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  • Published: 03 August 2020

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios

  • Seleshi G. Yalew   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7304-6750 1 , 2 , 3 ,
  • Michelle T. H. van Vliet 2 , 4 ,
  • David E. H. J. Gernaat   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4994-1453 1 , 5 ,
  • Fulco Ludwig 2 ,
  • Ariel Miara   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7089-4765 6 , 7 ,
  • Chan Park   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4994-6855 8 ,
  • Edward Byers   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742 9 ,
  • Enrica De Cian 10 , 11 ,
  • Franziska Piontek 12 ,
  • Gokul Iyer   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3565-7526 13 ,
  • Ioanna Mouratiadou   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3541-6271 1 ,
  • James Glynn   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7004-0153 14 ,
  • Mohamad Hejazi 13 ,
  • Olivier Dessens 15 ,
  • Pedro Rochedo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-0893 16 ,
  • Robert Pietzcker   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711 12 ,
  • Roberto Schaeffer   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-7323 16 ,
  • Shinichiro Fujimori   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796 17 , 18 ,
  • Shouro Dasgupta   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4080-8066 10 , 11 ,
  • Silvana Mima 19 ,
  • Silvia R. Santos da Silva   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6493-1475 13 , 20 ,
  • Vaibhav Chaturvedi 21 ,
  • Robert Vautard   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5544-9903 22 &
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831 1 , 5  

Nature Energy volume  5 ,  pages 794–802 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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  • Projection and prediction

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank the JPI Climate initiative and participating grant institutes for funding the ISIpedia project. We also thank J. Burrough for professional advice on the English of a near-final draft. E.d.C. has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 756194 (ENERGYA). J.G. is supported by a research grant from Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under the SFI-NSFC Partnership Programme, grant no. 17/NSFC/5181. D.P.v.V., R.S. and D.E.H.J.G. are supported by the Horizon 2020 NAVIGATE project, and D.P.v.V., R.S. and D.E.H.J.G. also acknowledge support from the COMMIT and Horizon 2020 ENGAGE project. F.P. acknowledges support through the project ENGAGE funded in the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2016-PIK-1), as well as through the project CHIPS, part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR/BMBF (DE, grant no. 01LS19XXY), AEI (ES) and ANR (FR) with cofunding by the European Union (grant no. 776608). R.S. acknowledges the financial support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), from the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq grant no. 465501/2014-1 and the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES) grant no. 88887.136402/2017-00, all from Brazil. A.M. acknowledges support from the US Department of Energy, Office of Science’s Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modelling project and National Science Foundation’s Water Sustainability and Climate grant no. 1360445. This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (A.M.), operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. S.F. is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1908 and 2-2002) provided by the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan. C.P. is supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Climate Change R&D Programme, funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2018001310003).

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Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

Seleshi G. Yalew, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Ioanna Mouratiadou & Detlef P. van Vuuren

Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands

Seleshi G. Yalew, Michelle T. H. van Vliet & Fulco Ludwig

Policy Analysis, Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Technical University of Delft, Delft, the Netherlands

Seleshi G. Yalew

Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

Michelle T. H. van Vliet

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency-PBL, The Hague, the Netherlands

David E. H. J. Gernaat & Detlef P. van Vuuren

Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY, New York City, NY, USA

Ariel Miara

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA

Department of Landscape Architecture, College of Urban Science, University of Seoul, Seoul, Korea

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Edward Byers

Fondazione CMCC, Venice, Italy

Enrica De Cian & Shouro Dasgupta

Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

Franziska Piontek & Robert Pietzcker

Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA

Gokul Iyer, Mohamad Hejazi & Silvia R. Santos da Silva

MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

James Glynn

Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK

Olivier Dessens

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S.G.Y. and D.P.v.V. codesigned the study. S.G.Y. collected and analysed data, and cowrote the initial draft manuscript with D.P.v.V. S.G.Y., D.P.v.V. and M.T.H.v.V. performed sectoral analysis of energy systems. S.G.Y., D.P.v.V., M.T.H.v.V., D.E.H.J.G., F.L., A.M., C.P., E.B., E.d.C., F.P., G.I., I.M., J.G., M.H., O.D., P.R., R.P., R.S., S.F., S.D., S.M., S.R.S.d.S., V.C. and R.V. contributed to the review of sectoral and regional climate impacts.

