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What’s systems thinking? The secret to a future-minded organization

I’ve been working on widening my aperture. What does that mean? In photography, zooming out. Seeing the forest for the trees.

As a writer, I find that I often get bogged down in the details. Sometimes, I look too closely at a topic or an idea without considering the complexities, relationships, and implications. 

It’s easy to see things when we’re close to them. But it takes a concerted effort to step back and look at the bigger picture. It requires a different type of mindset, strategic thinking, and perspective on problem-solving .  

We probably can all think of people who approach the world as system thinkers. You probably can name a few off the top of your head: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Steve Jobs, Stacey Abrams, Bill Gates, Malala Yousafzai, Barack Obama, and many more.

They’re big-picture thinkers , dreamers, and strategists. They all share curiosity, courage , and the willingness to challenge the status quo. They see the problem at hand in a network of complex systems, and they aren’t afraid to prod at the larger ecosystem. Systems thinking might sound like a clunky, corporate jargon phrase. And in some ways, by definition, it is complex. But at its heart, systems thinking is about seeing things through a wide lens, recognizing how interconnected we are, and acting with empathy and innovation.

Actions have consequences, not always the ones intended. While it can be about solving wicked problems, systems thinking can also be about getting stuff done in ways that are beneficial to the whole organization, not just your little piece of it. A system can be a company, a school, a community, a region, or even a family.

In the context of today’s world of work, systems thinking can help you to be more strategic and better prepared for what the future has in store. Applying systems thinking to our current climate can help us look ahead with a more strategic lens. 

Especially when things are constantly changing — and uncertainty looms overhead — systems thinking helps organizations be better prepared to solve complex problems. Let’s break down what systems thinking is. We’ll also talk about what it takes to become a systems thinker — and how applying systems thinking can help your organization thrive. 

What is systems thinking?

Before we go any further, let’s pause to understand what we mean by systems thinking . 

Systems thinking is the ability that an individual or organization has to solve tough problems. With systems thinking, individuals use strategic, big-picture thinking to make sense of a complex system. 

For example, at BetterUp we talk about how optimizing for the company typically means sub-optimizing for individual teams. But it holds true for any large organization.

Without systems thinking, a team might set its goals very narrowly and pursue them. Sometimes, those pursuits result in strategies that are detrimental to another team or the bigger company objectives.

Companies that want to be more than the sum of their parts need managers who can think systemically and with enough transparency that people can understand the system.

Systems thinking is a holistic approach to problem-solving. It’s a way of looking at how systems work, what that system’s perspective is, and how to better improve system behaviors. 

The systems thinking methodology isn’t necessarily formulaic. It takes some understanding of key concepts to be able to take a systems approach to today’s most challenging problems. 

Systems thinking in leadership 

As we mentioned, many of today’s most notable strategic leaders lean on their systems thinking skills to drive change. It requires a deep understanding of mental models with the goal of improving them to optimize organizational performance . And while you might not know it, many leaders have applied system thinking tools to help come to new conclusions. 

Systems thinking in leadership, however, isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach. Every problem is different with its own set of system dynamics. Let’s break down what some of this could look like in leadership. 

• A future-mindedness. At BetterUp, we’ve studied future-minded leaders . It’s the idea that a leader looks ahead with a sense of pragmatism and optimism. Leaders who use the future-minded lens say they spend 147% more time planning in their lives and 159% more time planning in their work than those with low future-minded leadership skills. The result of all this planning? Future-minded leaders have higher-performing teams. increased agility, team engagement, innovation, risk-taking, performance, and resilience.  

• Strategy and planning. As you could’ve guessed, strategic thinking and strategic planning are big components of adopting a systems perspective. Leaders are able to zoom out to see the whole system, then zoom in to see how the system works. 
• A growth mindset. If we really strip down systems thinking, it’s about problem-solving. This means leaders don’t know everything. They need to learn — and be willing to learn — new things. Leaders who adopt a growth mindset are better equipped to see how the system works because of this perspective. 
• The willingness to be wrong. We’ve probably all had managers who are unwilling to be wrong. Even if the data and science back it up, there’s some excuse as to why their theory, strategy, or process will still work. It’s a fixed mindset that won’t let go. But with system thinkers in leadership, they’re willing to be wrong. They can see when a systems theory isn’t working. And they embrace that vulnerability of admitting they need to re-think what they originally thought. 

“We learn more from people who challenge our thought process than those who affirm our conclusions. Strong leaders engage their critics and make themselves stronger. Weak leaders silence their critics and make themselves weaker. This reaction isn’t limited to people in power. Although we might be on board with the principle, in practice we often miss out on the value of a challenge network.”  Adam Grant, BetterUp Science Board Member, organizational psychologist, author, Think Again

What are examples of systems thinking?

To better understand systems thinking, let’s look at these three examples. Each example demonstrates the innovation that arises when you see the potential for a whole new board game rather than just swapping out one piece of the puzzle.

• Smartphones. I grew up in a house where phones were plugged into the wall and computers took over phone lines. When I wanted to call a friend, I dragged the landline — cord still plugged in — into my bedroom. If I wanted to look something up on the internet, I had to make sure no one in my household was using the phone. Why? Well, because the internet required dialed-in access to the phone line. Fast forward a couple of decades and now, we have tiny, little computers that fit into our pockets. Smartphones allow you to access the internet virtually everywhere you go, so long as there’s a signal or a WiFi log-in. Smartphones didn’t come about just to change where and how we could make a phone call. They evolved because system thinkers like Steve Jobs anticipated how connectivity could change the bigger system of how we consume and interact. Systems thinkers see what could be instead of what is.
• Cryptocurrency. When is the last time you had cash in your wallet? If you’re like me, you rarely carry any cash anymore. Though just twenty years ago, I made sure I had at least $10 in cash with me at all times. But soon, the world evolved with plastic cards that somehow, became much more valuable than any number of bills you could carry in your wallet. Debit and credit cards replaced weekly bank withdrawals. But system thinkers took currency one step further: crypto . Money now moves in networks that securely transfer different types of digital property over the Internet. This technology reimagines how the world does business, but it also has implications for larger monetary, regulatory, and political systems.
• Renewable energy. With climate change , we’re living on the brink of irreversible damage. With global temperatures rising faster than before, system thinkers had to find a way to power the world that doesn’t harm the planet.  Enter: renewable energy. Renewable energy sources (like solar and wind power) have reimagined how we run businesses, travel, and even produce goods. This system-of-systems approach is helping to shape a low-carbon economy . According to Deloitte, slowing the accelerating pace at which the climate crisis is progressing requires overhauling how systems work. 

Push a little further on these examples and you might also see that each also shows the failure to fully imagine the impact on the broader systems they touch.

Smartphones and crypto-currency each have environmental effects, increasing demand for energy and rare materials. Shifts in demand can create new supply chains and new companies as well as shortages and power imbalances. Systems thinking is recognizing that there are no simple answers.

Complex adaptive systems are just that: adaptive. They’re dynamic systems that hinge on feedback loops, innovation, and collaboration . And it’s with systems thinking that we’re able to evolve and innovate to find better solutions to today’s modern challenges. 

6 important concepts of systems thinking

For your organization, adopting concepts of systems thinking can help your business stay a step ahead. Especially in a fast-changing world, it’s critical that organizations stay agile and strategic to stay relevant. Here are six important concepts of systems thinking to help your organization stay resilient, agile, and relevant for the future. 

1. Systems mapping 

To understand how to solve a problem, you need to understand the ecosystems in which the problem lives. This is called systems mapping: getting to know the systems where a problem lives to better take it apart. 

Once you’ve mapped out the systems to help solve your problem, you can do some systems modeling to help understand how they’re connected. Which leads us to … 

2. Interconnectedness 

Interconnectedness. If we know anything about the world, it’s much smaller than we think. And after you’ve mapped out the systems for the problem you’re trying to solve, it’s time to figure out how the systems are connected. 

Sometimes, it may seem nonlinear or non-consequential. But if you dig deep enough, you’ll likely find some fibers connected between specific systems. 

For example, let’s use the pandemic. COVID-19 illuminated that our systems are more connected than we think. The impacts of COVID-19 disproportionately impacted communities of color and those of lower socioeconomic status. On its face, it might not have been readily apparent that a public health crisis would bleed into a different system, our economy. 

3. Synthesis 

This concept is synthesizing. Essentially, it’s making sense of things in the context of the problem you’re trying to solve. Opposite to analysis, synthesis usually is when you combine ideas or things to create something new. 

4. Emergence 

Let’s look at the solar system. We know that the solar system is a large, abstract, and complex system. It’s made up of planets, stars, galaxies, and many other things that we likely have yet to discover. 

But that’s the point of emergence: larger things emerge from smaller things. And when it comes to figuring out how synthesizing (or how you’re putting together different parts), emergence is critical. 

5. Feedback loops 

Feedback is critical to understanding if something is working. More importantly, feedback helps us understand when things aren’t working. 

If you’re adopting systems thinking in your organization, consider how you’re implementing feedback loops into the process. 

For example, let’s say you’re rolling out a new performance management software. Your HR teams are working with managers across the business to adequately train folks on how to use the platform. However, you realize that some managers are missing key milestones, like annual performance reviews . 

You set up some focus groups and office hours with your managers. In these sessions, you learn that your managers are missing out on performance review milestones in the system because they don’t know how to navigate the software. After gathering feedback , you realize that your organization requires more support. 

6. Causality 

Causality is the idea that there’s a cause and effect. It’s pretty simple: your actions impact the outcome. And so when you’re looking at a part of the system to solve, it’s important to test the cause and effect pieces of your systems. 

Let’s go back to our example from above. Because you’ve implemented regular feedback checkpoints within manager office hours, your HR team can better adjust their communication strategy. With help from the internal communication team, your HR team put together some guides on how to best use the software. This helped improve the number of “missed” performance reviews by 30%. 

How to apply systems thinking to the workplace

If you’re ready to apply systems thinking to the workplace, here are four things to keep in mind. 

Practice future-minded thinking 

Future-mindedness can keep organizations prepared for the future. Of course, we know the future is unknown. Especially now, there’s plenty of uncertainty and change looming. 

But with future-mindedness, your organization can be better equipped for what the future holds. Training your leaders to build their future-minded skills can help to keep your organization agile, resilient, and relevant for whatever the future holds. With future-mindedness , the impact speaks for itself: 

• Individual performance and well-being increases 
• Team performance increases with more agility, resilience, and risk-taking 
• Teams are more innovative, creative, and collaborative 
• Employee retention increases by 33% 

Promote a growth mindset 

Organizations, now more than ever, need to adopt a growth mindset. Learning is a lifelong journey for any person. Why wouldn’t organizations adopt the same sort of mindset? 

Think about how you can cultivate a growth mindset within your workplace. For example, how are you encouraging professional development ? Are you promoting from within and encouraging career mobility ? In what ways are you creating career advancement opportunities? Do your employees invest in upskilling or reskilling? 

Create space for feedback 

The success of any organization hinges on the ability to provide — and receive — feedback . At BetterUp, we see feedback as a gift. It’s a way to identify what’s working. But more importantly, it’s how we evolve and grow. 

Are you creating spaces for feedback? How are you keeping a pulse on your employees’ engagement ? Are you encouraging upward feedback or 360-degree feedback ? 

Use coaching 

We all need guidance. Especially when we’re tasked with solving some of the toughest problems, it helps to have an outside perspective. 

That’s where coaching comes in. With BetterUp, you can pair your employees with personalized support to help crack tough problems. A coach can help your employees tap into parts of themselves that they didn’t know existed. In turn, it will help improve your organizational effectiveness . 

Try BetterUp. Together, we can build a future better equipped to solve tomorrow’s problems.

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Madeline Miles

Madeline is a writer, communicator, and storyteller who is passionate about using words to help drive positive change. She holds a bachelor's in English Creative Writing and Communication Studies and lives in Denver, Colorado. In her spare time, she's usually somewhere outside (preferably in the mountains) — and enjoys poetry and fiction.

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Achieve Success with Systems Thinking in the Workplace

Senior Content Marketing Manager

March 14, 2024

Do you find yourself caught up in minutiae at work? There’s a time and a place for focusing on small, finicky details, but in today’s workplace, it helps to be able to see the entire picture. Everything is interconnected at work, so it’s helpful to see how all departments, tasks, projects, and systems sync up for success. 

That’s where systems thinking comes in. At its core, it’s a thinking framework professionals use for problem-solving. But systems thinking isn’t a methodology: It’s about fundamentally changing how your brain processes information. It encourages you to move beyond linear thinking and appreciate complex systems. With a systems thinking approach, you’ll better understand all parts of the system, how they interact, and how they affect your work. 🧠

Changing your brain is no small feat, but embracing systems thinking will make it 10 times easier to see complex interconnections in your work and get results. In this guide, we’ll explain systems thinking and its key elements. We’ll even show you a few of our favorite tools and techniques for rewiring your brain with the system model.

• What Is Systems Thinking?
• Causality 

Systems dynamics

Interconnectedness, leverage points, feedback loops, iterative learning, multi-dimensional thinking, use systems thinking tools like clickup, visualize everything, conduct quick analyses with templates, healthcare optimization, change management, environmental protections.

What Is Systems Thinking ?

Systems thinking is a holistic way to understand complex ideas and find solutions. Unlike traditional thinking, which focuses on individual elements of a system, systems thinking looks at everything as a whole and how parts of a system interact with each other. 

Peter Senge, an MIT lecturer and the author of “ The Fifth Discipline, ” popularized the idea of systems thinking. Instead of looking at individual components, he believed leaders should recognize the whole system and how all parts work together. With systems thinking, you can take a more holistic approach to see how subsystems interact within a larger system. 

For example, if you go to the doctor about a headache, they probably won’t treat just the headache. They’ll look at how all the systems in your body interact to see how those interactions might cause headaches.

Traditional, linear thinking would tell you to pop an aspirin for the headache. In contrast, a systems thinking approach might look at your diet, exercise, and underlying health conditions to understand why the headache is happening and (hopefully) stop it for good. 

This methodology goes beyond surface-level observations to explore deeper connections, causal relationships, and feedback mechanisms within systems. It accounts for the dynamic interactions that drive system behavior, making systems thinking a powerful tool for addressing complex, multifaceted problems.

It might sound like a woo-woo strategy, but systems thinking is powerful, especially in today’s go-go-go work environment. It has so many benefits, like: 

• Elegant solutions to messy problems: Traditional, linear ways of thinking don’t address the multi-dimensional nature of today’s challenges. Whether it’s healthcare access or climate change, linear approaches just won’t address the root cause of the problem. With systems thinking, you see the big picture and understand how different elements in a system influence each other—often in unexpected ways
• Better decision-making : Insight is worth its weight in gold, especially for managers. Systems thinking unveils how systems work, helping stakeholders recognize patterns, trends, and feedback loops that might go unnoticed with a more reductionist approach
• Speedy interventions: Systems thinkers don’t wait for project execution to fall through. They have almost a sixth sense that allows them to spot causalities that could affect the final outcome of a project. The result? Speedier fixes that prevent projects from veering off-course, which saves everyone time and money

Systems thinking is great for solving problems, but it isn’t a problem-solving tool. This is an essential mental model for navigating the complexities of both modern work and life. 

