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Project 2025 would overhaul the U.S. tax system. Here's how it could impact you.

By Aimee Picchi

Edited By Anne Marie Lee

Updated on: July 12, 2024 / 1:42 PM EDT / CBS News

Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint for the next Republican president, is gaining attention for its proposals to overhaul the federal government. Among those changes: a major restructuring of the U.S. tax code. 

President Biden and Democrats have been citing Project 2025 in recent weeks as they seek to highlight what could be in store if former President Donald Trump wins at the polls in November and retakes the White House in January.  Many of the blueprint's proposals touch on economic matters that could impact millions of Americans, as well as social issues such as abortion and diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, topics. 

Project 2025 , overseen by the conservative Heritage Foundation, is spearheaded by two ex-Trump administration officials: project director Paul Dans, who was chief of staff at the Office of Personnel Management, and Spencer Chretien, former special assistant to Trump who is now the project's associate director.

Trump: "I know nothing about Project 2025"

For his part, Trump has distanced himself from the blueprint, writing on Truth Social early Thursday that he isn't familiar with the plan. His campaign has proposed its own goals through " Agenda 47 ," which tends to focus on social and political issues such as homelessness and immigration rather than taxes.

"I know nothing about Project 2025. I have not seen it, have no idea who is in charge of it, and, unlike our very well received Republican Platform, had nothing to do with it," Trump wrote  Thursday.

His pushback comes after Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts opined in a podcast interview that the U.S. is "in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be." 

According to Project 2025's website, its goal is to have "a governing agenda and the right people in place, ready to carry this agenda out on day one of the next conservative administration."

A shift to two brackets

The tax proposals of Project 2025, if enacted, would likely affect every adult in the U.S. by tossing out the nation's long-standing system of multiple tax brackets, which is designed to help lower-income Americans pay a smaller share of their income in federal taxes compared with middle- or high-income workers. 

Currently, there are seven tax brackets — 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37% — with each based on income thresholds. For instance, a married couple pays 10% in federal income tax on their first $23,200 of income, and then 12% on earnings from $23,201 to $94,300, and so on. Married couples need to earn over $487,450 this year to hit the top tax rate of 37%.

Project 2025 argues that the current tax system is too complicated and expensive for taxpayers to navigate. To remedy those problems, it proposes just two tax rates: a 15% flat tax for people earning up to about $168,000, and a 30% income tax for people earning above that, according to the document . It also proposes eliminating "most deductions, credits and exclusions," although the blueprint doesn't specify which ones would go and which would stay.

"The federal income tax system is progressive, and people who make more money pay a higher marginal tax rate than people who make less money," Brendan Duke, senior director for economic policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, told CBS MoneyWatch. "Conservatives look at that, and they feel that that's unfair to the wealthy to ask them to pay a greater share of their income in taxes than lower income families."

The Project 2025 proposal "is a dramatic reform of how we fund our government, where we ask the wealthy to pitch in more than lower income families," he said. "This shifts taxes from the wealthy to the middle class, full stop."

Project 2025 didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. 

In a statement, the Heritage Foundation said it will ultimately be up to the next conservative president do decide which recommendations to implement, adding "As we've been saying for more than two years now, Project 2025 does not speak for any candidate or campaign." 

Project 2025's tax rates 

Millions of low- and middle-class households would likely face significantly higher taxes under the Project 2025's proposals.

He estimated that a middle-class family with two children and an annual income of $100,000 would pay $2,600 in additional federal income tax if they faced a 15% flat tax on their income due to the loss of the 10% and 12% tax brackets. If the Child Tax Credit were also eliminated, they would pay an additional $6,600 compared with today's tax system, Duke said. 

By comparison, a married couple with two children and earnings of $5 million a year would enjoy a $325,000 tax cut, he estimated. 

"That 15% bracket is a very big deal in terms of raising taxes on middle-class families," Duke said. 

Millions of U.S. households earning less than $168,000 would likely face higher taxes with a 15% rate. Currently, the bottom half of American taxpayers, who earn less than $46,000 a year, pay an effective tax rate of 3.3%  — which reflects their income taxes after deductions, tax credits and other benefits. 

Among other tax and economic changes proposed by Project 2025: 

• Cutting the corporate tax rate to 18% from its current 21%, which was enacted in 2017's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Prior to the TCJA, the corporate tax rate stood at 35%.
• Reducing the capital gains tax to 15%. Currently, high-income earners pay a tax of 20% on their capital gains.
• Eliminating credits for green energy projects created by the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Considering the introduction of a U.S. consumption tax, such as a national sales tax. 
• Eliminating the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain full employment in the labor market.

To be sure, overhauling the tax system would require lawmakers to approve changes to the tax code, which could be difficult if either the House or Senate is controlled by the opposing party. For instance, Trump was able to get his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by a Republican-led Congress, even though no Democrats voted in support of the measure. 