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Yalew, S.G., van Vliet, M.T.H., Gernaat, D.E.H.J. et al. Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios. Nat Energy 5 , 794–802 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z

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Energy, exergy, and exergoeconomic cost optimization of wind-biomass multi-energy systems integrated for hydrogen production

  • Published: 13 May 2024

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literature review on alternative sources of energy

  • Caroline Acen 1 ,
  • Olusola Bamisile   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5154-6404 1 , 2 , 3 ,
  • Michael Adedeji 4 ,
  • Dongsheng Cai 1 ,
  • Mustafa Dagbasi 4 ,
  • Yihua Hu 3 &
  • Iain Staffell 2  

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The recent effects of climate change and rising global warming levels have increased the need to transition towards clean energy. The use of multi-energy systems is one of the potential solutions to these issues, as validated in the literature. The production of hydrogen from cleaner sources has an integral role in decarbonizing the industrial, building, and transportation sectors. Hence, this study proposes novel multi-energy systems that can produce hydrogen from wind resources. The study is novel as it developed an innovative multi-energy system configuration and also considers hydrogen production as a means to utilize excess wind power production. The intermittency of wind resources has been a major drawback in using this renewable energy as the singular source for multi-generation systems. The multi-energy configuration developed and analyzed in this study proposed a solution for this by integrating a regenerative reheat biomass integrated power cycle as an auxiliary system for the multi-generation system (Wind-Bio-MGS). This system is modeled to produce electricity, heating, hot water, and hydrogen. The energy, exergy, and exergoeconomic approach is adopted in this study to evaluate the steady-state performance of the system, while the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of heating (LCOh), and levelized cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) are also computed. A multi-objective optimization of the overall exergy efficiency and total product unit cost is presented. The parametric analysis of the energy systems is included to show the sensitivity of different parameters to changes and validate the robustness of the modeled system. The results show that the integration of hydrogen with wind-based multi-generation systems is a viable means of reducing carbon emissions and global warming. The overall energy and exergy efficiencies of the Wind-Bio-MGS system are 69.13% and 31.16%, respectively. The LCOE, LCOh, and LCOH for the system, respectively, are 0.02828 $ kWh −1 , 0.004038 $ kWh −1 , and 1.311 $ kg −1  s −1 .

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Abbreviations

Alkaline water electrolyzer

Brayton cycle

Specific cost

Closed feedwater heater

Carbon dioxide

Coefficient of performance

Specific exergy

Engineering equation solver

Greenhouse gas

Specific enthalpy

Hot water heater

Levelized cost of heating

Levelized cost of electricity

Levelized cost of hydrogen

Levelized cost of water

Linear Fresnel concentrator

Kilogram per cubic meter

Kilogram per second

Mass flow rate (kg s −1 )

Meters squared

Meters per second

Multi-effect desalination

Multi-generation energy system

Municipal solid waste

Open feedwater heater

Organic Rankine cycle

Proton exchange membrane

Parabolic trough collectors

Lower heating value

Heat transfer rate (kW)

Rankine cycle

Renewable energy sources

Specific entropy

Solid-oxide fuel cell

Steam Rankine cycle

Two-source multi-generation system

Work done/power

Exergy unit cost

Exergy efficiency

Dollar per kilogram

Dollar per kilowatts hour

Kilogram per hour

Dollar per hour

Destruction

Electricity

Heat exchanger

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52007025), Sichuan Provincial Key Lab for Power System-Wide Area Measurement (Grant No. 2021KP012), Science and Technology Innovation Talent Program of Sichuan Provincial (Grant No. 22CJDRC0025), and Science and Technology Innovation Talent Program of Sichuan Provincial (Grant No. 22CXRC0010).