Understanding the Process of Systems Thinking

Unlike more reductionist approaches, which look at the outputs of each part of a system, systems thinkers look at everything at once. This approach transcends traditional problem-solving methods by focusing on patterns, relationships, and the broader context.

Causality  

Causality is an important part of systems thinking. If you have an eye for causality, you understand cause-and-effect relationships in a system. It’s about recognizing how one part of a system can influence another, often in weird or unexpected ways. Causality is such an important skill because it helps you identify the underlying causes of problems. Instead of simply addressing the symptoms of the problem, you stop the issue at its source. 

For example, let’s say you noticed a dip in employee productivity. Instead of punishing everyone by taking away Casual Fridays, you look at broader issues. You realize poor training, communication issues, and low pay are behind the performance lag. These problems are fixable, but it’s hard to recognize them if you have managerial tunnel vision. Systems thinking helps you identify the root cause of a problem for more effective, sustainable solutions. 🪴

Systems dynamics is another important component of systems thinking. In systems dynamics, you understand how systems change over time. Nothing lasts forever, after all. 

Systems dynamics study feedback loops and time delays that affect the entire system. Once you know how to spot these dynamics, it’s pretty easy to see how changing one part of the system has a ripple effect on the whole. 

For example, system dynamics makes it possible to predict how humans can reverse the effects of climate change. Reducing something harmful, like deforestation, has far-reaching effects on global weather patterns and biodiversity, affecting the dynamics of the entire system—and hopefully for the better. 

At work, you can use system dynamics to: 

• Predict trends
• Understand consumer behavior
• Future-proof your supply chain

The world isn’t slowing down any time soon, so it’s critical for up-and-coming managers to see the big picture. By modeling these dynamics before changing a system, you can make more informed decisions and adapt more quickly.

Key Elements and Characteristics of Systems Thinking

Several key elements differentiate systems thinking from other ways of thinking. While tunnel vision has a time and place, these characteristics distinguish systems thinkers from their more reductionist coworkers. 

Folks who’ve mastered systems thinking are great at identifying interconnected elements. They view problems as parts of a whole instead of isolating them into different components. It’s all about spotting interdependencies and how they affect the outcome. 

In systems thinking, a leverage point is an opportunity where a small adjustment can make big changes. It’s a key element of systems thinking because it not only identifies the cause of the problem but aims to fix its root causes. 🛠️

Emergence is the idea that a system has properties that its individual parts don’t. In other words, with systems thinking, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. It’s important to recognize how this emergence, or synergy, between every aspect of a project impacts the outcome. 

A feedback loop will reinforce bad habits or revolutionize a system’s behavior. Systems thinking requires understanding these loops so you can foresee the outcomes of different leverage points.

Of course, feedback loops can get complicated, so it’s not uncommon for the systems thinker to use tools like mind mapping and whiteboard software to visualize key concepts for complex problems.

One of the biggest hurdles to systems thinking is the idea of being “done” with a project. You’re never really done with systems thinking. Even when you initiate a new project , you’re constantly iterating systems, cycles, and processes to build something better. 

Instead of seeing it as a one-and-done strategy for solving all of your problems, look at systems thinking as an iterative learning process. You continuously test assumptions, learn from different outcomes, and change course based on what you learn. It might sound like a hassle, but the neverending process is crucial for dealing with complex, dynamic systems. 

Problems rarely happen in one dimension. For example, issues like employee retention aren’t just about employees leaving—they usually intersect with compensation, business operations , the work environment, and so many other factors.

Systems thinkers can consider all of these dimensions to see all sides of a problem. This type of thinking gives you a better understanding of the issue, helping you think of more robust solutions. 

Tools and Techniques for Effective Systems Thinking

Systems thinking is useful in the workplace, but changing your thoughts is no small feat. Fortunately, this change doesn’t have to happen overnight. Plus, plenty of techniques and tools are available to help you transition away from linear thinking and embrace a systems approach. Try these tools and techniques to visualize and analyze relationships within a system.

Systems thinking takes up a little more brain bandwidth than linear thinking. Fortunately, you can put everything on autopilot with a solution like ClickUp. Our all-in-one “everything” platform combines all of your favorite project management , automation, and analytics features into one solution. See all parts of your projects, people, profits, and more to understand how all parts contribute to the whole quickly. ✨

Don’t sweat it if you’re struggling to implement a systems theory mindset. Streamline everything with ClickUp features like: 

• Automations: Systems thinking requires big-picture thinking, so you don’t have time to handle finicky, time-consuming tasks. Use ClickUp Automations to spend less time on minutiae like task statuses, comments, and more
• Dashboards: ClickUp is the perfect work management tool with customizable workspaces and project management Dashboards for creating, setting, and implementing systems, processes, workflows , and more. View all of your most important metrics in ClickUp Dashboards to see a high-level view of your systems in real-time
• Integrations: Who’s got the time to flip between different platforms? ClickUp integrates with all of the tools you already use, bringing all of your favorite solutions into a single dashboard. That’s the very definition of systems thinking: synthesizing everything to make a whole that’s greater than the sum of its parts

Systems can get complicated fast. Instead of speaking in abstractions, clarify what you mean with simple diagrams, flowcharts , and other visuals. 📊

ClickUp Whiteboards are great for remote brainstorming sessions with your team, but they’re also perfect for visualizing big ideas and sharing them across your organization. Create causal loop diagrams to identify feedback loops, visualize common stories with systems archetypes, or use ClickUp Mind Maps to do systems mapping as a team—the sky’s the limit. 

ClickUp templates speed up systems thinking by giving you a readymade framework for conducting analyses in record time. Our Whiteboard templates are a shoo-in for the systems perspective, but we have templates for every system analysis under the sun.

For example, internal strengths and weaknesses and external opportunities and threats (SWOT) have a huge impact on any project. Systems thinkers use SWOT analyses to anticipate and remedy potential issues with their systems, looking at all parts of the project from a high-level view. 

You don’t need to create your own SWOT analysis, either. Use the ClickUp Personal SWOT Analysis template to create actionable goals based on systems thinking. 

Systems Thinking Examples

Look, we get it: Systems thinking still sounds a little abstract. Here are a few examples of systems thinking that show you how this thought process works in the real world. 

Healthcare is a pretty complex system with so many moving parts. To make sense of it all, providers use systems thinking to improve problems like hospital readmission rates. A systems thinker looks not only at the clinical factors, but also:

• Patient education
• Follow-up care
• Social support
• Hospital discharge processes

Understanding how all these factors play together can predict patient outcomes, helping providers create more integrated plans that keep patients out of the hospital.

Let’s say your company has a high employee turnover rate. Traditional, linear thinking would focus on improving your hiring practices, and maybe on increasing salaries. However, a systems thinking approach looks at more interconnected factors.

You might find out it isn’t an HR issue, but a problem with management styles, career development, or resource utilization . It isn’t an easy fix, but targeting the root cause of turnover will help your company keep more folks happy and engaged. 

Sustainability is a hot-button topic in so many communities, but fulfilling sustainability requirements is far from easy. Professionals use systems thinking to solve complex issues like plastic waste. Plastic bag bans might sound like an obvious solution, but that doesn’t solve the bigger problem. A systems approach would also look at: 

• Consumer behavior
• Business incentives
• Recycling facilities
• Eco-friendly alternatives

Understanding the interplay between these factors would reduce plastic waste from all angles—not just from plastic bags. 

Start Thinking in Systems With ClickUp

Most people are taught to think linearly. That’s not a bad thing! Linear thinking has upsides, especially if you need to focus on the small details. But systems thinkers see the bigger picture, zooming out to understand how even the most minute details interact with other project elements. 

Systems thinking isn’t easy, but you don’t have to rewire your brain overnight. Embracing an all-in-one work platform like ClickUp makes it a cinch to build the framework for systems thinking and reinforce it daily. 

See the magic of ClickUp firsthand: Create your free ClickUp Workspace now .

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The Six Systems Thinking Steps to Solve Complex Problems

A quick overview of common problem solving techniques indicates that most of these methods focus on the problem rather than the whole eco-system where the problem exists. Along with the challenges of global economy , problems turn out to be more complicated and sometimes awakening problems. Climate change, traffic problems, and organizational problems that have developed through the years are all complex problems that we shouldn’t look at the same way as simple or linear problems. Part of the problem of thinking about a complex problem is the way we approach it, which may contribute to making the problem even more complex. As stated by Albert Einstein, “The problems cannot be solved using the same level of thinking that created them.” Systems thinking tends to focus on the broader ecosystem rather than the problem itself.

Systems thinking was developed by Jay Forrester and members of the Society for Organizational Learning at MIT. The idea is described in his book, The Fifth Discipline , as follows: “Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static ‘snapshots.’” A common example of the systems thinking method is the life around us where multiple systems interact with each other and are affected by each other. This wide perspective of systems thinking promotes it to solve complex problems that are dependent on external factors. Below are some of the stations that system thinking may contribute to solve.

• Complex problems that involve different factors, which require understanding the big picture in order to be efficiently solved
• Situations that are affecting, are being affected by, or affect the surrounding systems
• Problems that have turned more complicated by previous attempts to solve them

Concepts of Systems Thinking

In order to understand systems thinking, a number of concepts should be highlighted in order to define the relation between the problem and the other elements in the system and how to observe this relation in order to reach an effective solution. These principles include the following.

• All systems are composed of interconnected parts, and changing one part affects the entire system, including other parts.
• The structure of a system determines its behavior, which means that the system depends on the connection between parts rather that the part themselves.
• System behavior is an emergent phenomenon. System behavior is hard to predict due its continuously changing, non-linear relations and its time delay. It can’t be predicted by simply inspecting its elements or structure.
• Feedback loops control a system’s major dynamic behavior. The feedback loop is a number of connections causing an output from one part to eventually influence input to that same part. The number of feedback loops are larger than the system parts, which contributes to increasing system complicity.
• Complex social systems exhibit counterintuitive behavior. Solving complex problems can’t be achieved through everyday problem solving methods. They can be solved only through analytical methods and tools. Solving complex problems can be achieved through systems thinking, a process that fits the problem, and system dynamics , which is an approach to model systems by emphasizing their feedback loops.

Systems Thinking in Six Steps

In their paper Six Steps to Thinking Systemically , Michael Goodman and Richard Karash introduced six steps to apply systems thinking principles while solving complex problems. These steps were part of their case study to Bijou Bottling company’s problem of getting their orders shipped on time.

Set 1: Tell the Story

The first step in solving the problem is to understand it, and this can be achieved through looking deeply at the whole system rather than individual parts. This step requires meeting with the stakeholders to share their vision about the situation. One of the common tools to build this understanding is to utilize Concept Maps, which are graphical tools used to represent the organization or a structure of knowledge. Concept Maps visually present the system’s elements, concept links, proposition statements, cross-links, and examples.

Step 2: Draw Behavior Over Time (BOT) Graphs

When thinking about a problem, we are influenced with the current situation that is reflected in our analysis, yet the problem follows a time dimension, which means that it should be tracked through the time. The Behavior Over Time graph draws a curve that presents a specific behavior (Y) through the time (X). This graph helps us to understanding whether or not the current solution is effective.

Step 3: Create a Focusing Statement

At this point, there should be a clear vision about the problem solving process, which is defined in the from of a statement that indicates the team’s target and why the problem occurs.

Step 4: Identify the Structure

After having clear vision about the problem through the proposed statement, the system structure should be described, including the behavior patterns. Building these patterns helps in understanding more about the problem, and it can be formed as a system archetype.

Step 5: Going Deeper into the Issues

After defining the problem and the system structure, this step tends to understand the underlying problems through clarifying four items: the purpose of the system (what we want), the mental models, the large system, and personal role in the situation.

Set 6: Plan an Intervention

The previously collected information is used to start the intervention phase, where modifications to the current problem relate parts to connections. This intervention attempts to reach the desirable behavior.

Practice Example of Systems Thinking

One of the direct examples of adopting the systems thinking method was presented by Daniel Aronson highlighting insects who caused damage crops. Traditional thinking to solve crop damage is to apply more pesticides to reduce the number of insects and subsequently reduce the crop damage. However, this solution solves the problem for a short term. In the long run, the problem isn’t truly solved, as the original insect eating the crops are controlling the population of another species of insect in the environment either by preying on it or competing with it. Subsequently, the crop damage increases again due to the increasing numbers of other insect species.

Observing the ecosystem that includes both the insects and the crops, systems thinking suggests exploring a solution that ensures reducing the crop damage in the long run without affecting the environmental balance, such as deploying the Integrated Pest Management that has proven success based on MIT and the National Academy of Science. This solution tends to control the number of an insect species by introducing its predators in the area.

Unlike everyday problems, complex problems can’t be solved using traditional problem solving methods due to the nature of the problems and their complexity. One of the theories that attempts to understand complex problems is systems thinking, which is defined by a number of characters. Six steps are to be used to explore and solve complex problems under the umbrella of systems thinking, which help us to observe and think in a whole eco-system rather than individual parts. Systems thinking can be deployed in multiple domains to solve organization problem, or global problems such as energy, pollution, and poverty.

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Dr Rafiq Elmansy

As an academic and author, I've had the privilege of shaping the design landscape. I teach design at the University of Leeds and am the Programme Leader for the MA Design, focusing on design thinking, design for health, and behavioural design. I've developed and taught several innovative programmes at Wrexham Glyndwr University, Northumbria University, and The American University in Cairo. I'm also a published book author and the proud founder of Designorate.com, a platform that has been instrumental in fostering design innovation. My expertise in design has been recognised by prestigious organizations. I'm a fellow of the Higher Education Academy (HEA), the Design Research Society (FDRS), and an Adobe Education Leader. Over the course of 20 years, I've had the privilege of working with esteemed clients such as the UN, World Bank, Adobe, and Schneider, contributing to their design strategies. For more than 12 years, I collaborated closely with the Adobe team, playing a key role in the development of many Adobe applications.

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3 thoughts on “ the six systems thinking steps to solve complex problems ”.

“Systems thinking was developed by Jay Forrester and members of the Society for Organizational Learning at MIT. The idea is described in his book, The Fifth Discipline, as follows:” Peter Senge is the author of The Fifth Discipline

Thank you so much Misi for the helpful information.

Thank you for the valuable information. I believe that systems thinking can be applied to every aspect of our lives. When you teach yourself to spot patterns, cycles, and loops instead of individuals elements. You see behind the scenes. Understand what actually needs addressing to move forward and make progress faster with less damage.

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So you have what appears to be an unsolvable problem on your hands. It’s an important issue that’s proven to be chronic, its recurrence has made it familiar enough to be identified with a known history, and many have unsuccessfully tried to solve it before.

What you have is a complex problem. Fortunately, a tested strategic approach already exists for solving complex problems - systems thinking .

What is Systems Thinking?