What does Trump say about taxes?

Trump hasn't yet proposed any concrete tax plans, but analysts expect that he would seek to extend the tax cuts enacted through the TCJA if he is reelected. Currently, many of the provisions of the TCJA, including lower tax brackets, are set to expire at the end of 2025. 

One likely scenario if Trump is reelected is that Republican lawmakers would extend the TJCA's tax cuts, while seeking to fund the reduction in tax revenue by repealing some of the clean energy and climate-related provisions in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, according to an April report from Oxford Economics. Lawmakers could also seek to cut spending on social benefits to offset the tax cuts, the research firm added.

Trump has suggested a proposal to create a 10% tariff for all imports and a 60% tariff for Chinese imports that could raise enough money to eliminate the federal income tax. 

Tax experts also say the math doesn't work out because money raised from new tariffs would fall far short of replacing the more than $2 trillion in individual income taxes collected by the IRS each year. Consumers are also likely to pay more in higher costs for imported consumer goods and services with tariffs tacked onto them, experts note.

"A tariff is a consumption tax, and there is a throughline between [Project 2025's] tax reform and what Trump has talked about, getting rid of taxes in favor of a consumption tax," Duke noted. 

• Donald Trump

Aimee Picchi is the associate managing editor for CBS MoneyWatch, where she covers business and personal finance. She previously worked at Bloomberg News and has written for national news outlets including USA Today and Consumer Reports.

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REPORT: Star Player of Raiders' AFC West Rival Says Team Was at 'Rock Bottom' Last Season

Michael france | 12 hours ago.

• Las Vegas Raiders

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders gave one of the biggest beatdowns in recent memory with their franchise-record thrashing of the Los Angeles Chargers, 63-21. The game helped facilitate notable changes for both teams.

The game, along with the Raiders' Christmas Day victory against the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, likely helped secure then-interim head coach Antonio Pierce a full-time job at the helm. It also was the final nail in the coffin for then-Chargers head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, who were both fired after the game.

Now, Telesco is the Raiders' general manager. And Jim Harbaugh is the Chargers' new head coach. Harbaugh joined the Chargers after winning a national championship with Michigan. He left the Wolverines amidst scandals involving sign-stealing and recruiting violations.

Harbaugh is implementing his vision and establishing a new culture with the Chargers in a similar vein to what Pierce is doing for the Silver and Black. Some think that the Harbaugh hire will mark an instant turnaround and playoff contention. Recently, Chargers linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu seemed to pump the brakes on the hire with Eric Smith of Chargers.com.

"I was excited. But I wasn't too excited because we still have to do what we need to do to win," Tuipulotu said. "I'm not saying this in a bad way, but because we have a new coach, the players still have to do their part, too, to win games. That's where I'm at."

After all, this was a team that finished in the bottom 10 of points for and against and had a 5-12 record. The losing seemed to be demoralizing to Tuipulotu.

"It was pretty tough," Tuipolotu said. "It kind of gave me flashbacks of my sophomore year at USC. We had a bad record like that and yeah, it's not a good thing, it's not a good feeling. You question a lot of stuff when you're losing even though you shouldn't. But sometimes it just happens just because you're losing so much. But I think we just keep building. I mean, we hit the rock bottom, so the only way is up now."

The Raiders will play the Chargers in Los Angeles Week 1.

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Rocket report: firefly’s ceo steps down; artemis ii core stage leaves factory, rocket factory augsburg completed qualification of its upper stage for a first launch this year..

Stephen Clark - Jul 19, 2024 11:00 am UTC

Welcome to Edition 7.03 of the Rocket Report! One week ago, SpaceX suffered a rare failure of its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket. In fact, it was the first time the latest version of the Falcon 9, known as the Block 5, has ever failed on its prime mission after nearly 300 launches. The world's launch pads have been silent since the grounding of the Falcon 9 fleet after last week's failure. This isn't surprising, but it's noteworthy. After all, the Falcon 9 has flown more this year than all of the world's other rockets combined and is fundamental to much of what the world does in space.

As always, we welcome reader submissions . If you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Astra finally goes private, again. A long-simmering deal for Astra's founders to take the company private has been finalized, the company announced Thursday, capping the rocket launch company’s descent from blank-check darling to delisting in three years, Bloomberg reports . The launch company's valuation peaked at $3.9 billion in 2021, the year it went public, and was worth about $12.2 million at the end of March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Astra's chief executive officer, Chris Kemp, and chief technology officer, Adam London, founded the company in 2016 with the goal of essentially commoditizing launch services for small satellites. But Astra's rockets failed to deliver and fell short of orbit five times in seven tries.