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Acen, C., Bamisile, O., Adedeji, M. et al. Energy, exergy, and exergoeconomic cost optimization of wind-biomass multi-energy systems integrated for hydrogen production. J Therm Anal Calorim (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10973-024-13135-2

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More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total

FILE - Solar panels work near the small town of Milagro, Navarra Province, northern Spain, Feb. 24, 2023. Billions of people are using different kinds of energy each day and 2023 was a record-breaking year for renewable energy sources, according to a report published Wednesday, May 8, 2024, by Ember, a think tank based in London. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos, File)

Solar panels work near the small town of Milagro, Navarra Province, northern Spain, Feb. 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos)

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Billions of people are using different kinds of energy each day and 2023 was a record-breaking year for renewable energy sources — ones that don’t emit planet-warming pollutants like carbon dioxide and methane — according to a report published Wednesday by Ember, a think tank based in London.

For the first time, 30% of electricity produced worldwide was from clean energy sources as the number of solar and wind farms continued to grow fast.

Of the types of clean energy generated last year, hydroelectric dams produced the most. That’s the same as in most years. Yet droughts in India, China, North America and Mexico meant hydropower hit a five-year low. Research shows climate change is causing droughts to develop more quickly and be more severe .

People used more electricity than ever last year, about 2% more, an increase of about as much as Canada uses in a year. Some of this new demand was for heat pumps , which are an efficient way to both heat and cool buildings, and for electric vehicles . It was also for electrolyzers, special machines used to get hydrogen out of water, for energy. These are all technologies that provide solutions to climate change.

Other increased demand was for electricity to feed new data centers and for air conditioning as places around the world become hotter.

Solar made up the biggest share of new clean energy last year. More than twice as much solar power was added as coal power. It was the 19th year in a row that solar was the fastest-growing source of electricity generation. A surge in solar installations happened at the end of the year and the report predicts 2024 will see an even larger jump.

China added more renewable energy than any other country last year — 51% of the new solar power and 60% of the new wind power globally. China, the European Union, the United States and Brazil together accounted for 81% of new solar generation in 2023.

Yet China was also responsible for 55% of coal generation globally and 60% of China’s electricity generation came from coal. The International Energy Agency says coal is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels.

FILE - Tim McCanon, center, is rescued by the Community Fire Department during severe flooding on Friday, May 3, 2024, in New Caney, Texas. In a world growing increasingly accustomed to wild weather swings, the last few days and weeks have seemingly taken those environmental extremes to a new level. (Raquel Natalicchio/Houston Chronicle via AP, File)

Scientists say emissions from burning fuels like coal must ramp steeply down to protect Earth’s climate, yet there was an increase in electricity made from burning fossil fuels. China, India, Vietnam and Mexico were responsible for nearly all of the rise.

The report said some countries burned coal to make up for the loss of hydroelectric power they experienced when drought caused their reservoirs to dry up. This is an example of a vicious cycle — when climate change prompts the use of more of the substances that cause climate change in the first place.

Despite all the growth in clean energy, fossil fuels still made up the majority of global electricity generated last year, causing a 1% rise in global power sector emissions. Scientists say even if we slashed all greenhouse gas emissions today, the planet would continue to warm for years because of the amount of pollutants already added to the atmosphere.

Analysts expect the world to use even more electricity in 2024. But renewable energy generation is forecast to grow even faster. That could mean a 2% drop (333 terawatt-hours) in energy generated from fossil fuels.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .

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They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly.

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Peak demand

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As batteries have proliferated, power companies are using them in novel ways, such as handling big swings in electricity generation from solar and wind farms, reducing congestion on transmission lines and helping to prevent blackouts during scorching heat waves.