Founded in 1956 by MIT professor Jay Forrester, systems thinking is an approach to solving complex problems by understanding the systems that allow the problems to exist. You have a complex problem when:

• There’s no clear cut agreement on what the problem really is because the context it depends on evolves over time.
• It’s difficult to assess what the real causes are behind the problem due to many factors and feedback loops influencing each other.
• It’s not certain what the best steps are to solve the problem because there are many potential and / or partial solutions that may require incompatible and even conflicting steps.
• It’s hard to pinpoint who has sufficient - ownership, accountability, and authority to solve the problem, or if there even is just a single individual that suits the criteria — and it’s challenging to keep various stakeholders from getting in each others' way.

Where traditional analysis zooms into a smaller piece of a whole, systems thinking zooms out to view not just the whole, but other wholes that are affecting each other. Through this approach, systems thinking formalizes methods, tools, and patterns that allow practitioners to understand and manage complex settings and environments. This is why systems thinking is important — and effective — in solving complex problems.

3 Unique Systems Thinking Benefits

Like other established approaches to solving different kinds of problems, systems thinking can prove insightful and effective when used properly. Beyond those general benefits, systems thinking also presents some unique advantages:

Systems Thinking Allows Meaningful Failure

Failure is a discovery mechanism in properly applied systems thinking. It allows you to learn and improve the design or implementation of your solution. Failure in systems thinking can:

• Allow you to learn and adapt from small missteps quickly.
• Shows you the right option, or at least reduces the wrong ones, when it comes time to test hypotheses.
• Only temporarily hamper a system, not completely jeopardize it, in exchange for meaningful input.

Systems Thinking is Inclusive and Collaborative

Because of the holistic viewpoint taken in systems thinking, it inherently opens up levers for collaboration across involved parties. It isn’t just nice to gain input from diverse stakeholders with dynamically interrelated roles and interests — it's required.

Implemented properly, systems thinking encourages a culture of inclusiveness and collaboration to fix systemic problems that in turn benefit multiple stakeholder teams simultaneously.

Systems Thinking Provides Actionable Foresight

Part of why complex problems are hard to solve is because each involved party only ever sees their portion of the issue. Therefore, they typically execute solutions that resolve parts of the constantly evolving problem, which in the holistic view may even lead to other issues or complications.

Systems thinking allows you to predict how systems change and how steps within parts of the system will impact the whole. In applying systems thinking, you analyze causal structure and system dynamics, assess policies and scenarios, and test action steps and hypotheses to foresee consequences in order to synthesize long-term strategies.

Solving Complex Problems with System Thinking Frameworks and Methodologies

So how do you use systems thinking and its frameworks and methodologies in your organization? Systems thinking is not an instant panacea. Implementing its methods and frameworks isn’t like applying smart charts to raw data on spreadsheets. Those aren’t complex problems.

The implementation of systems thinking involves the application of frameworks that illustrate levels of thinking, and the use of tools to allow people to better understand the behaviors of systems.

The Iceberg Framework

At a primary level, systems thinking takes a holistic view to try and understand the connectedness and interactions of various system components, which themselves could be sub-systems. You can start by focusing on points that people gloss over, and attempt to explore these issues by focusing on aspects you don’t understand. The iceberg framework in systems thinking can guide you through this.

The iceberg framework illustrates four levels of thinking about a problem, arranged thus:

• “Events” - Events form the tip of the iceberg. Events that characterize a complex problem are the most visible, and therefore also the ones that appear to require being addressed in an immediate, reactionary way. This level of thinking is the “shallowest,” as typically events are only symptoms of underlying issues.
• “Patterns and trends” - Directly below the tip of the iceberg, the Patterns level is the first one hidden from view. Thinking deeper about events can lead problem solvers to more insight into patterns and trends that lead to them. Any approaches to solving patterns and trends will more effectively resolve events.
• “Underlying structure” - Even deeper below the surface, you’ll find there are underlying structures that influence the patterns and trends that lead to the visible symptoms of complex problems. This is where the interaction between system components produces the problematic patterns that in turn cause the visible events.
• “Mental models” - Finally, the bottom of the iceberg that props everything up are the assumptions, beliefs, and values held about a system culminating in the inadvertent creation and maintenance of underlying structures that result in unfavorable patterns within systems, which in turn bubble up to the surface as symptomatic events.

Once systems thinking practitioners understand this framework, they can employ tools and technology that allow human perception to genuinely digest the behavior of complex systems. At this level of systems thinking, qualitative tools generate knowledge to unravel complex problems.

Causal Loop Diagrams and System Archetypes

Some of the most common and flexible tools in systems thinking are causal loop diagrams that demonstrate system feedback structures. They show causal links between system components with directional cause and effect. Causal loop diagrams display the interconnectedness of system components to serve as a starting point for further discussion and policy formulation. Naturally, these diagrams can also help problem solvers identify in which parts of the system they can assert a positive influence to impact the entire loop favorably. In effect, these diagrams can help prevent poor decisions such as quick fixes.

Another important tool in systems thinking are the system archetypes that generally describe how complex systems work. They are generic models or templates representing broad situations to provide a high-level map of complex system behavior. Because they have been well-studied and mapped, these models can identify valuable areas where steps can be taken to resolve complex problems through interventions that are called leverages.

In general, there are two basic feedback loops (reinforcing and balancing) that identify nine system archetypes (or eight or ten, depending on who you ask):

• Balancing loops with delays
• Drifting goals
• Fixes that fail
• Growth and underinvestment
• Limits to success
• Shifting the burden
• Success to the successful
• Tragedy of the commons

Each of these archetypes are rarely sufficient models on their own — they merely offer insight into possible, common underlying problems. They can of course also be used as a basic structure upon which you can develop a more detailed model specific to your complex systems.

Adding Advanced Tools into Your Systems Thinking Toolbox

There are several dynamic and structural thinking tools in the systems thinking repertoire. Causal loop diagrams and system archetypes are dynamic thinking tools. Graphical function diagrams and policy structure diagrams are structural thinking tools. All of these can be mapped or used in computer-based tools like a management flight simulator or learning lab.

Of course, there are tools to what you can achieve with your toolbox.

Causal loop diagrams, for example, are static — they cannot describe the evolving properties of a system over time. To overcome such limitations, you need to simulate management issues quantitatively through system dynamics modeling.

Computer models of system dynamics allow you to explore time-dependent complex system behavior under different states. They essentially enable you to simulate how a causal loop diagram evolves as it is affected by different assumptions over time.

Solving Complex Problems in Project Management

So should you start learning about causal loop diagrams and begin shopping for the best systems dynamics computer modeling tools in the market as soon as you find a project management problem you can’t seem to solve? Don’t jump the gun.

You can implement systems thinking in inquiry and problem diagnosis to great effect without needing diagrams and computer models. Apply the concept of the iceberg model and you might already find you’re asking better questions than before, or you’re catching common quick fix solutions — like needing more budget or hiring more people — that don’t address deeper problems.

Once you realize that you’ve got a complex problem that requires an in-depth systems thinking approach, you can then explore your options with your team. The important part is to embrace the mental models that make systems thinking invaluable for understanding complex systems and resolving the complex problems that arise from them.

Solve Problems Using Systems Thinking in the Workplace

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• Playable 1.  Solve Problems Using Systems Thinking in the Workplace 45s After completing this video, you will be able to discover the subject areas that will be covered in this course. FREE ACCESS
• Playable 2.  What Is a System? 5m 33s After completing this video, you will be able to recognize characteristics of a system. FREE ACCESS
• Locked 3.  Systems Thinking versus Traditional Thinking 3m 12s After completing this video, you will be able to recognize what makes systems thinking different from traditional thinking. FREE ACCESS
• Locked 4.  Attributes of Systems Thinking 3m 58s After completing this video, you will be able to recognize attributes of systems thinking. FREE ACCESS
• Locked 5.  Systems Thinking Applied to Complex Problems 3m 14s After completing this video, you will be able to identify the elements of systems thinking used to solve a complex problem. FREE ACCESS
• Locked 6.  Systems Thinking Applied to Chronic Problems 2m 27s After completing this video, you will be able to identify the steps that can be used to solve a chronic problem. FREE ACCESS

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Systems Thinking: What, Why, When, Where, and How?

I f you’re reading The Systems Thinker®, you probably have at least a general sense of the benefits of applying systems thinking in the work-place. But even if you’re intrigued by the possibility of looking at business problems in new ways, you may not know how to go about actually using these principles and tools. The following tips are designed to get you started, whether you’re trying to introduce systems thinking in your company or attempting to implement the tools in an organization that already supports this approach.

What Does Systems Thinking Involve?

Tips for beginners.

• Study the archetypes.
• Practice frequently, using newspaper articles and the day’s headlines.
• Use systems thinking both at work and at home.
• Use systems thinking to gain insight into how others may see a system differently.
• Accept the limitations of being in-experienced; it may take you a while to become skilled at using the tools. The more practice, the quicker the process!
• Recognize that systems thinking is a lifelong practice

It’s important to remember that the term “systems thinking” can mean different things to different people. The discipline of systems thinking is more than just a collection of tools and methods – it’s also an underlying philosophy. Many beginners are attracted to the tools, such as causal loop diagrams and management flight simulators, in hopes that these tools will help them deal with persistent business problems. But systems thinking is also a sensitivity to the circular nature of the world we live in; an awareness of the role of structure in creating the conditions we face; a recognition that there are powerful laws of systems operating that we are unaware of; a realization that there are consequences to our actions that we are oblivious to. Systems thinking is also a diagnostic tool. As in the medical field, effective treatment follows thorough diagnosis. In this sense, systems thinking is a disciplined approach for examining problems more completely and accurately before acting. It allows us to ask better questions before jumping to conclusions. Systems thinking often involves moving from observing events or data, to identifying patterns of behavior overtime, to surfacing the underlying structures that drive those events and patterns. By understanding and changing structures that are not serving us well (including our mental models and perceptions), we can expand the choices available to us and create more satisfying, long-term solutions to chronic problems. In general, a systems thinking perspective requires curiosity, clarity, compassion, choice, and courage. This approach includes the willingness to see a situation more fully, to recognize that we are interrelated, to acknowledge that there are often multiple interventions to a problem, and to champion interventions that may not be popular (see “The Systems Orientation: From Curiosity to Courage,”V5N9).

Why Use Systems Thinking?

Systems thinking expands the range of choices available for solving a problem by broadening our thinking and helping us articulate problems in new and different ways. At the same time, the principles of systems thinking make us aware that there are no perfect solutions; the choices we make will have an impact on other parts of the system. By anticipating the impact of each trade-off, we can minimize its severity or even use it to our own advantage. Systems thinking therefore allows us to make informed choices. Systems thinking is also valuable for telling compelling stories that describe how a system works. For example, the practice of drawing causal loop diagrams forces a team to develop shared pictures, or stories, of a situation. The tools are effective vehicles for identifying, describing, and communicating your understanding of systems, particularly in groups.

When Should We Use Systems Thinking?

Problems that are ideal for a systems thinking intervention have the following characteristics:

• The issue is important.
• The problem is chronic, not a one-time event.
• The problem is familiar and has a known history.
• People have unsuccessfully tried to solve the problem before.

Where Should We Start?

When you begin to address an issue, avoid assigning blame (which is a common place for teams to start a discussion!). Instead, focus on items that people seem to be glossing over and try to arouse the group’s curiosity about the problem under discussion. To focus the conversation, ask, “What is it about this problem that we don’t understand?”

In addition, to get the full story out, emphasize the iceberg framework. Have the group describe the problem from all three angles: events, patterns, and structure (see “The Iceberg”). Finally, we often assume that everyone has the same picture of the past or knows the same information. It’s therefore important to get different perspectives in order to make sure that all viewpoints are represented and that solutions are accepted by the people who need to implement them. When investigating a problem, involve people from various departments or functional areas; you may be surprised to learn how different their mental models are from yours.

How Do We Use Systems Thinking Tools?

Causal Loop Diagrams. First, remember that less is better. Start small and simple; add more elements to the story as necessary. Show the story in parts. The number of elements in a loop should be determined by the needs of the story and of the people using the diagram. A simple description might be enough to stimulate dialogue and provide a new way to see a problem. In other situations, you may need more loops to clarify the causal relationships you are surfacing.

THE ICEBERG

The Archetypes. When using the archetypes, or the classic stories in systems thinking, keep it simple and general. If the group wants to learn more about an individual archetype, you can then go into more detail. Don’t try to “sell” the archetypes; people will learn more if they see for themselves the parallels between the archetypes and their own problems. You can, however, try to demystify the archetypes by relating them to common experiences we all share.

How Do We Know That We’ve “Got It”?

Here’s how you can tell you’ve gotten a handle on systems thinking:

• You’re asking different kinds of questions than you asked before.
• You’re hearing “catchphrases” that raise cautionary flags. For example, you find yourself refocusing the discussion when someone says, “The problem is we need more (sales staff, revenue).”
• You’re beginning to detect the archetypes and balancing and reinforcing processes in stories you hear or read.
• You’re surfacing mental models (both your own and those of others).
• You’re recognizing the leverage points for the classic systems stories.

Once you’ve started to use systems thinking for inquiry and diagnosis, you may want to move on to more complex ways to model systems-accumulator and flow diagrams, management flight simulators, or simulation software. Or you may find that adopting a systems thinking perspective and using causal loop diagrams provide enough insights to help you tackle problems. However you proceed, systems thinking will forever change the way you think about the world and approach issues. Keep in mind the tips we’ve listed here, and you’re on your way!

Michael Goodman is principal at Innovation Associates Organizational Learning

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Systems Thinking, Episode #1 What are Wicked Problems and Why Should I Care?

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In a series of blog posts, I want to share how you can use Systems Thinking to resolve complex problems. Systems Thinking aims at understanding and possibly solving complex problems. In this episode, I will focus on complex adaptive problems, also known as “Wicked Problems”.

Wicked problems are very difficult problems that don’t seem to have a simple solution. They're like an inextricable knot. When you've unravelled one thread of the problem, new problems keep popping up.

Some examples of wicked problems you probably know: 

• Global warming
• The boat refugees
• Traffic jams

In Scrum, we also experience Wicked Problems. Some examples of Wicked Problems Scrum Masters have to deal with:

• Your team keeps on rejecting items prepared by their Product Owner.
• Your team cannot finish the work in the Sprint for many Sprints in a row. 
• The system is so complex, every change we do creates many bugs. 
• How can you (the Scrum Master) tell the team to be on time without being a boss?
• The amount of meeting time keeps on growing since we started working with Scrum.

Key characteristics of Wicked Problems

They are not formulaic . This means you cannot describe them in a formula. This also implies there is no universal solution to these problems. Because of the complexity caused by the high number of unknown variables and relationships between them, we cannot describe solutions in the form of formulas, also known as "best practices". The behaviour of these problems is unpredictable.

They have fuzzy boundaries and are highly connected to other problems. There is no way we can discover a clear root cause for these problems. Consider “We continuously have these crazy deadlines”. This can be because the PO is not inclined to split items small enough. Or maybe the sales department is not connected to IT R&D and promises impossible software ideas to customers with a set deadline. Maybe crazy deadlines is a team perception problem. Or maybe management thinks the teams are lazy and feels the need to raise the bar as an attempt to increase output. Wicked Problems have a series of root causes. It makes sense to say that there is no single root cause, but there are many root causes.