Spiraling ... Astra's stock price tanked after the spate of launch failures, drying up its funding spigot as Kemp tried to pivot toward a slightly larger, more reliable rocket. Astra acquired a company named Apollo Fusion in 2021, entering a new business segment to produce electric thrusters for small satellites. But Astra's launch business faltered, and last November Kemp and London submitted an offer to retake ownership of the company. Astra announced the closure of the take-private deal Thursday, with Kemp and London acquiring the company's outstanding shares for 50 cents per share in cash, below the stock's final listing price of 53 cents. "We will now focus all of our attention on a successful launch of Rocket 4, delivering satellite engines to our customers, and building a company of consequence," Kemp said. (submitted by EllPeaTea and Ken the Bin)

Firefly chief leaves company. Launch startup Firefly Aerospace parted ways with CEO Bill Weber, Payload reports . The announcement of Weber's departure late Wednesday came two days after Payload reported Firefly was investigating claims of an alleged inappropriate relationship between him and a female employee. “Firefly Aerospace’s Board of Directors announced that Bill Weber is no longer serving as CEO of the company, effective immediately,” the company said in a statement Wednesday night. Peter Schumacher takes over as interim CEO while Firefly searches for a new permanent chief executive. Schumacher was an interim CEO at Firefly before Weber's hiring in 2022.

Two days and gone ... Payload published the first report of Weber's alleged improper relationship with a female employee Monday. Two days later, Weber was gone. Payload reported an executive brought his concerns about the alleged relationship to Firefly's board and resigned because he lost confidence in leadership at the company. Citing four current and former employees, Payload reported Firefly's culture became "chaotic" since Weber took the helm in 2022 after its acquisition by AE Industrial Partners. The Texas-based company achieved some success during Weber's tenure, with four orbital launches of its Alpha rocket, although two of the flights ended up in lower-than-planned orbits. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

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Themis hop tests delayed to next year.  The initial hop tests of the European Themis reusable booster, developed by ArianeGroup and funded by ESA, won't start until next year, European Spaceflight reports . The Swedish Space Corporation, which operates the space center in Sweden where Themis will initially fly, confirmed the schedule change. Once ArianeGroup moves on to higher altitude flights, the testing will be moved to the Guiana Space Center. ESA awarded the first development contract for the Themis booster in 2019, and the first hop tests were then scheduled for 2022. Themis' hops will be similar to SpaceX's Grasshopper rocket, which performed a series of up-and-down atmospheric test flights before SpaceX started recovering and reusing Falcon 9 boosters.

Fate of Themis ... The Themis booster is powered by the methane-fueled Prometheus engine, also funded by ESA. A large European reusable rocket is unlikely to fly until the 2030s, but a subsidiary of ArianeGroup named MaiaSpace is developing a smaller partially reusable two-stage rocket slated to debut as soon as next year. The Maia rocket will use a modified Themis booster as its first stage. "As a result, for MaiaSpace, the continued and rapid development of the Themis program is essential to ensure it can hit its projected target of an inaugural flight of Maia in 2025," European Spaceflight reports. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

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What went wrong? How did Secret Service allow shooter to get so close to Trump?

Investigations into the sniper shooting that injured Donald Trump and killed a local firefighter must focus on whether several key Secret Service protocols were violated, current and former law enforcement officials said Sunday.

Chief among them: Why wasn't a building well within 1,000 yards of the former president locked down enough to prevent the shooter from nearly assassinating the presumptive GOP presidential nominee?

In an exclusive interview, former Secret Service Director Julia Pierson told USA TODAY that maintaining such a sniper security perimeter is part of the agency's responsibility for safeguarding "protectees" like Trump from harm. Yet the man identified as the sniper, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks , fired off numerous rounds from a building top about 150 yards from Trump's lectern at Saturday's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

“I think 1,000 yards is the sniper capability that we have a concern about for the President. So anything that's within that range, that is a professional, makable shot... and you want to know about it,” Pierson said.

“When you think about it, it's a football field and a half … and that is a makeable shot by an individual.  And obviously an inch would have made a difference in this case and Trump wouldn't be with us,” said Pierson, who spent three decades with the Secret Service, much of that on presidential protective operations, before becoming director in 2013.

Crooks managed to fire off numerous rounds , injuring two other people in the crowd, before being killed by a Secret Service counter-sniper sharpshooter from another nearby roof. On Sunday evening, the FBI clarified that Crooks had used an "AR-style 556 rifle ."  

Rep. Ruben Gallego, a former Marine and Arizona Democrat, said that those "responsible for the planning, approving and executing of this clearly insufficient security plan need to testify before Congress and be held accountable."

"There should never have been a clear line of sight on the former president. My Marine Corps training taught me that,” said Gallego, an Iraq veteran who is running for Senate in Arizona.

President Joe Biden also weighed in, directing Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to review all security measures for the Republican National Convention, which begins Monday in Milwaukee. He said he had ordered an independent review of the security measures taken at the Trump rally to "assess exactly what happened."

