest-paid and top 10 most in-demand trade jobs.

"This doesn't imply that younger generations should forego further education entirely," DeBoer wrote. "Those deciding on the best way to enter the job market should simply consider all of their options."

Have you recently switched to a trade job, or are you a recent graduate looking to land a trade role? This reporter wants to hear from you. Please reach out at [email protected].

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