Applied solutions lead to other problems (unintended consequences). What makes problems wicked is that there are delayed effects hidden in them. Humans are not very good at understanding behaviour with long delays between an event and a delayed response. We tend to focus on the short term and look for short term relationships between cause and effect.

A great example cited in many Systems Thinking literature is the story of the Borneo cats, aka Borneo cat drop. The problem on the island of Borneo started when they were hit by Malaria in the 1950s. The World Health Organisation (WHO) was called to rescue. The WHO sprayed the island with DDT to kill the malaria mosquitos. This effectively killed the mosquitos which made malaria become contained. However, there were many unknown side effects: The DDT also killed wasps that normally would have eaten larvae which now became a plague and destroyed the thatch roofs that started collapsing on peoples’ heads.

Over the next eight years, animals like geckos, feeding on insects, stored an increasing amount of DDT in their system without dying of it due to their slow metabolism. Geckos are eaten by cats, but because of the high concentration of DDT in the geckos, the cats started to die massively. With the cats gone, a rat plague emerged, killing the grain stores and caused the plague. The WHO decided to parachute cats across the island, which stabilised the situation. ( Read the story in detail) .

Wicked Problems involve multiple perspectives. Wicked problems contain many layers, with many angles to consider when studying them. For example, when teams are slow in delivering software, ways of looking at this problem might be the organisational structure (siloed component teams?), the value stream (what is our product?), the costs involved (organisational optimisation goals?), the team happiness, etc. 

Wicked problems are systems with complex behaviour. If we want to solve them or at least improve the situation, a behaviour change is required. We need to understand their behaviour to help us find an intervention that will make the system behave differently. We need to strive not to solve the problem, but to make intervention decisions that can improve the situation whilst limiting any possible negative consequence of the intervention. In other words: Solving wicked problems is often not possible, but understanding them is possible and beneficial. Let’s consider a homeless person. Giving a house to a homeless person is a possible solution. By studying the system, which is studying the dynamics that led this person to become homeless, might reveal that this person is mentally damaged and does not take any form of responsibility for his own life. Knowing this makes providing a house, not a solution that fixes the problem. This will only temporarily improve the situation or even make it worse in the long run. 

Finding the right intervention.

When we understand a problem and we think to know how to intervene, then it makes sense to do so. However, if the problem reoccurs later, we know that we did not address a true root cause. For example, we might have a problem with the number of bugs being so high that there is no time available to work on new functionality. Sending every developer to a "clean code" workshop is likely to be beneficial in the short term. However, it is also very likely the problem will reoccur at a later point in time. What happened? We delayed the “setpoint” of the system to show certain behaviour. We did not apply an intervention that changes the behaviour of the system permanently. This is because there are other factors at play that have a stronger causal relationship to the number of bugs. (For example, the pressure on the team applied by the Product Owner causing too much work in the Sprint and causing the developers to cut corners in the code which creates bugs.)

Unravelling Wicked Problems is not easy. To better understand them we need awareness of two capital concepts: Cognitive Biases and the Imperfection of Modelling. 

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases are filters that we apply unknowingly when processing information. It's like not being aware of the taste of water. Cognitive biases make us subjective: we interpret while we think we are being objective (observe). To be able to understand a Wicked Problem, we need to be aware of what our cognitive bias is in order to form an image in our brain that gets closer to reality. There are many cognitive biases. A very common bias is seeing what you want to see (confirmation bias) . The belief that we experience the real world directly is called reality bias . In fact, we experience the real world by relating it to our past experiences and preconceived assumptions. We continuously compare the world around us with our understanding of the world thus far.

Imperfection of Modeling

It is important to understand that humans use models in their brain to make sense of reality. Our brain likes easily understandable simplifications of reality. However, we need to be aware that models are handy but never correct . Even Einstein's best ideas were imperfect. His general relativity explains how the universe works in many situations, but it breaks down for black holes. That does not make relativity useless. The problem with models is that they pre-program (bias) our brain. You have a mental model about everything: lions, solar system, elevators, teams, Scrum, etc. They form your current understanding of those concepts. When you would study Scrum in-depth, you will adapt your mental model about Scrum. In summary, we need to be aware that models are both useful and imperfect. 

How can Systems Thinking help resolving Wicked Problems?

A key aspect of Systems Thinking is it makes us aware of how our thinking works. Mental models are a core building block in our thinking. We know that models are imperfect and that our mental model, our understanding of reality, is skewed by biases. This awareness in itself is already valuable as it reduces the impact of our assumptions in trying to understand Wicked Problems. 

Systems Thinking is different from analytical thinking. When we analyse, we take things apart to learn how things work. However, it is useless to take a British car apart if we want to understand why the British drive on the left side of the road. Where the answer to a question in analysis lies inside the subject we study, with Systems Thinking, it lies outside the subject. Systems Thinking is thinking inside out. 

Solving a Wicked Problem is Intervening in a complex system. If you face a very tough problem, it is a flaw to think it’s just one single problem. There are many factors, many interrelated problems with many root-causes to consider. To understand Wicked Problems, System Thinking advises to identify as many associated problems as possible and then bundle them in groups. Clustering or bundling problem groups and then labelling the groups will reveal first- and second-order effects in the system behaviour. Interventions on first-order effects are more likely to permanently change the behaviour of a system, i.e. solve the Wicked Problem.

Understanding Wicked Problems is useful for Scrum Masters when they cluster and unravel problems raised at the Sprint Retrospective, when they try to understand complex dynamics of the organizational system and when they try to understand what stops Scrum from functioning optimally.

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Taking a systems thinking approach to problem solving

Systems thinking is an approach that considers a situation or problem holistically and as part of an overall system which is more than the sum of its parts. Taking the big picture perspective, and looking more deeply at underpinnings, systems thinking seeks and offers long-term and fundamental solutions rather than quick fixes and surface change.

Whether in environmental science, organizational change management, or geopolitics, some problems are so large, so complicated and so enduring that it’s hard to know where to begin when seeking a solution.

A systems thinking approach might be the ideal way to tackle essentially systemic problems. Our article sets out the basic concepts and ideas.

What is systems thinking?

Systems thinking is an approach that views an issue or problem as part of a wider, dynamic system. It entails accepting the system as an entity in its own right rather than just the sum of its parts, as well as understanding how individual elements of a system influence one another.

When we consider the concepts of a car, or a human being we are using a systems thinking perspective. A car is not just a collection of nuts, bolts, panels and wheels. A human being is not simply an assembly of bones, muscles, organs and blood.

In a systems thinking approach, as well as the specific issue or problem in question, you must also look at its wider place in an overall system, the nature of relationships between that issue and other elements of the system, and the tensions and synergies that arise from the various elements and their interactions.

The history of systems thinking is itself innately complex, with roots in many important disciplines of the 20th century including biology, computing and data science. As a discipline, systems thinking is still evolving today.

How can systems thinking be applied to problem solving?

A systems thinking approach to problem solving recognizes the problem as part of a wider system and addresses the whole system in any solution rather than just the problem area.

A popular way of applying a systems thinking lens is to examine the issue from multiple perspectives, zooming out from single and visible elements to the bigger and broader picture (e.g. via considering individual events, and then the patterns, structures and mental models which give rise to them).

Systems thinking is best applied in fields where problems and solutions are both high in complexity. There are a number of characteristics that can make an issue particularly compatible with a systems thinking approach:

• The issue has high impact for many people.
• The issue is long-term or chronic rather than a one-off incident.
• There is no obvious solution or answer to the issue and previous attempts to solve it have failed.
• We have a good knowledge of the issue’s environment and history through which we can sensibly place it in a systems context.

If your problem does not have most of these characteristics, systems thinking analysis may not work well in solving it.

Areas where systems thinking is often useful include health, climate change, urban planning, transport or ecology.

What is an example of a systems thinking approach to problem solving?

A tool called the iceberg mode l can be useful in learning to examine issues from a systems thinking perspective. This model frames an issue as an iceberg floating in a wider sea, with one small section above the water and three large sections unseen below.

The very tip of the iceberg, visible above the waterline, shows discrete events or occurrences which are easily seen and understood. For example, successive failures of a political party to win national elections.

Beneath the waterline and invisible, lie deeper and longer-term trends or patterns of behavior. In our example this might be internal fighting in the political party which overshadows and obstructs its public campaigning and weakens its leadership and reputation.

Even deeper under the water we can find underlying causes and supporting structures which underpin the patterns and trends.

For our failing political party, this could mean party rules and processes which encourage internal conflict and division rather than resolving them, and put off the best potential candidates from standing for the party in elections.

The electoral system in the country may also be problematic or unfair, making the party so fearful and defensive against losing its remaining support base, that it has no energy or cash to campaign on a more positive agenda and win new voters.

Mental models

At the very base of the iceberg, deepest under the water, lie the mental models that allow the rest of the iceberg to persist in this shape. These include the assumptions, attitudes, beliefs and motivations which drive the behaviors, patterns and events seen further up in the iceberg.

In this case, this could be the belief amongst senior party figures that they’ve won in the past and can therefore win again someday by repeating old campaigns. Or a widespread attitude amongst activists in all party wings that with the right party leader, all internal problems will melt away and voter preferences will turn overnight.

When is a systems thinking approach not helpful?

If you are looking for a quick answer to a simple question, or an immediate response to a single event, then systems thinking may overcomplicate the process of solving your problem and provide you with more information than is helpful, and in slower time than you need.

For example, if a volcano erupts and the local area needs to be immediately evacuated, applying a thorough systems thinking approach to life in the vicinity of an active volcano is unlikely to result in a more efficient crisis response or save more lives. After the event, systems thinking might be more constructive when considering town rebuilding, local logistics and transport links.

In general, if a problem is short-term, narrow and/or linear, systems thinking may not be the right model of thinking to use.

A final word…

The biggest problems in the real world are rarely simple in nature and expecting a quick and simple solution to something like climate change or cancer would be naive.

If you’d like to know more about applying systems thinking in real life there are many online resources, books and courses you can access, including in specific fields (e.g. FutureLearn’s course on Understanding Systems Thinking in Healthcare ).

Whether you think of it as zooming out to the big picture while retaining a focus on the small, or looking deeper under the water at the full shape of the iceberg, systems thinking can be a powerful tool for finding solutions that recognize the interactions and interdependence of individual elements in the real world.

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Systems Thinking: How to Solve Problems So They Stay Solved

From production to customer service and marketing, organizations are made up of a series of interconnected parts. While each function may appear to operate efficiently on its own, a change in just one cog can throw the whole system out of whack. The problems that arise in interconnected organizations can be difficult to solve.

Systems thinking is problem-solving approach that examines the relationships between functions in an organization. Systems thinking is powerful because it enables you to predict the consequences of a potential change. This problem-solving method can also help you eliminate silos, see different viewpoints, and remain focused on the big picture.

Ultimately, systems thinking empowers you to solve problems so that they stay solved. Instead of offering quick-fix solutions that work only in the short term, systems thinking helps you make decisions that benefit your organization in the long run.

You will learn how to:

• Apply systems thinking in the workplace in ways that benefit you and your organization: encouraging innovation, learning from mistakes, and enhancing leadership and management skills.
• Apply the tools of systems thinking to solve a problem.
• Minimize the unintended consequences of major decisions.

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Workplace problem-solving examples: real scenarios, practical solutions.

• March 11, 2024

In today’s fast-paced and ever-changing work environment, problems are inevitable. From conflicts among employees to high levels of stress, workplace problems can significantly impact productivity and overall well-being. However, by developing the art of problem-solving and implementing practical solutions, organizations can effectively tackle these challenges and foster a positive work culture. In this article, we will delve into various workplace problem scenarios and explore strategies for resolution. By understanding common workplace problems and acquiring essential problem-solving skills, individuals and organizations can navigate these challenges with confidence and success.

Understanding Workplace Problems

Before we can effectively solve workplace problems , it is essential to gain a clear understanding of the issues at hand. Identifying common workplace problems is the first step toward finding practical solutions. By recognizing these challenges, organizations can develop targeted strategies and initiatives to address them.

Identifying Common Workplace Problems

One of the most common workplace problems is conflict. Whether it stems from differences in opinions, miscommunication, or personality clashes, conflict can disrupt collaboration and hinder productivity. It is important to note that conflict is a natural part of any workplace, as individuals with different backgrounds and perspectives come together to work towards a common goal. However, when conflict is not managed effectively, it can escalate and create a toxic work environment.

In addition to conflict, workplace stress and burnout pose significant challenges. High workloads, tight deadlines, and a lack of work-life balance can all contribute to employee stress and dissatisfaction. When employees are overwhelmed and exhausted, their performance and overall well-being are compromised. This not only affects the individuals directly, but it also has a ripple effect on the entire organization.

Another common workplace problem is poor communication. Ineffective communication can lead to misunderstandings, delays, and errors. It can also create a sense of confusion and frustration among employees. Clear and open communication is vital for successful collaboration and the smooth functioning of any organization.

The Impact of Workplace Problems on Productivity

Workplace problems can have a detrimental effect on productivity levels. When conflicts are left unresolved, they can create a tense work environment, leading to decreased employee motivation and engagement. The negative energy generated by unresolved conflicts can spread throughout the organization, affecting team dynamics and overall performance.

Similarly, high levels of stress and burnout can result in decreased productivity, as individuals may struggle to focus and perform optimally. When employees are constantly under pressure and overwhelmed, their ability to think creatively and problem-solve diminishes. This can lead to a decline in the quality of work produced and an increase in errors and inefficiencies.

Poor communication also hampers productivity. When information is not effectively shared or understood, it can lead to misunderstandings, delays, and rework. This not only wastes time and resources but also creates frustration and demotivation among employees.

Furthermore, workplace problems can negatively impact employee morale and job satisfaction. When individuals are constantly dealing with conflicts, stress, and poor communication, their overall job satisfaction and engagement suffer. This can result in higher turnover rates, as employees seek a healthier and more supportive work environment.

In conclusion, workplace problems such as conflict, stress, burnout, and poor communication can significantly hinder productivity and employee well-being. Organizations must address these issues promptly and proactively to create a positive and productive work atmosphere. By fostering open communication, providing support for stress management, and promoting conflict resolution strategies, organizations can create a work environment that encourages collaboration, innovation, and employee satisfaction.

The Art of Problem Solving in the Workplace

Now that we have a clear understanding of workplace problems, let’s explore the essential skills necessary for effective problem-solving in the workplace. By developing these skills and adopting a proactive approach, individuals can tackle problems head-on and find practical solutions.

Problem-solving in the workplace is a complex and multifaceted skill that requires a combination of analytical thinking, creativity, and effective communication. It goes beyond simply identifying problems and extends to finding innovative solutions that address the root causes.

Essential Problem-Solving Skills for the Workplace

To effectively solve workplace problems, individuals should possess a range of skills. These include strong analytical and critical thinking abilities, excellent communication and interpersonal skills, the ability to collaborate and work well in a team, and the capacity to adapt to change. By honing these skills, individuals can approach workplace problems with confidence and creativity.