First assassination attempt against a former or current President in 43 years

The shooting marks the first assassination attempt against a former or current U.S. president since President Ronald Reagan was injured in a March 1981 shooting at a Washington, D.C. hotel. Before that, in 1975 a member of the Manson Family cult tried to shoot President Gerald Ford at close range in Sacramento, California but failed to chamber a round into the gun.

The Secret Service has confirmed that it is investigating how a gunman armed with an AR-style rifle was able to get close enough to shoot and injure Trump in what appears to be an epic failure of one the agency's primary duties of protecting VIPs. The FBI, state police and the U.S. Congress also will be seeking to answer the many swirling questions.

Some of those questions: How did Donald Trump’s would-be assassin gain a high-ground vantage point to fire off a potentially fatal head shot against the former president? Why didn’t Secret Service counter-sniper teams neutralize Crooks before he got off so many rounds from his high-powered rifle, killing one Trump rally-goer and injuring two others?

Also, if Crooks had been flagged by local authorities for acting suspiciously as some media have reported, why was he then able to climb atop a nearby building with a rifle, firing a shot that grazed Trump's ear? And why did Secret Service agents allow Trump to stand back up defiantly and do three fist-pumps when it wasn't clear that the threat had been fully neutralized?

Could this have been stopped before it started?

John Miller, a former senior FBI and New York Police Department official, said on CNN that Crooks had been observed acting suspiciously near the magnetometers, or metal detectors stationed outside the event by local law enforcement agencies.

Those officials then shared those concerns with the Secret Service and other authorities “and people had his description and were looking around for him,” said Miller, who’s currently a CNN analyst.

At some point, Miller said, Crooks “left the magnetometer area. And then at some point, people start to point out there's a guy who's climbing on that roof, and he has a rifle and police are putting that over the radio.”

According to some video and media reports, the Secret Service counter-sniper on a nearby rooftop was aiming at the shooter, perhaps before he took some or all of his shots.

“The counter sniper appears to be looking through his scope as if he's scanning for something. … And then, when the shots are fired, takes out the shooter from his position almost immediately,” said Miller, the NYPD’s deputy commissioner of Intelligence & Counterterrorism until 2022. “So we have to fill in those gaps. What happened during those seconds? What were the communications? What did he see through the scope, and did he act at his first opportunity? And we'll learn that later.”

Miller said the counter-sniper succeeded in eliminating the threat quickly. “That part worked,” he said. But, he added, “What about the front end? Could this have been stopped with faster or more clear communications or a more intense search?”

Investigations have already begun

It’s possible and even likely that the Secret Service security plan for the rally, in conjunction with local and state authorities, took into consideration the building from which Crooks allegedly sprayed bullets. It could have been locked down from the inside, prompting Crooks to have to climb to the roof from the outside as part of the security plan put in place by authorities before the rally.

But the entire sequence of events will be investigated to find out what went so wrong that Crooks was able to gain access to the roof of the building, including whether he might have surveilled the site ahead of time to find the best way up, according to current and former law enforcement officials.

William Pickle, a former special agent in charge of the Secret Service's Vice Presidential Protective Division who oversaw Vice President Al Gore’s detail, said there are provisions in any Secret Service security survey that nearby buildings are accounted for. The Secret Service regularly secures public areas such as parade routes peppered with large buildings, and advance teams interview building owners and business managers to determine who has access to the building and at what times to determine if agents need to stand watch.

“We know who’s there, why they’re there, we have control over those buildings,” Pickle said. “It seems like somewhere in this security survey, someone dropped the ball on those particular buildings.”

Though Pickle said the counter-sniper that took out the shooter did an “outstanding” job, he questioned if the Secret Service had posted additional counter-sniper teams to sufficiently cover the entire event perimeter. “A gunshot knows no boundaries except by the velocity and distance a bullet can travel,” Pickle said. “This was a relatively easy shot, and Donald Trump may have been the luckiest man in the world yesterday. He survived by about half an inch."

Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi told USA TODAY on Sunday that he was traveling to Milwaukee, the site of the upcoming Republican National Convention, and would not be in a position to talk until later in the day. At 2 p.m., he said he was still "unable to respond" to claims that the Secret Service made mistakes in allowing the shooter to gain such a close vantage point.

Three hours later, another senior Secret Service official also declined to comment on whether the agency failed in its mission to protect Trump at the Saturday rally.

“Any questions regarding yesterday’s event can be directed to our public affairs office out of DC,” said Audrey Gibson-Cicchino, the agency’s coordinator for the upcoming Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Speaking at a news conference there, she said she could only discuss convention security measures.

In a news conference early Sunday morning, the FBI special agent in charge of the Pittsburgh field office, Kevin Rojek, had confirmed that the FBI is leading the investigation into the shooting and that it “is our assessment at this time” that law enforcement did not know the shooter was on the roof until he began firing.

“It is surprising,” Rojek said when asked about the gunman’s close vicinity to the rally. He said that proximity is among the details that will be a focus of the investigation. Rojek added: “The Secret Service really needs to answer that question. They conduct the initial site survey.”