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Mike Blake/Reuters

When power companies first began connecting batteries to the grid in the 2010s, they mainly used them to smooth out small disruptions in the flow of electricity, say, if a power plant unexpectedly tripped offline. Many battery operators still earn most of their revenue by providing these “ancillary services.”

But power companies also use batteries to engage in a type of trading: charging up when electricity is plentiful and cheap and then selling power to the grid when electricity supplies are tighter and more expensive.

In California power prices often crash around midday, when the state produces more solar power than it needs, especially in the spring when air-conditioning use is low. Prices then soar in the evening when solar disappears and grid operators have to increase output from gas plants or hydroelectric dams to compensate.

California How Batteries Operated on the Grid in April 2024

April 30: Peak

battery output

Batteries mostly charge during the middle of the day, when cheap solar power is abundant.

+6,000 megawatts

Each line is a

day in April

April 8: Solar

−2,000

And discharge when the sun goes down, sending power back to the grid.

−4,000

How batteries operated on the grid

in California in April 2024

Sources: California Independent System Operator via Grid Status

California now has 10,000 megawatts of battery power capacity on the grid , enough to power 10 million homes for a few hours. Those batteries are “able to very effectively manage that evening ramp where solar is going down and customer demand is increasing,” said John Phipps, executive director of grid operations for the California Independent System Operator, which oversees the state’s grid.

Batteries can also help California’s grid handle stresses from heat waves and wildfires, Mr. Phipps said. “It made some differences last summer,” he said. “We were able to meet high load days and wildfire days when we might lose some power lines.”

In Texas, batteries are still largely used to provide ancillary services, stabilizing the grid against unexpected disruptions. Texas is also more reliant than California on wind energy, which fluctuates in less predictable patterns.

But Texas is quickly catching up to California in solar power, and batteries increasingly help with evening peaks. On April 28, the sun was setting just as wind power was unexpectedly low and many coal and gas plants were offline for repairs. Batteries jumped in, supplying 4 percent of Texas’ electricity at one point , enough to power a million homes. Last summer, batteries helped avert evening blackouts by providing additional power during record heat.

Texas How Batteries Operated on the Grid in April 2024

April 28: Peak

+2,000 megawatts

in Texas in April 2024

Sources: Electric Reliability Council of Texas via Grid Status

The two states built their battery fleets in distinct ways. In California, regulatory mandates were a key impetus: In 2019, officials worried that too many older gas plants were closing, risking blackouts, and ordered utilities to quickly install thousands of megawatts of storage.

In Texas, market forces dominate. The state’s deregulated electricity system allows prices to fluctuate sharply, rising as high as $5,000 per megawatt-hour during acute shortages. That makes it lucrative for battery developers to take advantage of spikes, such as in locations where power lines periodically get clogged.

“Anywhere we think the market is going to get tight, you can put batteries in and even things out,” said Stephanie Smith, chief operating officer of Eolian, a battery developer. “Then, we’re making bets all day about when to charge and discharge.”

One battery, for instance, sits near Fort Worth, absorbing excess wind power from West Texas during the nighttime, when no one needs it, and feeding it into the grid when demand surges.

Other states are following. In Arizona and Georgia, utilities plan to install thousands of megawatts of battery capacity to help manage rising demand from data centers and factories. It helps that batteries can be deployed quickly, said Aaron Mitchell, vice president of planning and pricing at Georgia Power.

The industry still faces obstacles, however. Lithium-ion batteries are flammable, and while operators have taken steps to reduce fire risk, some communities oppose projects in their backyards . Most batteries still come from China, making them vulnerable to trade disputes. In Texas, a state fund to subsidize gas plants could undercut the battery boom. In other states, complex regulations sometimes prevent utilities from adding energy storage .

“Because these storage resources are so new, the rules are still catching up,” said Natalie McIntire, who works on grid issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

Can Grid Batteries Help Fight Climate Change?