Analytical and critical thinking skills are essential for problem-solving in the workplace. They involve the ability to gather and analyze relevant information, identify patterns and trends, and make logical connections. These skills enable individuals to break down complex problems into manageable components and develop effective strategies to solve them.

Effective communication and interpersonal skills are also crucial for problem-solving in the workplace. These skills enable individuals to clearly articulate their thoughts and ideas, actively listen to others, and collaborate effectively with colleagues. By fostering open and honest communication channels, individuals can better understand the root causes of problems and work towards finding practical solutions.

Collaboration and teamwork are essential for problem-solving in the workplace. By working together, individuals can leverage their diverse skills, knowledge, and perspectives to generate innovative solutions. Collaboration fosters a supportive and inclusive environment where everyone’s ideas are valued, leading to more effective problem-solving outcomes.

The ability to adapt to change is another important skill for problem-solving in the workplace. In today’s fast-paced and dynamic work environment, problems often arise due to changes in technology, processes, or market conditions. Individuals who can embrace change and adapt quickly are better equipped to find solutions that address the evolving needs of the organization.

The Role of Communication in Problem Solving

Communication is a key component of effective problem-solving in the workplace. By fostering open and honest communication channels, individuals can better understand the root causes of problems and work towards finding practical solutions. Active listening, clear and concise articulation of thoughts and ideas, and the ability to empathize are all valuable communication skills that facilitate problem-solving.

Active listening involves fully engaging with the speaker, paying attention to both verbal and non-verbal cues, and seeking clarification when necessary. By actively listening, individuals can gain a deeper understanding of the problem at hand and the perspectives of others involved. This understanding is crucial for developing comprehensive and effective solutions.

Clear and concise articulation of thoughts and ideas is essential for effective problem-solving communication. By expressing oneself clearly, individuals can ensure that their ideas are understood by others. This clarity helps to avoid misunderstandings and promotes effective collaboration.

Empathy is a valuable communication skill that plays a significant role in problem-solving. By putting oneself in the shoes of others and understanding their emotions and perspectives, individuals can build trust and rapport. This empathetic connection fosters a supportive and collaborative environment where everyone feels valued and motivated to contribute to finding solutions.

In conclusion, problem-solving in the workplace requires a combination of essential skills such as analytical thinking, effective communication, collaboration, and adaptability. By honing these skills and fostering open communication channels, individuals can approach workplace problems with confidence and creativity, leading to practical and innovative solutions.

Real Scenarios of Workplace Problems

Now, let’s explore some real scenarios of workplace problems and delve into strategies for resolution. By examining these practical examples, individuals can develop a deeper understanding of how to approach and solve workplace problems.

Conflict Resolution in the Workplace

Imagine a scenario where two team members have conflicting ideas on how to approach a project. The disagreement becomes heated, leading to a tense work environment. To resolve this conflict, it is crucial to encourage open dialogue between the team members. Facilitating a calm and respectful conversation can help uncover underlying concerns and find common ground. Collaboration and compromise are key in reaching a resolution that satisfies all parties involved.

In this particular scenario, let’s dive deeper into the dynamics between the team members. One team member, let’s call her Sarah, strongly believes that a more conservative and traditional approach is necessary for the project’s success. On the other hand, her colleague, John, advocates for a more innovative and out-of-the-box strategy. The clash between their perspectives arises from their different backgrounds and experiences.

As the conflict escalates, it is essential for a neutral party, such as a team leader or a mediator, to step in and facilitate the conversation. This person should create a safe space for both Sarah and John to express their ideas and concerns without fear of judgment or retribution. By actively listening to each other, they can gain a better understanding of the underlying motivations behind their respective approaches.

During the conversation, it may become apparent that Sarah’s conservative approach stems from a fear of taking risks and a desire for stability. On the other hand, John’s innovative mindset is driven by a passion for pushing boundaries and finding creative solutions. Recognizing these underlying motivations can help foster empathy and create a foundation for collaboration.

As the dialogue progresses, Sarah and John can begin to identify areas of overlap and potential compromise. They may realize that while Sarah’s conservative approach provides stability, John’s innovative ideas can inject fresh perspectives into the project. By combining their strengths and finding a middle ground, they can develop a hybrid strategy that incorporates both stability and innovation.

Ultimately, conflict resolution in the workplace requires effective communication, active listening, empathy, and a willingness to find common ground. By addressing conflicts head-on and fostering a collaborative environment, teams can overcome challenges and achieve their goals.

Dealing with Workplace Stress and Burnout

Workplace stress and burnout can be debilitating for individuals and organizations alike. In this scenario, an employee is consistently overwhelmed by their workload and experiencing signs of burnout. To address this issue, organizations should promote a healthy work-life balance and provide resources to manage stress effectively. Encouraging employees to take breaks, providing access to mental health support, and fostering a supportive work culture are all practical solutions to alleviate workplace stress.

In this particular scenario, let’s imagine that the employee facing stress and burnout is named Alex. Alex has been working long hours, often sacrificing personal time and rest to meet tight deadlines and demanding expectations. As a result, Alex is experiencing physical and mental exhaustion, reduced productivity, and a sense of detachment from work.

Recognizing the signs of burnout, Alex’s organization takes proactive measures to address the issue. They understand that employee well-being is crucial for maintaining a healthy and productive workforce. To promote a healthy work-life balance, the organization encourages employees to take regular breaks and prioritize self-care. They emphasize the importance of disconnecting from work during non-working hours and encourage employees to engage in activities that promote relaxation and rejuvenation.

Additionally, the organization provides access to mental health support services, such as counseling or therapy sessions. They recognize that stress and burnout can have a significant impact on an individual’s mental well-being and offer resources to help employees manage their stress effectively. By destigmatizing mental health and providing confidential support, the organization creates an environment where employees feel comfortable seeking help when needed.

Furthermore, the organization fosters a supportive work culture by promoting open communication and empathy. They encourage managers and colleagues to check in with each other regularly, offering support and understanding. Team members are encouraged to collaborate and share the workload, ensuring that no one person is overwhelmed with excessive responsibilities.

By implementing these strategies, Alex’s organization aims to alleviate workplace stress and prevent burnout. They understand that a healthy and balanced workforce is more likely to be engaged, productive, and satisfied. Through a combination of promoting work-life balance, providing mental health support, and fostering a supportive work culture, organizations can effectively address workplace stress and create an environment conducive to employee well-being.

Practical Solutions to Workplace Problems

Now that we have explored real scenarios, let’s discuss practical solutions that organizations can implement to address workplace problems. By adopting proactive strategies and establishing effective policies, organizations can create a positive work environment conducive to problem-solving and productivity.

Implementing Effective Policies for Problem Resolution

Organizations should have clear and well-defined policies in place to address workplace problems. These policies should outline procedures for conflict resolution, channels for reporting problems, and accountability measures. By ensuring that employees are aware of these policies and have easy access to them, organizations can facilitate problem-solving and prevent issues from escalating.

Promoting a Positive Workplace Culture

A positive workplace culture is vital for problem-solving. By fostering an environment of respect, collaboration, and open communication, organizations can create a space where individuals feel empowered to address and solve problems. Encouraging teamwork, recognizing and appreciating employees’ contributions, and promoting a healthy work-life balance are all ways to cultivate a positive workplace culture.

The Role of Leadership in Problem Solving

Leadership plays a crucial role in facilitating effective problem-solving within organizations. Different leadership styles can impact how problems are approached and resolved.

Leadership Styles and Their Impact on Problem-Solving

Leaders who adopt an autocratic leadership style may make decisions independently, potentially leaving their team members feeling excluded and undervalued. On the other hand, leaders who adopt a democratic leadership style involve their team members in the problem-solving process, fostering a sense of ownership and empowerment. By encouraging employee participation, organizations can leverage the diverse perspectives and expertise of their workforce to find innovative solutions to workplace problems.

Encouraging Employee Participation in Problem Solving

To harness the collective problem-solving abilities of an organization, it is crucial to encourage employee participation. Leaders can create opportunities for employees to contribute their ideas and perspectives through brainstorming sessions, team meetings, and collaborative projects. By valuing employee input and involving them in decision-making processes, organizations can foster a culture of inclusivity and drive innovative problem-solving efforts.

In today’s dynamic work environment, workplace problems are unavoidable. However, by understanding common workplace problems, developing essential problem-solving skills, and implementing practical solutions, individuals and organizations can navigate these challenges effectively. By fostering a positive work culture, implementing effective policies, and encouraging employee participation, organizations can create an environment conducive to problem-solving and productivity. With proactive problem-solving strategies in place, organizations can thrive and overcome obstacles, ensuring long-term success and growth.

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What Is Systems Thinking?

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• Cite this living reference work entry

• Derek Cabrera 4 &
• Laura Cabrera 4  

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This chapter provides a brief overview and understanding of the historical evolution of the field of systems thinking, which has been characterized as occurring in three waves, the last of which recognized a plurality of methods and approaches. In the last decade, a fourth wave has emerged that is based on four simple cognitive tasks or “rules” – making distinctions and recognizing systems, relationships, and perspectives (DSRP). These four rules combine in infinitely complex ways to produce the emergent property of systems thinking. They underlie and serve to integrate the diverse methods and approaches of systems thinking. Applying DSRP is a new skill that extends and enhances popular systems thinking tools and approaches. DSRP provides a common language and analytical method to span the multiple subfields that have often worked in isolation, allowing the tremendous pluralism in systems thinking to exist alongside universality. Importantly, the simplicity of the DSRP rules makes it far easier to teach and learn systems thinking. The fourth wave makes systems thinking more accessible than ever before, as DSRP cognitive skills can be taught to individuals at all levels in all disciplines. The corollary development of systems modeling techniques are accessible ways to capture and measure one’s progress in developing the skills required for systems thinking. The historical overview and description of where the field is headed will provide context for an introduction to the role of systems thinking in human and organizational development and in particular the relevance for educational systems.

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Using Systems Thinking to Unpack Problems

Drive transformative change by first understanding how to apply systems thinking to unpack complex problems.

In Using Systems Thinking to Unpack Problems , you’ll learn how to apply systems thinking in a practical way to understand the problem and reveal the social, economic and environmental factors that may contribute to it. With these insights, you will be able to make better decisions about where to intervene and know which behaviours to target.

Bring your own problem to apply a systems approach: To get the most out of your course, we encourage participants to bring their own problem to apply a systems approach. This could be a problem you are currently facing at work or in a personal project.

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This course is for you if you are a problem solver looking to enhance your analytical skills to tackle complex issues with a holistic perspective.

Whether you are a business professional seeking to optimise organisational processes, a policymaker aiming to address societal challenges, or an aspiring innovator seeking to develop impactful solutions, this course will equip you with the tools and frameworks needed to navigate intricate problems effectively.

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Problem-Solving Techniques That Work For All Types of Challenges

Essay by Spencer Greenberg, Clearer Thinking founder

A lot of people don’t realize that there are general purpose problem solving techniques that cut across domains. They can help you deal with thorny challenges in work, your personal life, startups, or even if you’re trying to prove a new theorem in math.

Below are the 26 general purpose problem solving techniques that I like best, along with a one-word name I picked for each, and hypothetical examples to illustrate what sort of strategy I’m referring to.

Consider opening up this list whenever you’re stuck solving a challenging problem. It’s likely that one or more of these techniques can help!

1. Clarifying

Try to define the problem you are facing as precisely as you can, maybe by writing down a detailed description of exactly what the problem is and what constraints exist for a solution, or by describing it in detail to another person. This may lead to you realizing the problem is not quite what you had thought, or that it has a more obvious solution than you thought.

Life Example

“I thought that I needed to find a new job, but when I thought really carefully about what I don’t like about my current job, I realized that I could likely fix those things by talking to my boss or even, potentially, just by thinking about them differently.”

Startup Example

“we thought we had a problem with users not wanting to sign up for the product, but when we carefully investigated what the problem really was, we discovered it was actually more of a problem of users wanting the product but then growing frustrated because of bad interface design.”

2. Subdividing

Break the problem down into smaller problems in such a way that if you solve each of the small problems, you will have solved the entire problem. Once a problem is subdivided it can also sometimes be parallelized (e.g., by involving different people to work on the different components).

“My goal is to get company Z to become a partner with my company, and that seems hard, so let me break that goal into the steps of (a) listing the ways that company Z would benefit from becoming a partner with us, (b) finding an employee at company Z who would be responsive to hearing about these benefits, and (c) tracking down someone who can introduce me to that employee.”

Math Example

“I want to prove that a certain property applies to all functions of a specific type, so I start by (a) showing that every function of that type can be written as a sum of a more specific type of function, then I show that (b) the property applies to each function of the more specific type, and finally I show that (c) if the property applies to each function in a set of functions then it applies to arbitrary sums of those functions as well.”

3. Simplifying

Think of the simplest variation of the problem that you expect you can solve that shares important features in common with your problem, and see if solving this simpler problem gives you ideas for how to solve the more difficult version.

“I don’t know how to hire a CTO, but I do know how to hire a software engineer because I’ve done it many times, and good CTOs will often themselves be good software engineers, so how can I tweak my software engineer hiring to make it appropriate for hiring a CTO?”

“I don’t know how to calculate this integral as it is, but if I remove one of the free parameters, I actually do know how to calculate it, and maybe doing that calculation will give me insight into the solution of the more complex integral.”

4. Crowd-sourcing 

Use suggestions from multiple people to gain insight into how to solve the problem, for instance by posting on Facebook or Twitter requesting people’s help, or by posting to a Q&A site like Quora, or by sending emails to 10 people you know explaining the problem and requesting assistance.

Business Example

“Do you have experience outsourcing manufacturing to China? If so, I’d appreciate hearing your thoughts about how to approach choosing a vendor.”

Health Example

“I have trouble getting myself to stick to doing exercise daily. If you also used to have trouble getting yourself to exercise but don’t anymore, I’d love to know what worked to make it easier for you.”

5. Splintering

If the problem you are trying to solve has special cases that a solution to the general problem would also apply to, consider just one or two of these special cases as examples and solve the problem just for those cases first. Then see if a solution to one of those special cases helps you solve the problem in general.

“I want to figure out how to improve employee retention in general, let me examine how I could have improved retention in the case of the last three people that quit.”

“I want to figure out how to convince a large number of people to become customers, let me first figure out how to convince just Bill and John to become customers since they seem like the sort of customer I want to attract, and see what general lessons I learn from doing that.”

Read the books or textbooks that seem most related to the topic, and see whether they provide a solution to the problem, or teach you enough related information that you can now solve it yourself.

Economics Example

“Economists probably have already figured out reasonable ways to estimate demand elasticity, let’s see what an econometrics textbook says rather than trying to invent a technique from scratch.”

Mental Health Example

“I’ve been feeling depressed for a long time, maybe I should read some well-liked books about depression.”

7. Searching

Think of a similar problem that you think practitioners, bloggers or academics might have already solved and search online (e.g., via google, Q&A sites, or google scholar academic paper search) to see if anyone has done a write-up about how they solved it.

Advertising Example

“I’m having trouble figuring out the right advertising keywords to bid on for my specific product, I bet someone has a blog post describing how to approach choosing keywords for other related products.”