At the midnight news conference, State Police Lt. Col. George Bivens had deferred questions about whether there was anything about the venue that made it particularly difficult to secure by the Secret Service, which did not have representatives at the televised briefing.

Bivens also said he would not speculate on “how close a call” it was for Trump.

But Bivens confirmed that law enforcement is following up on a “number of suspicious occurrences” including accounts from witnesses who said they tried to flag police about the activity of a person outside the rally moments before the shooting.

Calls for answers from both sides of the aisle

Sen. James Comer, a Kentucky Republican who chairs the House Oversight committee, was one of several lawmakers who called for an immediate investigation into potential lapses by the Secret Service.

Comer said in a statement that he has already contacted the Service Service for a briefing and he called on Cheatle – the director – to testify about what went wrong. His committee will send a formal invitation soon, Comer said.

"Political violence in all forms is unamerican and unacceptable," Comer said in his statement. "There are many questions and Americans demand answers."

Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat, also called morning for an urgent investigation to explain what happened. Several hours later, however, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, also a Democrat, sidestepped a question at his own news conference about potential Secret Service failures in preventing the shooter from climbing atop the building.

"I'm not getting into ... any questions regarding the ongoing investigation," Shapiro said. "I trust that the FBI and the Pennsylvania State Police will keep you posted throughout the day and in the days ahead as to their investigations."

Contributing: Melissa Brown, a state political reporter at The Tennessean in Nashville, Tennessee.

Advertisement

Chaos and Confusion: Tech Outage Causes Disruptions Worldwide

Airlines, hospitals and people’s computers were affected after CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, sent out a flawed software update.

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By Adam Satariano ,  Paul Mozur ,  Kate Conger and Sheera Frenkel

• July 19, 2024

Airlines grounded flights. Operators of 911 lines could not respond to emergencies. Hospitals canceled surgeries. Retailers closed for the day. And the actions all traced back to a batch of bad computer code.

A flawed software update sent out by a little-known cybersecurity company caused chaos and disruption around the world on Friday. The company, CrowdStrike , based in Austin, Texas, makes software used by multinational corporations, government agencies and scores of other organizations to protect against hackers and online intruders.

But when CrowdStrike sent its update on Thursday to its customers that run Microsoft Windows software, computers began to crash.

The fallout, which was immediate and inescapable, highlighted the brittleness of global technology infrastructure. The world has become reliant on Microsoft and a handful of cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike. So when a single flawed piece of software is released over the internet, it can almost instantly damage countless companies and organizations that depend on the technology as part of everyday business.

“This is a very, very uncomfortable illustration of the fragility of the world’s core internet infrastructure,” said Ciaran Martin, the former chief executive of Britain’s National Cyber Security Center and a professor at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University.

A cyberattack did not cause the widespread outage, but the effects on Friday showed how devastating the damage can be when a main artery of the global technology system is disrupted. It raised broader questions about CrowdStrike’s testing processes and what repercussions such software firms should face when flaws in their code cause major disruptions.

How a Software Update Crashed Computers Around the World

Here’s a visual explanation for how a faulty software update crippled machines.

How the airline cancellations rippled around the world (and across time zones)

Share of canceled flights at 25 airports on Friday

50% of flights

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CrowdStrike’s stock price so far this year

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McKinsey technology trends outlook 2024

Despite challenging overall market conditions in 2023, continuing investments in frontier technologies promise substantial future growth in enterprise adoption. Generative AI (gen AI) has been a standout trend since 2022, with the extraordinary uptick in interest and investment in this technology unlocking innovative possibilities across interconnected trends such as robotics and immersive reality. While the macroeconomic environment with elevated interest rates has affected equity capital investment and hiring, underlying indicators—including optimism, innovation, and longer-term talent needs—reflect a positive long-term trajectory in the 15 technology trends we analyzed.

What’s new in this year’s analysis

This year, we reflected the shifts in the technology landscape with two changes on the list of trends: digital trust and cybersecurity (integrating what we had previously described as Web3 and trust architectures) and the future of robotics. Robotics technologies’ synergy with AI is paving the way for groundbreaking innovations and operational shifts across the economic and workforce landscapes. We also deployed a survey to measure adoption levels across trends.

These are among the findings in the latest McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook, in which the McKinsey Technology Council  identified the most significant technology trends unfolding today. This research is intended to help executives plan ahead by developing an understanding of potential use cases, sources of value, adoption drivers, and the critical skills needed to bring these opportunities to fruition.

Our analysis examines quantitative measures of interest, innovation, investment, and talent to gauge the momentum of each trend. Recognizing the long-term nature and interdependence of these trends, we also delve into the underlying technologies, uncertainties, and questions surrounding each trend. (For more about new developments in our research, please see the sidebar “What’s new in this year’s analysis”; for more about the research itself, please see the sidebar “Research methodology.”)