Power lines, seen in twilight, extending from the foreground to the horizon, with wind turbines on either side. The sky is deep red along the horizon.

Wind turbines near Sweetwater, Texas. Nationwide, battery storage is being used to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.

Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Grid batteries could be a useful tool to slash planet-warming emissions, experts say, though they still need further advances in terms of costs, technologies and how they are used.

In Texas, many batteries today are actually increasing carbon-dioxide emissions, according to one analysis . That’s because operators focus on maximizing revenue and sometimes charge with coal or gas power.

“These batteries have an immense capability to abate carbon, but they need the right incentives to do so,” said Emma Konet, co-founder of Tierra Climate , a startup working to help batteries earn money for reducing emissions.

In California, by contrast, batteries appear to be cutting emissions from fossil fuels. The state’s gas use in April fell to a seven-year low . “We have reached the conclusion that batteries are displacing natural gas when solar generation is ramping up and down each day,” said Max Kanter, chief executive of Grid Status, an electricity data tracking firm.

Yet California still gets roughly 40 percent of its electricity from natural gas, and it could be difficult for current battery technology to replace all of that. One analysis from BloombergNEF found that solar and batteries can be a cost-effective alternative to smaller gas “peaker” plants that only switch on when demand spikes. But batteries remain too costly to replace many of the larger gas-burning plants that provide steadier power day and night.

“You don’t want to necessarily build a system where you’ve got batteries to suck up every last megawatt-hour, because that’s a pretty expensive system,” said Meredith Fowlie, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Today’s lithium-ion batteries typically only deliver power for two to four hours before needing to recharge. If costs keep falling, battery companies might be able to extend that to eight or ten hours (it’s a matter of adding more battery packs) but it may not be economical to go far beyond that, said Nate Blair, an energy storage expert at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

That means additional long-duration storage technologies could be needed. If California wants to rely largely on renewable energy, it will have to handle weeklong periods where there’s no wind and little sun . Another challenge: There’s far more solar power available in summer than in winter, and no battery today can store electricity for months to manage those seasonal disparities.

Some companies are exploring solutions. In Sacramento, a start-up called ESS is building “flow” batteries that store energy in liquid electrolytes and can last 12 hours or longer. Another start-up, Form Energy, is building a 100-hour iron-air battery . These ideas will have to compete against alternatives like nuclear power, advanced geothermal or even using green hydrogen to store electricity .

California’s regulators say they may need five times as much storage capacity by midcentury, even if it’s unclear which technologies will prevail.

“We’re just at the beginning of this,” said Mr. Phipps of the California Independent System Operator.

A worker in a hardhat sits on the ground in the doorway of a large, boxy structure somewhat like a storage locker.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

In the top graphic, charts reflect average daily power generation, by fuel type, in five-minute increments for the month of April. The charts show imports from other regions, as well as times when battery power is discharged to the grid, but they do not show battery charging or electricity exports. The data reflects utility-scale generation and does not include “behind-the-meter” sources, such as rooftop solar panels. No adjustments are made for variations in weather.

The California Independent System Operator’s method for counting natural gas generation resources changed in December 2023 . Before then, the organization had been slightly overcounting gas “on the range of a few hundred megawatts,” according to a spokesperson.

Average sunrise and sunset times are shown on the charts.

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Florida’s state government will no longer be required to consider climate change when crafting energy policy  under legislation signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican.

Scientists have already established that the summer of 2023 was the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere since around 1850. Now, researchers say it was the hottest in 2,000 years .

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, an obscure climate agency , approved sweeping changes to how America’s electric grids are planned and funded . The new rule could help speed up wind and solar energy.

A Cosmic Perspective:  Alarmed by the climate crisis and its impact on their work, a growing number of astronomers  are using their expertise to fight back.

Struggling N.Y.C. Neighborhoods:  New data projects are linking social issues with global warming. Here’s what that means for five communities in New York .

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