Machine Learning Example

“I can’t get this neural network to train properly in my specific case, I wonder if someone has written a tutorial about how to apply neural networks to related problems.”

8. Unconstraining

List all the constraints of the problem, then temporarily ignore one or more of the constraints that make the problem especially hard, and try to solve it without those constraints. If you can, then see if you can modify that unconstrained solution until it becomes a solution for the fully constrained problem.

“I need to hire someone who can do work at the intersection of machine learning and cryptography, let me drop the constraint of having cryptography experience and recruit machine learning people, then pick from among them a person that seems both generally capable and well positioned to learn the necessary cryptography.”

Computer Science Example

“I need to implement a certain algorithm, and it needs to be efficient, but that seems very difficult, so let me first figure out how to implement an inefficient version of the algorithm (i.e., drop the efficiency constraint), then at the end I will try to figure out how to optimize that algorithm for efficiency.”

9. Distracting

Fill your mind with everything you know about the problem, including facts, constraints, challenges, considerations, etc. and then stop thinking about the problem, and go and do a relaxing activity that requires little focus, such as walking, swimming, cooking, napping or taking a bath to see if new ideas or potential solutions pop into your mind unexpectedly as your subconscious continues to work on the problem without your attention.

“For three days, I’ve been trying to solve this problem at work, but the solution only came to me when I was strolling in the woods and not even thinking about it.”

Example from mathematician Henri Poincaré

“The incidents of the travel made me forget my mathematical work. Having reached Coutances, we entered an omnibus to go someplace or other. At the moment when I put my foot on the step, the idea came to me, without anything in my former thoughts seeming to have paved the way for it, that the transformations I had used to define the Fuchsian functions were identical with those of non-Euclidean geometry.”

10. Reexamining

Write down all the assumptions you’ve been making about the problem or about what a solution should I look like (yes – make an actual list). Then start challenging them one by one to see if they are actually needed or whether some may be unnecessary or mistaken.

Psychology Example

“We were assuming in our lab experiments that when people get angry they have some underlying reason behind it, but there may be some anger that is better modeled as a chemical fluctuation that is only loosely related to what happens in the lab, such as when people are quick to anger because they are hungry.”

“I need to construct a function that has this strange property, and so far I’ve assumed that the function must be smooth, but if it doesn’t actually need to be then perhaps I can construct just such a function out of simple linear pieces that are glued together.”

11. Reframing

Try to see the problem differently. For instance, by flipping the default, analyzing the inverse of the problem instead, thinking about how you would achieve the opposite of what you want, or shifting to an opposing perspective.

If we were building this company over again completely from scratch, what would we do differently in the design of our product, and can we pivot the product in that direction right now?”

“Should move to New York to take a job that pays $20,000 more per year? Well, if I already lived in New York, the decision to stay there rather than taking a $20,000 pay cut to move here would be an easy one. So maybe I’m overly focused on the current default of not being in New York and the short term unpleasantness of relocating.”

Marketing Example

“If I were one of our typical potential customers, what would I do to try to find a product like ours?”

12. Brainstorming

Set a timer for at least 5 minutes, and generate as many plausible solutions or ideas that you can without worrying about quality at all. Evaluate the ideas only at the end after the timer goes off.

“I’m going to set a timer for 5 minutes and come up with at least three new ways I could go about looking for a co-founder.”

“I’m going to set a timer for 20 minutes and come up with at least five possible explanations for why I’ve been feeling so anxious lately.”

13. Experting

Find an expert (or someone highly knowledgeable) in the topic area and ask their opinion about the best way to solve the problem.

“Why do you think most attempts at creating digital medical records failed, and what would someone have to do differently to have a reasonable chance at success?”

“What sort of optimization algorithm would be most efficient for minimizing the objective functions of this type?”

14. Eggheading

Ask the smartest person you know how they would solve the problem. Be sure to send an email in advance, describing the details so that this person has time to deeply consider the problem before you discuss it.

“Given the information I sent you about our competitors and the interviews we’ve done with potential customers, in which direction would you pivot our product if you were me (and why)?”

Research Example

“Given the information I sent you about our goals and the fact that our previous research attempts have gotten nowhere, how would you approach researching this topic to find the answer we need?”

15. Guessing

Start with a guess for what the solution could be, now check if it actually works and if not, start tweaking that guess to see if you can morph it into something that could work.

“I don’t know what price to use for the product we’re selling, so let me start with an initial guess and then begin trying to sell the thing, and tweak the price down if it seems to be a sticking point for customers, and tweak the price up if the customers don’t seem to pay much attention to the price.”

“My off the cuff intuition says that this differential equation might have a solution of the form x^a * e^(b x)for some a or b, let me plug it into the equation to see if indeed it satisfies the equation for any choice of a and b, and if not, let me see if I can tweak it to make something similar work.”

“I don’t know what the most effective diet for me would be, so I’ll just use my intuition to ban from my diet some foods that seem both unhealthy and addictive, and see if that helps.”

16. Comparing

Think of similar domains you already understand or similar problems you have already solved in the past, and see whether your knowledge of those domains or solutions to those similar problems may work as a complete or partial solution here.

“I don’t know how to find someone to fix things in my apartment, but I have found a good house cleaner before by asking a few friends who they use, so maybe I can simply use the same approach for finding a person to fix things.”

“This equation I’m trying to simplify reminds me of work I’m familiar with related to Kullback-Leibler divergence, I wonder if results from information theory could be applied in this case.”

17. Outsourcing

Consider whether you can hire someone to solve this problem, instead of figuring out how to solve it yourself.

“I don’t really understand how to get media attention for my company, so let me hire a public relations firm and let them handle the process.”

“I have no fashion sense, but I’d like to look better. Maybe I should hire someone fashionable who works in apparel to go shopping with me and help me choose what I should wear.”

18. Experimenting

Rapidly develop possible solutions and test them out (in sequence, or in parallel) by applying cheap and fast experiments. Discard those that don’t work, or iterate on them to improve them based on what you learn from the experiments.

“We don’t know if people will like a product like the one we have in mind, but we can put together a functioning prototype quickly, show five people that seem like they could be potential users, and iterate or create an entirely new design based on how they respond.”

“I don’t know if cutting out sugar will help improve my energy levels, but I can try it for two weeks and see if I notice any differences.”

19. Generalizing

Consider the more general case of the specific problem you are trying to solve, and then work on solving the general version instead. Paradoxically, it is sometimes easier to make progress on the general case rather than a specific one because it increases your focus on the structure of the problem rather than unimportant details.

“I want to figure out how to get this particular key employee more motivated to do good work, let me construct a model of what makes employees motivated to do good work in general, then I’ll apply it to this case.”

“I want to solve this specific differential equation, but it’s clearly a special case of a more general class of differential equations, let me study the general class and see what I can learn about them first and then apply what I learn to the specific case.”

20. Approximating

Consider whether a partial or approximate solution would be acceptable and, if so, aim for that instead of a full or exact solution.

“Our goal is to figure out which truck to send out for which delivery, which theoretically depends on many factors such as current location, traffic conditions, truck capacity, fuel efficiency, how many hours the driver has been on duty, the number of people manning each truck, the hourly rate we pay each driver, etc. etc. Maybe if we focus on just the three variables that we think are most important, we can find a good enough solution.”

“Finding a solution to this equation seems difficult, but if I approximate one of the terms linearly it becomes much easier, and maybe for the range of values we’re interested in, that’s close enough to an exact solution!”

21. Annihilating

Try to prove that the problem you are attempting to solve is actually impossible. If you succeed, you may save yourself a lot of time working on something impossible. Furthermore, in attempting to prove that the problem is impossible, you may gain insight into what makes it actually possible to solve, or if it turns out to truly be impossible, figure out how you could tweak the problem to make it solvable.

“I’m struggling to find a design for a theoretical voting system that has properties X, Y, and Z, let me see if I can instead prove that no such voting system with these three properties could possibly exist.”

“My goal has been to prove that this property always applies to this class of functions, let me see if I can generate a counterexample to prove that this goal is actually impossible.”

Physics Example

“I was trying to design a physical system with certain properties, but I now realize that if such a system could be realized, then it would allow for perpetual motion, and therefore it is impossible to build the sort of system I had in mind.”

22. Modeling

Try to build an explicit model of the situation, including what elements there are and how they related to each other. For instance, try drawing a diagram or flow chart that encapsulates your understanding of all the important information that relates to the problem.

“I’ve noticed that there are certain situations that cause me to freak out that would not bother other people. So what are the common elements when this happens, and how do they seem to relate to each other and to the way I end up feeling? Let me see if I can draw a diagram of this on paper.”

“What are all the different groups (e.g., providers, payers, patients) involved in the healthcare system, and if we diagram how they interact with each other, will that give us ideas for how we can sell our healthcare product?”

23. Brute forcing

One-by-one, consider every possible solution to the problem until you’ve found a good one or exhausted them all.

Startup example

“We’re not sure the order that these four parts of the user registration process should go in, so let’s make a list of all 24 possible orderings, and examine them one by one to see which makes the most sense.”

“It’s not clear how to pick which of these machine learning methods to use on this problem, but since we have lots of data, we can just try each of the algorithms and see which makes the most accurate predictions on data we’ve held to the side for testing.”

24. Refocusing

Forget about trying to solve the problem, and instead consider why you are trying to solve it. Then consider if there is a different problem you can work on that is aimed at producing the same sort of value in a different way.

Startup Example 1

“Maybe instead of trying increasingly hard to figure out how to get this type of consumer to buy, we need to switch our focus to the problem of how to sell to businesses, since what we actually care about is selling it, not selling it to one particular group.”

Startup Example 2

“I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to implement this extremely complex feature, but there are lots of features that users would find just as valuable that are much easier to implement, maybe I should focus on those instead.”

25. Sidestepping

Consider whether you really want to spend more time trying to solve this problem and whether you can avoid the problem by instead working on totally different problems that you also care about.

“We’ve tried selling our solution to replace Excel for 12 months without much success, maybe we should go back to the drawing board and consider designing a totally new product. Our assumptions about customer needs seem to simply have been wrong.”

“I’ve spent six months on this math problem with little progress, but there are two other math problems I’m equally excited about, so maybe I should spend some time investigating whether one of those may be more tractable.”

26. Aggregating

Consider whether multiple problems you’re now experiencing might, in fact, be caused by the same source of difficulty, rather than being independent problems.

“I seem to be having conflict with a few different friends right now – could it be that I’m doing something without realizing it that is increasing my chance of conflict with all of them?”

“Three employees have quit in the last month. Perhaps the primary problem isn’t really about convincing this one important employee to stay, which is how I was framing it, but rather, about identifying why people keep leaving more generally.”

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When water freezes, it transitions from a liquid phase to a solid phase, resulting in a drastic change in properties like density and volume. Phase transitions in water are so common most of us probably don’t even think about them, but phase transitions in novel materials or complex physical systems are an important area of study.

To fully understand these systems, scientists must be able to recognize phases and detect the transitions between. But how to quantify phase changes in an unknown system is often unclear, especially when data are scarce.

Researchers from MIT and the University of Basel in Switzerland applied generative artificial intelligence models to this problem, developing a new machine-learning framework that can automatically map out phase diagrams for novel physical systems.

Their physics-informed machine-learning approach is more efficient than laborious, manual techniques which rely on theoretical expertise. Importantly, because their approach leverages generative models, it does not require huge, labeled training datasets used in other machine-learning techniques.

Such a framework could help scientists investigate the thermodynamic properties of novel materials or detect entanglement in quantum systems, for instance. Ultimately, this technique could make it possible for scientists to discover unknown phases of matter autonomously.

“If you have a new system with fully unknown properties, how would you choose which observable quantity to study? The hope, at least with data-driven tools, is that you could scan large new systems in an automated way, and it will point you to important changes in the system. This might be a tool in the pipeline of automated scientific discovery of new, exotic properties of phases,” says Frank Schäfer, a postdoc in the Julia Lab in the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) and co-author of a paper on this approach.

Joining Schäfer on the paper are first author Julian Arnold, a graduate student at the University of Basel; Alan Edelman, applied mathematics professor in the Department of Mathematics and leader of the Julia Lab; and senior author Christoph Bruder, professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Basel. The research is published today in Physical Review Letters.

Detecting phase transitions using AI

While water transitioning to ice might be among the most obvious examples of a phase change, more exotic phase changes, like when a material transitions from being a normal conductor to a superconductor, are of keen interest to scientists.

These transitions can be detected by identifying an “order parameter,” a quantity that is important and expected to change. For instance, water freezes and transitions to a solid phase (ice) when its temperature drops below 0 degrees Celsius. In this case, an appropriate order parameter could be defined in terms of the proportion of water molecules that are part of the crystalline lattice versus those that remain in a disordered state.

In the past, researchers have relied on physics expertise to build phase diagrams manually, drawing on theoretical understanding to know which order parameters are important. Not only is this tedious for complex systems, and perhaps impossible for unknown systems with new behaviors, but it also introduces human bias into the solution.

More recently, researchers have begun using machine learning to build discriminative classifiers that can solve this task by learning to classify a measurement statistic as coming from a particular phase of the physical system, the same way such models classify an image as a cat or dog.

The MIT researchers demonstrated how generative models can be used to solve this classification task much more efficiently, and in a physics-informed manner.

The Julia Programming Language , a popular language for scientific computing that is also used in MIT’s introductory linear algebra classes, offers many tools that make it invaluable for constructing such generative models, Schäfer adds.

Generative models, like those that underlie ChatGPT and Dall-E, typically work by estimating the probability distribution of some data, which they use to generate new data points that fit the distribution (such as new cat images that are similar to existing cat images).

However, when simulations of a physical system using tried-and-true scientific techniques are available, researchers get a model of its probability distribution for free. This distribution describes the measurement statistics of the physical system.

A more knowledgeable model

The MIT team’s insight is that this probability distribution also defines a generative model upon which a classifier can be constructed. They plug the generative model into standard statistical formulas to directly construct a classifier instead of learning it from samples, as was done with discriminative approaches.

“This is a really nice way of incorporating something you know about your physical system deep inside your machine-learning scheme. It goes far beyond just performing feature engineering on your data samples or simple inductive biases,” Schäfer says.

This generative classifier can determine what phase the system is in given some parameter, like temperature or pressure. And because the researchers directly approximate the probability distributions underlying measurements from the physical system, the classifier has system knowledge.

This enables their method to perform better than other machine-learning techniques. And because it can work automatically without the need for extensive training, their approach significantly enhances the computational efficiency of identifying phase transitions.

At the end of the day, similar to how one might ask ChatGPT to solve a math problem, the researchers can ask the generative classifier questions like “does this sample belong to phase I or phase II?” or “was this sample generated at high temperature or low temperature?”

Scientists could also use this approach to solve different binary classification tasks in physical systems, possibly to detect entanglement in quantum systems (Is the state entangled or not?) or determine whether theory A or B is best suited to solve a particular problem. They could also use this approach to better understand and improve large language models like ChatGPT by identifying how certain parameters should be tuned so the chatbot gives the best outputs.