New and notable

The two trends that stood out in 2023 were gen AI and electrification and renewables. Gen AI has seen a spike of almost 700 percent in Google searches from 2022 to 2023, along with a notable jump in job postings and investments. The pace of technology innovation has been remarkable. Over the course of 2023 and 2024, the size of the prompts that large language models (LLMs) can process, known as “context windows,” spiked from 100,000 to two million tokens. This is roughly the difference between adding one research paper to a model prompt and adding about 20 novels to it. And the modalities that gen AI can process have continued to increase, from text summarization and image generation to advanced capabilities in video, images, audio, and text. This has catalyzed a surge in investments and innovation aimed at advancing more powerful and efficient computing systems. The large foundation models that power generative AI, such as LLMs, are being integrated into various enterprise software tools and are also being employed for diverse purposes such as powering customer-facing chatbots, generating ad campaigns, accelerating drug discovery, and more. We expect this expansion to continue, pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities. Senior leaders’ awareness of gen AI innovation has increased interest, investment, and innovation in AI technologies, such as robotics, which is a new addition to our trends analysis this year. Advancements in AI are ushering in a new era of more capable robots, spurring greater innovation and a wider range of deployments.

Research methodology

To assess the development of each technology trend, our team collected data on five tangible measures of activity: search engine queries, news publications, patents, research publications, and investment. For each measure, we used a defined set of data sources to find occurrences of keywords associated with each of the 15 trends, screened those occurrences for valid mentions of activity, and indexed the resulting numbers of mentions on a 0–1 scoring scale that is relative to the trends studied. The innovation score combines the patents and research scores; the interest score combines the news and search scores. (While we recognize that an interest score can be inflated by deliberate efforts to stimulate news and search activity, we believe that each score fairly reflects the extent of discussion and debate about a given trend.) Investment measures the flows of funding from the capital markets into companies linked with the trend.

Data sources for the scores include the following:

• Patents. Data on patent filings are sourced from Google Patents, where the data highlight the number of granted patents.
• Research. Data on research publications are sourced from Lens.
• News. Data on news publications are sourced from Factiva.
• Searches. Data on search engine queries are sourced from Google Trends.
• Investment. Data on private-market and public-market capital raises (venture capital and corporate and strategic M&A, including joint ventures), private equity (including buyouts and private investment in public equity), and public investments (including IPOs) are sourced from PitchBook.
• Talent demand. Number of job postings is sourced from McKinsey’s proprietary Organizational Data Platform, which stores licensed, de-identified data on professional profiles and job postings. Data are drawn primarily from English-speaking countries.

In addition, we updated the selection and definition of trends from last year’s report to reflect the evolution of technology trends:

• The future of robotics trend was added since last year’s publication.
• Data sources and keywords were updated. For data on the future of space technologies investments, we used research from McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice.

Finally, we used survey data to calculate the enterprise-wide adoption scores for each trend:

• Survey scope. The survey included approximately 1,000 respondents from 50 countries.
• Geographical coverage. Survey representation was balanced across Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America.
• Company size. Size categories, based on annual revenue, included small companies ($10 million to $50 million), medium-size companies ($50 million to $1 billion), and large companies (greater than $1 billion).
• Respondent profile. The survey was targeted to senior-level professionals knowledgeable in technology, who reported their perception of the extent to which their organizations were using the technologies.
• Survey method. The survey was conducted online to enhance reach and accessibility.
• Question types. The survey employed multiple-choice and open-ended questions for comprehensive insights.
• 1: Frontier innovation. This technology is still nascent, with few organizations investing in or applying it. It is largely untested and unproven in a business context.
• 2: Experimentation. Organizations are testing the functionality and viability of the technology with a small-scale prototype, typically done without a strong focus on a near-term ROI. Few companies are scaling or have fully scaled the technology.
• 3: Piloting. Organizations are implementing the technology for the first few business use cases. It may be used in pilot projects or limited deployments to test its feasibility and effectiveness.
• 4: Scaling. Organizations are in the process of scaling the deployment and adoption of the technology across the enterprise. The technology is being scaled by a significant number of companies.
• 5: Fully scaled. Organizations have fully deployed and integrated the technology across the enterprise. It has become the standard and is being used at a large scale as companies have recognized the value and benefits of the technology.

Electrification and renewables was the other trend that bucked the economic headwinds, posting the highest investment and interest scores among all the trends we evaluated. Job postings for this sector also showed a modest increase.

Although many trends faced declines in investment and hiring in 2023, the long-term outlook remains positive. This optimism is supported by the continued longer-term growth in job postings for the analyzed trends (up 8 percent from 2021 to 2023) and enterprises’ continued innovation and heightened interest in harnessing these technologies, particularly for future growth.