In the future, the researchers also want to study theoretical guarantees regarding how many measurements they would need to effectively detect phase transitions and estimate the amount of computation that would require.

This work was funded, in part, by the Swiss National Science Foundation, the MIT-Switzerland Lockheed Martin Seed Fund, and MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives.

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Researchers at MIT and elsewhere have developed a new machine-learning model capable of “predicting a physical system’s phase or state,” report Kyle Wiggers and Devin Coldewey for TechCrunch . 

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Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

At michigan state university, international research team uses wavefunction matching to solve quantum many-body problems, new approach makes calculations with realistic interactions possible.

FRIB researchers are part of an international research team solving challenging computational problems in quantum physics using a new method called wavefunction matching. The new approach has applications to fields such as nuclear physics, where it is enabling theoretical calculations of atomic nuclei that were previously not possible. The details are published in Nature (“Wavefunction matching for solving quantum many-body problems”) .

Ab initio methods and their computational challenges

An ab initio method describes a complex system by starting from a description of its elementary components and their interactions. For the case of nuclear physics, the elementary components are protons and neutrons. Some key questions that ab initio calculations can help address are the binding energies and properties of atomic nuclei not yet observed and linking nuclear structure to the underlying interactions among protons and neutrons.

Yet, some ab initio methods struggle to produce reliable calculations for systems with complex interactions. One such method is quantum Monte Carlo simulations. In quantum Monte Carlo simulations, quantities are computed using random or stochastic processes. While quantum Monte Carlo simulations can be efficient and powerful, they have a significant weakness: the sign problem. The sign problem develops when positive and negative weight contributions cancel each other out. This cancellation results in inaccurate final predictions. It is often the case that quantum Monte Carlo simulations can be performed for an approximate or simplified interaction, but the corresponding simulations for realistic interactions produce severe sign problems and are therefore not possible.

Using ‘plastic surgery’ to make calculations possible

The new wavefunction-matching approach is designed to solve such computational problems. The research team—from Gaziantep Islam Science and Technology University in Turkey; University of Bonn, Ruhr University Bochum, and Forschungszentrum Jülich in Germany; Institute for Basic Science in South Korea; South China Normal University, Sun Yat-Sen University, and Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics in China; Tbilisi State University in Georgia; CEA Paris-Saclay and Université Paris-Saclay in France; and Mississippi State University and the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) at Michigan State University (MSU)—includes  Dean Lee , professor of physics at FRIB and in MSU’s Department of Physics and Astronomy and head of the Theoretical Nuclear Science department at FRIB, and  Yuan-Zhuo Ma , postdoctoral research associate at FRIB.

“We are often faced with the situation that we can perform calculations using a simple approximate interaction, but realistic high-fidelity interactions cause severe computational problems,” said Lee. “Wavefunction matching solves this problem by doing plastic surgery. It removes the short-distance part of the high-fidelity interaction, and replaces it with the short-distance part of an easily computable interaction.”

This transformation is done in a way that preserves all of the important properties of the original realistic interaction. Since the new wavefunctions look similar to that of the easily computable interaction, researchers can now perform calculations using the easily computable interaction and apply a standard procedure for handling small corrections called perturbation theory.  A team effort

The research team applied this new method to lattice quantum Monte Carlo simulations for light nuclei, medium-mass nuclei, neutron matter, and nuclear matter. Using precise ab initio calculations, the results closely matched real-world data on nuclear properties such as size, structure, and binding energies. Calculations that were once impossible due to the sign problem can now be performed using wavefunction matching.

“It is a fantastic project and an excellent opportunity to work with the brightest nuclear scientist s in FRIB and around the globe,” said Ma. “As a theorist , I'm also very excited about programming and conducting research on the world's most powerful exascale supercomputers, such as Frontier , which allows us to implement wavefunction matching to explore the mysteries of nuclear physics.”

While the research team focused solely on quantum Monte Carlo simulations, wavefunction matching should be useful for many different ab initio approaches, including both classical and  quantum computing calculations. The researchers at FRIB worked with collaborators at institutions in China, France, Germany, South Korea, Turkey, and United States.

“The work is the culmination of effort over many years to handle the computational problems associated with realistic high-fidelity nuclear interactions,” said Lee. “It is very satisfying to see that the computational problems are cleanly resolved with this new approach. We are grateful to all of the collaboration members who contributed to this project, in particular, the lead author, Serdar Elhatisari.”

This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the German Research Foundation, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Chinese Academy of Sciences President’s International Fellowship Initiative, Volkswagen Stiftung, the European Research Council, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Security Academic Fund, the Rare Isotope Science Project of the Institute for Basic Science, the National Research Foundation of Korea, the Institute for Basic Science, and the Espace de Structure et de réactions Nucléaires Théorique.

Michigan State University operates the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) as a user facility for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE-SC), supporting the mission of the DOE-SC Office of Nuclear Physics. Hosting what is designed to be the most powerful heavy-ion accelerator, FRIB enables scientists to make discoveries about the properties of rare isotopes in order to better understand the physics of nuclei, nuclear astrophysics, fundamental interactions, and applications for society, including in medicine, homeland security, and industry.

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of today’s most pressing challenges. For more information, visit energy.gov/science.

Engineering student works to improve water infrastructure

Tolulope odunola is driven to make an impact in developing communities.

After earning her bachelor's degree in civil engineering at a premier university in Nigeria, Tolulope Odunola became fascinated by the world of hydrology and water systems and set off to continue her education in environmental engineering.

She came to the University of Cincinnati for her master's degree, and the experience left such an impact she stayed for her doctorate, working under the guidance of Patrick Ray, associate professor of environmental engineering.

Odunola was named Graduate Student Engineer of the Month by the College of Engineering and Applied Science. 

Why did you choose UC?

My journey to the University of Cincinnati was quite an interesting one. I grew up in Nigeria and after earning a bachelor's degree in civil engineering, I was convinced that I needed both the exposure and improved skillset that an overseas graduate education would provide. The University of Cincinnati was not on my list initially, but upon recommendation, I browsed through the school's website and faculty profiles in my program of choice. 

After I arrived at UC, I was captivated by the beautiful architecture on campus and the diversity of nationalities represented here.

Tolulope Odunola, Graduate Student Engineer of the Month

Tolulope Odunola

My quick survey of the university revealed that UC held much promise for my development academically and careerwise, so I did not delay in submitting my application for a master's degree in environmental engineering .

I applied to UC a few days before the deadline in 2019 and I am so glad I made the right choice. After I arrived, I was captivated by the beautiful architecture on campus and the diversity of nationalities represented here. 

Why did you choose your field of study?

I am pursuing my doctorate in environmental engineering after obtaining my master's degree in the same program in 2022. I have a bachelor's degree in civil engineering, and the little story of how I ended up in the field of engineering begins when I was in high school. Back then, I enjoyed science and mathematics, but I also loved fine arts and technical drawing, so I wanted a discipline that combined both innovative creativity and computation prowess. I explored the field of environmental design first and considered architecture, but I eventually decided on civil engineering, in part due to the broader scope of the field. 

As an undergraduate student, I learned about the environmental aspects of civil engineering. With time, water and environmental engineering began to stand out to me amongst other areas of specialization. I observed that there was still much room to contribute to the practice of environmental engineering in Nigeria, as well as to improve the standards, management, and sustainability practices of water resources and waste management systems. By the final year of my undergraduate program, I decided I would go onto graduate school to learn more about environmental engineering and gain skills in the area. This is how I ended up at UC in the Water Systems Analysis group under the supervision of Dr. Patrick Ray. 

Briefly describe your research work. What problems do you hope to solve?

Under the guidance of Dr. Patrick Ray, Tolulope Odunola has presented her research at several conferences, including the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.

My research is focused on improving the economic evaluation of water resource projects under changing climate conditions.

My goal is to make significant contributions to decision science. The design, planning and operation of water projects like irrigation dams and water supply networks is affected by climate change because the amount of water that will be available in the future for such projects is uncertain.

While climate science has advanced in recent years, there is still room for improvement to standard economic evaluation using climate vulnerability assessment methodologies.

My research aims to provide decision makers in water resources engineering with robust analysis frameworks, tools, and decision metrics for confident investment decisions under climate uncertainty. I am also exploring spatial and distributional equity considerations in economic evaluation under climate change.

Odunola is advised by Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering, Patrick Ray.

Research at UC has been positively demanding and rewarding. I am thankful for my adviser, Patrick Ray , who introduced me to the world of development projects planning, climate vulnerability assessment and decision science.

I have enjoyed working on practical projects, learning new skills, and collaborating with multidisciplinary project teams. For instance, I was funded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation for three years which introduced me to the work culture in a typical development agency.

I have learned to present my research to a non-technical audience and to understand and be considerate of different perspectives of water engineering systems modeling under climate change. I have had to think like an economist, an urban planner and an agronomist while building my hydrological models and approaching scenario analysis under climate change, for example.

I would say this is one of the blessings of graduate school — it eliminates myopic approaches to anything in life, research included. 

What are some of the most impactful experiences during your time at UC?

I have been privileged to attend and present at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting several times as well as the American Society of Civil Engineers' EWRI Congress. These conferences inspired and encouraged me to work harder on my research and make significant contributions to both science and industry. There was also the additional advantage of visiting and touring new cities during the conferences. 

Traveling for work and presentation sessions at the Millennium Challenge Corporation office in Washington, D.C., had a huge impact on me. I once toured D.C. with my family as a teenager. To return almost a decade later for work as a graduate student was amazing, to say the least. As you can expect, I took a selfie with a caption of my thoughts on the busy morning streets of D.C. and shared it with my family back home in Nigeria. 

What are a few of your accomplishments of which you are most proud?

Winning the Outstanding Student Presentation Award for the Hydrology Section at the AGU Fall Meeting in 2023, and the 2024 People's Choice Award at the University of Cincinnati's three-minute thesis competition are definitely at the top of my list.

I also have been a two-time recipient of the American Water Works Association Ohio Chapter Graduate Scholarship. Recently, I was awarded the Graduate Student Government Research Fellowship.

I am deeply grateful for the honor that accompanies these feats, but equally important and impactful was the process leading up to these awards during which I developed my research dissemination, writing, and presentation skills. 

When do you expect to graduate? What are your plans after earning your degree?

I aim to graduate within the next year and my plan is the same as it was in the fall of 2019 when I arrived at UC: to make an impact in human communities, one sustainable water resource project at a time. I look forward to being employed in the water industry as a water resource analyst and planner, and specifically I hope to work in an international development or foreign aid agency to provide developing countries with water infrastructure that is robust to uncertainties such as climate change. 

Do you have any other hobbies or involvements you'd like to share?

Outside of research, I enjoy reading historical fiction novels, creative writing, and exploring the beauty of nature. UC has also afforded me many leadership opportunities.

First, with the Nigerian Students' Association where I served as Secretary and three-time Electoral Committee Chairperson. Also, I have served for two tenures as the Vice President of my department's Graduate Student Association.

Plus, I had growth, leadership, and ministry opportunities by serving with Every Nation here at UC. I will always be grateful for the relationships I have made as a graduate student at UC; my church family, research group colleagues, Nigerian friends who made Cincinnati a home away from home, and several others too numerous to mention!

Featured image at top:  Tolulope Odunola is studying ways to improve the infrastructure that provides clean drinking water. He was named UC's Graduate Student Engineer of the Month by the College of Engineering and Applied Science. Photo/Pixabay

Interested in becoming an engineering Bearcat?

Check out the graduate programs offered by the College of Engineering and Applied Science. 

• Student Experience
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• Chemical and Environmental Engineering
• Civil and Architectural Engineering and Construction Management

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Graduating engineering undergraduates from the University of Cincinnati’s College of Engineering and Applied Science gathered for the inaugural CEAS Expo in April to showcase their senior capstone projects to more than 500 attendees, including faculty, staff, alumni and industry representatives. The event, organized by the college and CEAS Tribunal student government, was held in downtown Cincinnati at the Duke Energy Convention Center.

Engineering students present senior capstone projects digitally

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This spring, senior students at the University of Cincinnati's College of Engineering and Applied Science came together to present their final capstone projects at the third annual CEAS Expo. College faculty, staff, alumni and industry professionals attended the event to witness the innovation that is created at CEAS.

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The Possible Collapse of the U.S. Home Insurance System

A times investigation found climate change may now be a concern for every homeowner in the country..

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.

From “The New York Times,” I’m Sabrina Tavernise. And this is “The Daily.”

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Today, my colleague, Christopher Flavelle, on a “Times” investigation into one of the least known and most consequential effects of climate change — insurance — and why it may now be a concern for every homeowner in the country.

It’s Wednesday, May 15.

So, Chris, you and I talked a while ago about how climate change was really wreaking havoc in the insurance market in Florida. You’ve just done an investigation that takes a look into the insurance markets more broadly and more deeply. Tell us about it.

Yeah, so I cover climate change, in particular the way climate shocks affect different parts of American life. And insurance has become a really big part of that coverage. And Florida is a great example. As hurricanes have gotten worse and more frequent, insurers are paying out more and more money to rebuild people’s homes. And that’s driving up insurance costs and ultimately driving up the cost of owning a home in Florida.

So we’re already seeing that climate impact on the housing market in Florida. My colleagues and I started to think, well, could it be that that kind of disruption is also happening in other states, not just in the obvious coastal states but maybe even through the middle of the US? So we set out to find out just how much it is happening, how much that Florida turmoil has, in fact, become really a contagion that is spreading across the country.

So how did you go about reporting this? I mean, where did you start?

All we knew at the start of this was that there was reason to think this might be a problem. If you just look at how the federal government tracks disasters around the country, there’s been a big increase almost every year in the number and severity of all kinds of disasters around the country. So we thought, OK, it’s worth trying to find out, what does that mean for insurers?

The problem is getting data on the insurance industry is actually really hard. There’s no federal regulation. There’s no government agency you can go to that holds this data. If you talk to the insurers directly, they tend to be a little reluctant to share information about what they’re going through. So we weren’t sure where to go until, finally, we realized the best people to ask are the people whose job it is to gauge the financial health of insurance companies.

Those are rating agencies. In particular, there’s one rating company called AM Best, whose whole purpose is to tell investors how healthy an insurance company is.

Whoa. So this is way down in the nuts and bolts of the US insurance industry.

Right. This is a part of the broader economy that most people would never experience. But we asked them to do something special for us. We said, hey, can you help us find the one number that would tell us reporters just how healthy or unhealthy this insurance market is state by state over time? And it turns out, there is just such a number. It’s called a combined ratio.

OK, plain English?

Plain English, it is the ratio of revenue to costs, how much money these guys take in for homeowner’s insurance and how much they pay out in costs and losses. You want your revenue to be higher than your costs. If not, you’re in trouble.

So what did you find out?

Well, we got that number for every state, going back more than a decade. And what it showed us was our suspicions were right. This market turmoil that we were seeing in Florida and California has indeed been spreading across the country. And in fact, it turns out that in 18 states, last year, the homeowner’s insurance market lost money. And that’s a big jump from 5 or 10 years ago and spells real trouble for insurance and for homeowners and for almost every part of the economy.

So the contagion was real.

Right. This is our first window showing us just how far that contagion had spread. And one of the really striking things about this data was it showed the contagion had spread to places that I wouldn’t have thought of as especially prone to climate shocks — for example, a lot of the Midwest, a lot of the Southeast. In fact, if you think of a map of the country, there was no state between Pennsylvania and the Dakotas that didn’t lose money on homeowner’s insurance last year.

So just huge parts of the middle of the US have become unprofitable for homeowner’s insurance. This market is starting to buckle under the cost of climate change.

And this is all happening really fast. When we did the Florida episode two years ago, it was a completely new phenomenon and really only in Florida. And now it’s everywhere.

Yeah. And that’s exactly what’s so striking here. The rate at which this is becoming, again, a contagion and spreading across the country is just demolishing the expectations of anyone I’ve spoken to. No one thought that this problem would affect so much of the US so quickly.

So in these states, these new places that the contagion has spread to, what exactly is happening that’s causing the insurance companies to fold up shop?

Yeah. Something really particular is happening in a lot of these states. And it’s worth noting how it’s surprised everyone. And what that is, is formally unimportant weather events, like hailstorms or windstorms, those didn’t used to be the kind of thing that would scare insurance companies. Obviously, a big problem if it destroys your home or damages your home. But for insurers, it wasn’t going to wipe them out financially.

Right. It wasn’t just a complete and utter wipeout that the company would then have to pony up a lot of money for.

Exactly. And insurers call them secondary perils, sort of a belittling term, something other than a big deal, like a hurricane.

These minor league weather events.

Right. But those are becoming so frequent and so much more intense that they can cause existential threats for insurance companies. And insurers are now fleeing states not because of hurricanes but because those former things that were small are now big. Hailstorms, wildfires in some places, previous annoyances are becoming real threats to insurers.

Chris, what’s the big picture on what insurers are actually facing? What’s happening out there numbers-wise?

This is a huge threat. In terms of the number of states where this industry is losing money, it’s more than doubled from 10 years ago to basically a third of the country. The amount they’re losing is enormous. In some states, insurers are paying out $1.25 or even $1.50 for every dollar they bring in, in revenue, which is totally unsustainable.

And the result is insurers are making changes. They are pulling back from these markets. They’re hiking premiums. And often, they’re just dropping customers. And that’s where this becomes real, not just for people who surf balance sheets and trade in the stock market. This is becoming real for homeowners around the country, who all of a sudden increasingly can’t get insurance.

So, Chris, what’s the actual implication? I mean, what happens when people in a state can’t get insurance for their homes?

Getting insurance for a home is crucial if you want to sell or buy a home. Most people can’t buy a home without a mortgage. And banks won’t issue a mortgage without home insurance. So if you’ve got a home that insurance company doesn’t want to cover, you got a real problem. You need to find insurance, or that home becomes very close to unsellable.

And as you get fewer buyers, the price goes down. So this doesn’t just hurt people who are paying for these insurance premiums. It hurts people who want to sell their homes. It even could hurt, at some point, whole local economies. If home values fall, governments take in less tax revenue. That means less money for schools and police. It also means people who get hit by disasters and have to rebuild their homes all of a sudden can’t, because their insurance isn’t available anymore. It’s hard to overstate just how big a deal this is.

And is that actually happening, Chris? I mean, are housing markets being dragged down because of this problem with the insurance markets right now?

Anecdotally, we’ve got reports that in places like Florida and Louisiana and maybe in parts of California, the difficulty of getting insurance, the crazy high cost of insurance is starting to depress demand because not everyone can afford to pay these really high costs, even if they have insurance. But what we wanted to focus on with this story was also, OK, we know where this goes eventually. But where is it beginning? What are the places that are just starting to feel these shocks from the insurance market?

And so I called around and asked insurance agents, who are the front lines of this. They’re the ones who are struggling to find insurance for homeowners. And I said, hey, is there one place that I should go if I want to understand what it looks like to homeowners when all of a sudden insurance becomes really expensive or you can’t even find it? And those insurance agents told me, if you want to see what this looks like in real life, go to a little town called Marshalltown in the middle of Iowa.

We’ll be right back.

So, Chris, you went to Marshalltown, Iowa. What did you find?

Even before I got to Marshalltown, I had some idea I was in the right spot. When I landed in Des Moines and went to rent a car, the nice woman at the desk who rented me a car, she said, what are you doing here? I said, I’m here to write a story about people in Iowa who can’t get insurance because of storms. She said, oh, yeah, I know all about that. That’s a big problem here.

Even the rental car lady.

Even the rental car lady knew something was going on. And so I got into my rental car and drove about an hour northeast of Des Moines, through some rolling hills, to this lovely little town of Marshalltown. Marshalltown is a really cute, little Midwestern town with old homes and a beautiful courthouse in the town square. And when I drove through, I couldn’t help noticing all the roofs looked new.

What does that tell you?

Turns out Marshalltown, despite being a pastoral image of Midwestern easy living, was hit by two really bad disasters in recent years — first, a devastating tornado in 2018 and then, in 2020, what’s called a derecho, a straight-line wind event that’s also just enormously damaging. And the result was lots of homes in this small town got severely damaged in a short period of time. And so when you drive down, you see all these new roofs that give you the sense that something’s going on.

So climate had come to Marshalltown?

Exactly. A place that had previously seemed maybe safe from climate change, if there is such a thing, all of a sudden was not. So I found an insurance agent in Marshalltown —

We talked to other agents but haven’t talked to many homeowners.

— named Bobby Shomo. And he invited me to his office early one morning and said, come meet some people. And so I parked on a quiet street outside of his office, across the street from the courthouse, which also had a new roof, and went into his conference room and met a procession of clients who all had versions of the same horror story.

It was more — well more of double.

A huge reduction in coverage with a huge price increase.

Some people had faced big premium hikes.

I’m just a little, small business owner. So every little bit I do feel.

They had so much trouble with their insurance company.

I was with IMT Insurance forever. And then when I moved in 2020, Bobby said they won’t insure a pool.

Some people had gotten dropped.

Where we used to see carriers canceling someone for frequency of three or four or five claims, it’s one or two now.

Some people couldn’t get the coverage they needed. But it was versions of the same tale, which is all of a sudden, having homeowner’s insurance in Marshalltown was really difficult. But I wanted to see if it was bigger than just Marshalltown. So the next day, I got back in my car and drove east to Cedar Rapids, where I met another person having a version of the same problem, a guy named Dave Langston.

Tell me about Dave.

Dave lives in a handsome, modest, little townhouse on a quiet cul-de-sac on a hill at the edge of Cedar Rapids. He’s the president of his homeowners association. There’s 17 homes on this little street. And this is just as far as you could get from a danger zone. It looks as safe as could be. But in January, they got a letter from the company that insures him and his neighbors, saying his policy was being canceled, even though it wasn’t as though they’d just been hit by some giant storm.

So then what was the reason they gave?

They didn’t give a reason. And I think people might not realize, insurers don’t have to give a reason. Insurance policies are year to year. And if your insurance company decides that you’re too much of a risk or your neighborhood is too much of a risk or your state is too much of a risk, they can just leave. They can send you a letter saying, forget it. We’re canceling your insurance. There’s almost no protection people have.

And in this case, the reason was that this insurance company was losing too much money in Iowa and didn’t want to keep on writing homeowner’s insurance in the state. That was the situation that Dave shared with tens of thousands of people across the state that were all getting similar letters.

What made Dave’s situation a little more challenging was that he couldn’t get new insurance. He tried for months through agent after agent after agent. And every company told him the same thing. We won’t cover you. Even though these homes are perfectly safe in a safe part of the state, nobody would say yes. And it took them until basically two days before their insurance policy was going to run out until they finally found new coverage that was far more expensive and far more bare-bones than what they’d had.

But at least it was something.

It was something. But the problem was it wasn’t that good. Under this new policy, if Dave’s street got hit by another big windstorm, the damage from that storm and fixing that damage would wipe out all the savings set aside by these homeowners. The deductible would be crushingly high — $120,000 — to replace those roofs if the worst happened because the insurance money just wouldn’t cover anywhere close to the cost of rebuilding.

He said to me, we didn’t do anything wrong. This is just what insurance looks like today. And today, it’s us in Cedar Rapids. Everyone, though, is going to face a situation like this eventually. And Dave is right. I talked to insurance agents around the country. And they confirmed for me that this kind of a shift towards a new type of insurance, insurance that’s more expensive and doesn’t cover as much and makes it harder to rebuild after a big disaster, it’s becoming more and more common around the country.

So, Chris, if Dave and the people you spoke to in Iowa were really evidence that your hunch was right, that the problem is spreading and rapidly, what are the possible fixes here?

The fix that people seem most hopeful about is this idea that, what if you could reduce the risk and cause there to be less damage in the first place? So what some states are doing is they’re trying to encourage homeowners to spend more money on hardening their home or adding a new roof or, if it’s a wildfire zone, cut back the vegetation, things that can reduce your risk of having really serious losses. And to help pay for that, they’re telling insurers, you’ve got to offer a discount to people who do that.

And everyone who works in this field says, in theory, that’s the right approach. The problem is, number one, hardening a home costs a fantastic amount of money. So doing this at scale is hugely expensive. Number two, it takes a long time to actually get enough homes hardened in this way that you can make a real dent for insurance companies. We’re talking about years or probably decades before that has a real effect, if it ever works.

OK. So that sounds not particularly realistic, given the urgency and the timeline we’re on here. So what else are people looking at?

Option number two is the government gets involved. And instead of most Americans buying home insurance from a private company, they start buying it from government programs that are designed to make sure that people, even in risky places, can still buy insurance. That would be just a gargantuan undertaking. The idea of the government providing homeowner’s insurance because private companies can’t or won’t would lead to one of the biggest government programs that exists, if we could even do it.

So huge change, like the federal government actually trying to write these markets by itself by providing homeowner’s insurance. But is that really feasible?

Well, in some areas, we’re actually already doing it. The government already provides flood insurance because for decades, most private insurers have not wanted to cover flood. It’s too risky. It’s too expensive. But that change, with governments taking over that role, creates a new problem of its own because the government providing flood insurance that you otherwise couldn’t get means people have been building and building in flood-prone areas because they know they can get that guaranteed flood insurance.

Interesting. So that’s a huge new downside. The government would be incentivizing people to move to places that they shouldn’t be.

That’s right. But there’s even one more problem with that approach of using the government to try to solve this problem, which is these costs keep growing. The number of billion-dollar disasters the US experiences every year keeps going up. And at some point, even if the government pays the cost through some sort of subsidized insurance, what happens when that cost is so great that we can no longer afford to pay it? That’s the really hard question that no official can answer.

So that’s pretty doomsday, Chris. Are we looking at the end of insurance?

I think it’s fair to say that we’re looking at the end of insurance as we know it, the end of insurance that means most Americans can rest assured that if they get hit by a disaster, their insurance company will provide enough money they can rebuild. That idea might be going away. And what it shows is maybe the threat of climate change isn’t quite what we thought.

Maybe instead of climate change wrecking communities in the form of a big storm or a wildfire or a flood, maybe even before those things happen, climate change can wreck communities by something as seemingly mundane and even boring as insurance. Maybe the harbinger of doom is not a giant storm but an anodyne letter from your insurance company, saying, we’re sorry to inform you we can no longer cover your home.

Maybe the future of climate change is best seen not by poring over weather data from NOAA but by poring over spreadsheets from rating firms, showing the profitability from insurance companies, and how bit by bit, that money that they’re losing around the country tells its own story. And the story is these shocks are actually already here.

Chris, as always, terrifying to talk to you.

Always a pleasure, Sabrina.

Here’s what else you should know today. On Tuesday, the United Nations has reclassified the number of women and children killed in Gaza, saying that it does not have enough identifying information to know exactly how many of the total dead are women and children. The UN now estimates that about 5,000 women and about 8,000 children have been killed, figures that are about half of what it was previously citing. The UN says the numbers dropped because it is using a more conservative estimate while waiting for information on about 10,000 other dead Gazans who have not yet been identified.

And Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, gave a press conference outside the court in Lower Manhattan, where Michael Cohen, the former fixer for Donald Trump, was testifying for a second day, answering questions from Trump’s lawyers. Trump is bound by a gag order. So Johnson joined other stand-ins for the former president to discredit the proceedings. Johnson, one of the most important Republicans in the country, attacked Cohen but also the trial itself, calling it a sham and political theater.

Today’s episode was produced by Nina Feldman, Shannon Lin, and Jessica Cheung. It was edited by MJ Davis Lin, with help from Michael Benoist, contains original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, and Rowan Niemisto, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly.

That’s it for “The Daily.” I’m Sabrina Tavernise. See you tomorrow.

• May 20, 2024   •   31:51 Was the 401(k) a Mistake?
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• May 17, 2024   •   51:10 The Campus Protesters Explain Themselves
• May 16, 2024   •   30:47 The Make-or-Break Testimony of Michael Cohen
• May 15, 2024   •   27:03 The Possible Collapse of the U.S. Home Insurance System
• May 14, 2024   •   35:20 Voters Want Change. In Our Poll, They See It in Trump.
• May 13, 2024   •   27:46 How Biden Adopted Trump’s Trade War With China
• May 10, 2024   •   27:42 Stormy Daniels Takes the Stand
• May 9, 2024   •   34:42 One Strongman, One Billion Voters, and the Future of India
• May 8, 2024   •   28:28 A Plan to Remake the Middle East
• May 7, 2024   •   27:43 How Changing Ocean Temperatures Could Upend Life on Earth
• May 6, 2024   •   29:23 R.F.K. Jr.’s Battle to Get on the Ballot

Hosted by Sabrina Tavernise

Featuring Christopher Flavelle

Produced by Nina Feldman ,  Shannon M. Lin and Jessica Cheung

Edited by MJ Davis Lin

With Michael Benoist

Original music by Dan Powell ,  Marion Lozano and Rowan Niemisto

Engineered by Alyssa Moxley

Listen and follow The Daily Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube

Across the United States, more frequent extreme weather is starting to cause the home insurance market to buckle, even for those who have paid their premiums dutifully year after year.

Christopher Flavelle, a climate reporter, discusses a Times investigation into one of the most consequential effects of the changes.

On today’s episode

Christopher Flavelle , a climate change reporter for The New York Times.

Background reading

As American insurers bleed cash from climate shocks , homeowners lose.

See how the home insurance crunch affects the market in each state .

Here are four takeaways from The Times’s investigation.

There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.

We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.

Christopher Flavelle contributed reporting.

The Daily is made by Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Sydney Harper, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Ben Calhoun, Susan Lee, Lexie Diao, Mary Wilson, Alex Stern, Dan Farrell, Sophia Lanman, Shannon Lin, Diane Wong, Devon Taylor, Alyssa Moxley, Summer Thomad, Olivia Natt, Daniel Ramirez and Brendan Klinkenberg.

Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Julia Simon, Sofia Milan, Mahima Chablani, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello, Isabella Anderson and Nina Lassam.

Christopher Flavelle is a Times reporter who writes about how the United States is trying to adapt to the effects of climate change. More about Christopher Flavelle

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