Future frontiers: Navigating the next wave of tech innovations

Join Lareina Yee and Roger Roberts on Tuesday, July 30, at 12:30 p.m. EDT/6:30 p.m. CET as they discuss the future of these technological trends, the factors that will fuel their growth, and strategies for investing in them through 2024 and beyond.

In 2023, technology equity investments fell by 30 to 40 percent to approximately $570 billion due to rising financing costs and a cautious near-term growth outlook, prompting investors to favor technologies with strong revenue and margin potential. This approach aligns with the strategic perspective leading companies are adopting, in which they recognize that fully adopting and scaling cutting-edge technologies is a long-term endeavor. This recognition is evident when companies diversify their investments across a portfolio of several technologies, selectively intensifying their focus on areas most likely to push technological boundaries forward. While many technologies have maintained cautious investment profiles over the past year, gen AI saw a sevenfold increase in investments, driven by substantial advancements in text, image, and video generation.

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Despite an overall downturn in private equity investment, the pace of innovation has not slowed. Innovation has accelerated in the three trends that are part of the “AI revolution” group: gen AI, applied AI, and industrializing machine learning. Gen AI creates new content from unstructured data (such as text and images), applied AI leverages machine learning models for analytical and predictive tasks, and industrializing machine learning accelerates and derisks the development of machine learning solutions. Applied AI and industrializing machine learning, boosted by the widening interest in gen AI, have seen the most significant uptick in innovation, reflected in the surge in publications and patents from 2022 to 2023. Meanwhile, electrification and renewable-energy technologies continue to capture high interest, reflected in news mentions and web searches. Their popularity is fueled by a surge in global renewable capacity, their crucial roles in global decarbonization efforts, and heightened energy security needs amid geopolitical tensions and energy crises.

The talent environment largely echoed the investment picture in tech trends in 2023. The technology sector faced significant layoffs, particularly among large technology companies, with job postings related to the tech trends we studied declining by 26 percent—a steeper drop than the 17 percent decrease in global job postings overall. The greater decline in demand for tech-trends-related talent may have been fueled by technology companies’ cost reduction efforts amid decreasing revenue growth projections. Despite this reduction, the trends with robust investment and innovation, such as gen AI, not only maintained but also increased their job postings, reflecting a strong demand for new and advanced skills. Electrification and renewables was the other trend that saw positive job growth, partially due to public sector support for infrastructure spending.

Even with the short-term vicissitudes in talent demand, our analysis of 4.3 million job postings across our 15 tech trends underscored a wide skills gap. Compared with the global average, fewer than half the number of potential candidates have the high-demand tech skills specified in job postings. Despite the year-on-year decreases for job postings in many trends from 2022 to 2023, the number of tech-related job postings in 2023 still represented an 8 percent increase from 2021, suggesting the potential for longer-term growth (Exhibit 1).

Enterprise technology adoption momentum

The trajectory of enterprise technology adoption is often described as an S-curve that traces the following pattern: technical innovation and exploration, experimenting with the technology, initial pilots in the business, scaling the impact throughout the business, and eventual fully scaled adoption (Exhibit 2). This pattern is evident in this year’s survey analysis of enterprise adoption conducted across our 15 technologies. Adoption levels vary across different industries and company sizes, as does the perceived progress toward adoption.

Image description:

A graph depicts the adoption curve of technology trends, scored from 1 to 5, where 1 represents frontier innovation, located at the bottom left corner of the curve; 2 is experimenting, located slightly above frontier innovation; 3 is piloting, which follows the upward trajectory of the curve; 4 is scaling, marked by a vertical ascent as adoption increases; and 5 is fully scaled, positioned at the top of the curve, indicating near-complete adoption.

In 2023, the trends are positioned along the adoption curve as follows: future of space technologies and quantum technologies are at the frontier innovation stage; climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables, future of bioengineering, future of mobility, future of robotics, and immersive-reality technologies are at the experimenting stage; digital trust and cybersecurity, electrification and renewables, industrializing machine learning, and next-gen software development are at the piloting stage; and advanced connectivity, applied AI, cloud and edge computing, and generative AI are at the scaling stage.

Footnote: Trend is more relevant to certain industries, resulting in lower overall adoption across industries compared with adoption within relevant industries.

Source: McKinsey technology adoption survey data

End of image description.

We see that the technologies in the S-curve’s early stages of innovation and experimenting are either on the leading edge of progress, such as quantum technologies and robotics, or are more relevant to a specific set of industries, such as bioengineering and space. Factors that could affect the adoption of these technologies include high costs, specialized applications, and balancing the breadth of technology investments against focusing on a select few that may offer substantial first-mover advantages.

As technologies gain traction and move beyond experimenting, adoption rates start accelerating, and companies invest more in piloting and scaling. We see this shift in a number of trends, such as next-generation software development and electrification. Gen AI’s rapid advancement leads among trends analyzed, about a quarter of respondents self-reporting that they are scaling its use. More mature technologies, like cloud and edge computing and advanced connectivity, continued their rapid pace of adoption, serving as enablers for the adoption of other emerging technologies as well (Exhibit 3).

A segmented bar graph shows the adoption levels of tech trends in 2023 as a percentage of respondents. The trends are divided into 5 segments, comprising 100%: fully scaled, scaling, piloting, experimenting, and not investing. The trends are arranged based on the combined percentage sum of fully scaled and scaling shares. Listed from highest to lowest, these combined percentages are as follows:

• cloud and edge computing at 48%
• advanced connectivity at 37%
• generative AI at 36%
• applied AI at 35%
• next-generation software development at 31%
• digital trust and cybersecurity at 30%
• electrification and renewables at 28%
• industrializing machine learning at 27%
• future of mobility at 21%
• climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables at 20%
• immersive-reality technologies at 19%
• future of bioengineering at 18%
• future of robotics at 18%
• quantum technologies at 15%
• future of space technologies at 15%

The process of scaling technology adoption also requires a conducive external ecosystem where user trust and readiness, business model economics, regulatory environments, and talent availability play crucial roles. Since these ecosystem factors vary by geography and industry, we see different adoption scenarios playing out. For instance, while the leading banks in Latin America are on par with their North American counterparts in deploying gen AI use cases, the adoption of robotics in manufacturing sectors varies significantly due to differing labor costs affecting the business case for automation.

As executives navigate these complexities, they should align their long-term technology adoption strategies with both their internal capacities and the external ecosystem conditions to ensure the successful integration of new technologies into their business models. Executives should monitor ecosystem conditions that can affect their prioritized use cases to make decisions about the appropriate investment levels while navigating uncertainties and budgetary constraints on the way to full adoption (see the “Adoption developments across the globe” sections within each trend or particular use cases therein that executives should monitor). Across the board, leaders who take a long-term view—building up their talent, testing and learning where impact can be found, and reimagining the businesses for the future—can potentially break out ahead of the pack.

Lareina Yee is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Bay Area office, where Michael Chui  is a McKinsey Global Institute partner, Roger Roberts  is a partner, and Mena Issler is an associate partner.

The authors wish to thank the following McKinsey colleagues for their contributions to this research: Aakanksha Srinivasan, Ahsan Saeed, Alex Arutyunyants, Alex Singla, Alex Zhang, Alizee Acket-Goemaere, An Yan, Anass Bensrhir, Andrea Del Miglio, Andreas Breiter, Ani Kelkar, Anna Massey, Anna Orthofer, Arjit Mehta, Arjita Bhan, Asaf Somekh, Begum Ortaoglu, Benjamin Braverman, Bharat Bahl, Bharath Aiyer, Bhargs Srivathsan, Brian Constantine, Brooke Stokes, Bryan Richardson, Carlo Giovine, Celine Crenshaw, Daniel Herde, Daniel Wallance, David Harvey, Delphine Zurkiya, Diego Hernandez Diaz, Douglas Merrill, Elisa Becker-Foss, Emma Parry, Eric Hazan, Erika Stanzl, Everett Santana, Giacomo Gatto, Grace W Chen, Hamza Khan, Harshit Jain, Helen Wu, Henning Soller, Ian de Bode, Jackson Pentz, Jeffrey Caso, Jesse Klempner, Jim Boehm, Joshua Katz, Julia Perry, Julian Sevillano, Justin Greis, Kersten Heineke, Kitti Lakner, Kristen Jennings, Liz Grennan, Luke Thomas, Maria Pogosyan, Mark Patel, Martin Harrysson, Martin Wrulich, Martina Gschwendtner, Massimo Mazza, Matej Macak, Matt Higginson, Matt Linderman, Matteo Cutrera, Mellen Masea, Michiel Nivard, Mike Westover, Musa Bilal, Nicolas Bellemans, Noah Furlonge-Walker, Obi Ezekoye, Paolo Spranzi, Pepe Cafferata, Robin Riedel, Ryan Brukardt, Samuel Musmanno, Santiago Comella-Dorda, Sebastian Mayer, Shakeel Kalidas, Sharmila Bhide, Stephen Xu, Tanmay Bhatnagar, Thomas Hundertmark, Tinan Goli, Tom Brennan, Tom Levin-Reid, Tony Hansen, Vinayak HV, Yaron Haviv, Yvonne Ferrier, and Zina Cole.

They also wish to thank the external members of the McKinsey Technology Council for their insights and perspectives, including Ajay Agrawal, Azeem Azhar, Ben Lorica, Benedict Evans, John Martinis, and Jordan Jacobs.

Special thanks to McKinsey Global Publishing colleagues Barr Seitz, Diane Rice, Kanika Punwani, Katie Shearer, LaShon Malone, Mary Gayen, Nayomi Chibana, Richard Johnson, Stephen Landau, and Victor Cuevas for making this interactive come alive.

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